The main purpose of this ongoing blog is to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day and are archived on each prior post. I’ll refer to extreme or temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Much Colder and Stormier Weather Pattern on Tap for U.S. Ironically Part of Climate Change
Dear Diary. Every winter we see cold snaps, many of which are accompanied by winter storms and downright nasty weather. This past December we had a dearth of these across the United States and Canada because it was the warmest December in history across North America brought to us by climate change:
For the U.S. and Canada combined, December 2023 was 7.8F (4.3C) above the 1991-2020 normal, and 3.6F (2.0C) warmer than the second warmest December. Canada and the U.S. each had their warmest Decembers individually. pic.twitter.com/lLnRftzcFG
— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) January 5, 2024
Since our climate isn’t entirely broken yet, the law of averages would dictate that a pattern change is in the offing, and indeed due to a stratospheric warming event, the rest of January will prove to be much colder and stormier. You can read my post on stratospheric warming events as they relate to climate change here:
The following operational model won’t get all details right since it is 192 hours out in time, but its general predicted pattern fits with ensembles:
Wow! Looks like next week we will see a record cold system in the West trapped by near record warm high latitude blocking ridges. We may see another case of widespread record chill produced by climate change influenced polar vortex contortions. @MichaelEMann @KHayhoe @judah47 pic.twitter.com/PmDk9N2nBm
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) January 5, 2024
As usual when I send out a winter tweet, such as the one from above, I get a lot of flak from climate denial naysayers. It’s no wonder because record chill caused by climate change is very counterintuitive. The positive 500 millibar anomalies on the above chart that I tweeted out are some of the highest that I have ever seen for January across the Arctic.
Impressive high latitude blocking will dislodge arctic cold southward into the Western and Central US by mid-January. Near record-low monthly 500hPa heights are possible, and corresponding anomalous cold is expected across the Intermountain West and parts of the Plains. pic.twitter.com/Lvnlnq2AU2
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) January 5, 2024
We will probably see some reports of record warmth coming from the Arctic area. We potentially could rack up hundreds of reports of record chill coming from the Pacific Northwest and the northwest third of the nation during mid-January.
This would be wild for places like #Portland and #Seattle where record daily lows are likely, and of course the rest of the West. #WinterIsHere @foxweather https://t.co/KIoIQql2yu
— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) January 5, 2024
❄️An outbreak of arctic air is on the way into the United States starting next week. Midday ECMWF EPS data suggests abnormally cold air will surge southward into the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Plains before eventually surging into the Great Lakes and East as well. pic.twitter.com/TVFcfJuSId
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) January 5, 2024
This weekend into this coming week we will see a transition to this colder and stormier weather pattern Already one system has the potential to end New York City’s snow drought and most certainly will bring the first significant snow to most of the Northeast:
UPDATED Key Messages for this weekend's East Coast winter storm. There continues to be increasing confidence in heavy snow in the interior Mid-Atlantic and New England. Coastal impacts are still expected in the Northeast, and icing is expected in the Southern Appalachians. pic.twitter.com/jkeiChsTLZ
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) January 4, 2024
BREAKING: We have not one, but TWO newly named Winter Storms: #Ember and #Finn.
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) January 4, 2024
Both could bring very heavy snow and blustering winds, impacting millions this weekend and early next week.
We’re going in-depth on both storms NOW on @wunderground! pic.twitter.com/AEl7XlqCIT
Using TWC nomenclature, Finn will be much more powerful than Ember and will produce an old-fashioned blizzard across portions of the Midwest with severe storms in the Southeast and flooding rain on top of the snowpack left by Ember next week:
#Storm #1 hits the Northeast this weekend, then Storm #2 drives southeast across the Western US and eventually cuts out a deep trough over the center of the nation for high impact weather both on the warm and cold side for the Eastern US next week. pic.twitter.com/m49GzGqlv5
— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) January 5, 2024
Meanwhile, next week's #storm will be packing a punch not only in the form of winter weather, but severe weather for parts of the Southeast as well. https://t.co/2kSCxMzytj
— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) January 4, 2024
I normally do NOT put out 10-day model loops. However, I couldn't resist showing the "pitching machine" throwing one storm after another across the U.S., each one bringing down colder and colder air in
— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) January 4, 2024
their wake. #WinterIsHere pic.twitter.com/FKd8fdHNmS
A third system behind Finn will dig into the Pacific Northwest and produce not only a lot of snow but that record cold weather I referred to after January 10th.
Suffice it to say, meteorologists will be very busy during January after dusting off cobwebs from inactivity during December:
An updated Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook has been issued. https://t.co/VBxTZCpCic pic.twitter.com/k2UYXRTOix
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) January 5, 2024
Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
❗️EXTREME HEAT COMING
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
Next days South America will witness a terrible heat wave with temperatures up to 45C,nights well over 30C and high humidity.
The THIs will be locally among the worst heat indexes ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.
PARAGUAY will be the most affected. pic.twitter.com/0J0VfoXGYf
Record warmth in Europe switched from West to East of the Mediterranean.
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
24.2C at Sifilke in TURKEY and 24.0C at Larnaca in CYPRUS broke their records for January.
Next days thousands of heat record will fall allover Central Asia ,than East Asia. pic.twitter.com/f47ziTp2JD
Caribbeans and Central America with unprecedented January heat
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
DOMINICA smashed again its record with 33.4C at Canefield
CURACAO with a MIN. temp of 27.2C had its January hottest night on record
39C in Mexico
Records are falling today in Oceania,Asia,Africa,North & South America pic.twitter.com/3gp9OWSFqQ
Record heat spread to JAPAN.
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
Warm air from West reached the country with some January records in the North Honshu
Most important record was 11.3C at Yokote (Akita Prefecture).
Every single month in the past 25 had heat records in Japan, some months with >1000 records.
Map JMA pic.twitter.com/36wLDqBTU3
Update: EUROPEAN COLD SPELL: -44C !
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
Lowest temperature in Scandinavia since 1999.
Currently as low as -44.3C and dropping in #Finland, with Sweden and Norway also below -43C.
-45C might be just around the corner. https://t.co/CIa3ziQOx7
Cold weather continues across parts of northern Europe with both Finland and Sweden provisionally recording their lowest temperatures this century ❄️ pic.twitter.com/kDJtQIHx3w
— Met Office (@metoffice) January 5, 2024
Here is more brand-new December and 2023 climatology:
2023 was the warmest year on record – not just from this dataset, but likely in the last tens of thousands of years. Since 1940, here's how 2023 ranked:
— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) January 5, 2024
Global: 1
Global Ocean: 1
Global Land: 1
N. America: 1
S. America: 1
Europe: 2
Asia: 2
Africa: 1
Australia: 15
Antarctica: 13 pic.twitter.com/IA1loQ5uWs
The Contiguous U.S. is currently in last place for season-to-date snowfall. pic.twitter.com/IundRxco6Y
— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) January 6, 2024
Brazil's Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the last 6 months is a staggering -3.9 (the grid cell average is -2.4). SPI units are standard deviations. The recurrence interval of an SPI of -3.9 is VERY long. https://t.co/cCoZyBYIjp pic.twitter.com/qEjT5ZeTza
— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) January 6, 2024
December 2023 in #Argentina was cooler and wetter than normal in Central/Eastern areas, warmer in the North and Southwest,while it was drier in the West.
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
2023 as a whole was record warm in the Central/North areas including the hottest year on record in the capital Buenos Aires. https://t.co/cdldhKp5kM
December 2023 in the #Philippines was another exceptional hot month with record heat throighout the month,specially for hot nights.(left map).
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
It was also a dry month, specially in the North. (right map).
Maps are credit of Pagasa. pic.twitter.com/UdA6lLARoJ
Never ending record heat in Oceania and SE Asia:
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
Indonesia is facing continous record heat and severe drought:
36.0C at Maumere,Flores Island broke the January record
PHILIPPINES with insanely hot nights:record highest Tmin 27.1C at Puerto Princesa
It won't ease anytime soon…. https://t.co/kJ3gHaxWBs
2023 in Australia was 0.98c above the 1961-90 avg- tied 2016 as 8th warmest yr on record. Despite Aug-Oct being the driest 3 month period on record, rainfall was near avg (1.7% above).
— Cameron H 🇦🇺 (@Hitchy04) January 4, 2024
Record floods, drought, heatwaves & severe storms dominated 2023. Few cold records fell vs hot pic.twitter.com/oCQ0UQ38HE
December 2023 in #Croatia was another record warm month with temperature anomalies between +1.6C and +4.4C above average (left)
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
2023 as a whole was the warmest year on record
with temperature anomalies between +0.7C and +1.9C vs 1991-2020 (right). Exceptional
Maps by DHMZ. pic.twitter.com/ZxnlUskqr0
In #Bulgaria 2023 was also the warmest year on record.
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
With an average temperature of 12.9C it beats by 0.4C the previous hottest year 2019.
With almost +3C anomaly December ended an exceptional year. See historic yearly temperatures and 2023 by month stats by Meteo Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com/NQ15mCcjkW
#Serbia also had record warm December which ended the warmest year on record including in the capital Belgrade which data starts in 1888.
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 5, 2024
Details 👎 https://t.co/7cLN8txMGO
Uh, you could say it was quite a bit warmer than average in the #Arctic during December 2023… 😅
— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) January 5, 2024
Data from https://t.co/e7aUafgc7S pic.twitter.com/hjvMdFXwpK
Here is More Climate and News from Friday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
What's up with 2023? (Not just the temperature!)https://t.co/lPWG02n7RP via @RealClimate
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) January 5, 2024
Global temperatures in 2023 were really weird.
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) January 5, 2024
For almost every other year we can pretty reliably predict temperatures (red dot and bars) based on the long term trend, the prior year, and the El Nino / La Nina conditions at the start. For 2023 this model completely breaks down: pic.twitter.com/sBcIMxTVaW
Warming is proceeding at about 0.28C/decade. So, in a very crude sense, we would expect El Nino-boosted 2023 to be about 0.7*0.28C = 0.2C warmer than El Nino-boosted 2016. Which is what is was.#TruthIsBadEnough https://t.co/t2CtBrd8oG
— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) January 5, 2024
🚨 I don't think this should surprise anyone – last year's average #Antarctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record…
— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) January 5, 2024
Data averaged from January to December (@NSIDC; https://t.co/aUqFYm6GYc) pic.twitter.com/1GVchcd88r
January ECWMF seasonal shows El Niño decaying through spring, but not quite as fast as some models. Reaches neutral around the start of hurricane season. Only goes out to July but this is definitely a favorable Atlantic look – will be curious to see forecasts in coming months. pic.twitter.com/TVm3rFZML4
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) January 5, 2024
Just this.#ClimateCrisis https://t.co/XzRMNuYsDK
— Brian McHugh 🌏🏳️🌈 (@BrianMcHugh2011) January 5, 2024
UK floods – and deaths – will keep rising without proper defences and conservation https://t.co/Qz2JQAKh9z
— Guardian Environment (@guardianeco) January 5, 2024
I discuss how to talk about climate change to encourage action w/Jeff Douglas of @cbcradio https://t.co/J6Gead52x0
— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) January 5, 2024
The desertification of southern #Europe is happening in real-time. The island of #Sicily is becoming a barren land. They have set a series of records month after month. October and November were the warmest in modern History. They had above-average #temperatures also in December. pic.twitter.com/SMTx5slscX
— Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) January 5, 2024
New methane entering the atmosphere stabilized from August to September at 156.5 ppb.
— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) January 5, 2024
If you have no clue what this graph means, here is a recent blog post I wrote about it. This is my own idea for tracking new methane entering the atmosphere each month:https://t.co/4DSImvYmXG pic.twitter.com/dNTxf9GZQU
🗣️📢🆘🔥🌊🌍🌊🔥🆘🌿👇
— Robert Redmayne Hosking 🔥🌍🔥 (@rhosking252) January 5, 2024
Solidarity….! @ClimateWorrier3 ✌️💚🌱
Week 104: #ClimateStrike #FridaysForFuture #PeopleNotProfit https://t.co/Uvct4Q3QrH
More from the Weather Department:
We have teams stationed across the Northeast today for Winter Storm #Ember!
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) January 5, 2024
No cable? Watch our LIVE field coverage on our TV app: https://t.co/Feaf8zT3Ip pic.twitter.com/BMIbklaFWL
Power outages could be a big story by midweek next week. Back to back systems… with rains… snow… melt… more rains… then huge winds. Gust maps continue to show widespread 50mph+ across the eastern US. Some even higher along the coast! Early Wednesday AM here shows the… pic.twitter.com/zeVT1TWTWJ
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) January 5, 2024
12z ECMWF going with the BOGO severe weather threats along the Gulf Coast next week. Will be interesting to track the progress of these – definitely gives an "El Niño" vibe. Good luck to all the Gulf Coast METs out there! pic.twitter.com/zOPtV4DFfX
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) January 5, 2024
Next week's #severe threat is increasing in the Deep South. From late Monday night into Tuesday, both supercells and a strong squall line should combine with high shear for a #tornado threat. Some of the tornadoes could be significant. It's uncertain how far north it will extend. pic.twitter.com/vZOQXryMm1
— Craig Ceecee, Ph.D. (@CC_StormWatch) January 5, 2024
River flooding potential through Tuesday. Some of these places will get two rounds of good rain. Others will have snow with rain to follow, melting that snow…. stay alert in flood prone areas! https://t.co/FKY2jwfads
— Jacqui Jeras (@JacquiJerasTV) January 5, 2024
Precipitable water values running nearly 500% of normal (5.5 sigma) and a powerful low pressure system will set the stage for a highly impactful storm in the Eastern US next week. Flooding potential could be particularly significant in parts of the Northern Mid Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/TlaNjcmZDW
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) January 5, 2024
BBC News – Lincolnshire farmer's heartbreak as his land floods again
— Brian McHugh 🌏🏳️🌈 (@BrianMcHugh2011) January 5, 2024
'It just seems like when's this going to end'
It's barely starting #ClimateChange https://t.co/EcPxNHOAwn
WATCH: Drone footage captures Wichita, Kansas, blanketed in snow as Winter Storm #Ember has already brought several inches to the area.
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) January 5, 2024
📸 @CharlesPeekWX pic.twitter.com/LwEw5L9Big
Today’s News on Sustainable Energy, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:
Yes hardly a surprise
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) January 5, 2024
The fossil fuel industry own these climate summits designed to block real climate action
Cop29 will be led by Azerbaijan’s ecology minister who is oil industry veteran https://t.co/WWfFKl062G
Power companies continue to find ways to stymie rooftop #solar. Here’s Duke Energy’s effort to kill the industry in North Carolina 👇🏼 https://t.co/AOqcQ4Ehvb
— John Morales (@JohnMoralesTV) January 5, 2024
Jennifer Granholm on Red Sea, Energy Markets, Gas Prices https://t.co/BlEkO0INoy
— Peter Sinclair (@PeterWSinclair) January 5, 2024
Bochum, Germany to extract hot and cold water from abandoned coal mines to provide zero-emission district heating and coolinghttps://t.co/Mxhf62TCC1
— Mark Z. Jacobson (@mzjacobson) January 5, 2024
Germany emissions hit a 70-year low last year as Europe’s largest economy reduced its reliance on coal. #Germany emitted 673m tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2023, 73m tonnes fewer than in 2022. https://t.co/gwEtMjYVRz
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@dorfman_p) January 5, 2024
Good morning with good news: End of December saw huge solar farms completed in China, Chile & Wisconsin. Three Gorges Corp connected 3.8GWs of solar in China. In Chile, 480MW project was completed. Wisconsin fully operated its largest solar farm (300MW).https://t.co/gI2f0DaZcB
— John Raymond Hanger (@johnrhanger) January 5, 2024
Your 'moment of doom' for Jan. 5, 2023 ~ Unbearable news from the Arctic.
— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) January 5, 2024
"climate change is likely increasing the bears' exposure, as diminishing sea ice keeps them on shore longer and forces them to subsist on prey such as dead birds."https://t.co/Kzs3HSzCMH
More on the Environment and Nature:
Humans are creating the third great extinction. If we don't change – 99.9% of critically endangered species will be lost & it will take the earth more than 3 million yrs to recover.
— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) January 5, 2024
We have solutions to the #climate crisis, implement them. #ActOnClimate#climateaction pic.twitter.com/vhJm3FGIle
Rubber is now a worse deforester than coffee or cocoa and is closing in on palm oil for the top spot.
— Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) January 6, 2024
And the damage could be about to escalate sharply, thanks to EVs, which wear out tires faster than conventional cars, thereby raising demand for rubber.https://t.co/0mUqbJdr9M
Disgusting – Ireland has destroyed over 80% if its wetlands – the highest rate on in entire planet and continues to destroy what remains https://t.co/xxlJ97CtXI
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) January 5, 2024
Somewhere along the way we lost sight of the fact that when we harm nature, we harm ourselves.
— Green is a mission (@Greenisamissio1) January 5, 2024
We need to return to our roots and protect what we have and rebuild what we have destroyed.
Nature is priceless.💚🐝🌿🌱☘️🌳🌲🍀💚 pic.twitter.com/DjSKqaTdPW
More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:
Eyewitness video captured a destructive landslide in Wajima, Japan, triggered during the deadly earthquake on Monday.
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) January 5, 2024
The landslide crashed into a road, downed power lines and destroyed several homes. pic.twitter.com/UbdyWqklqm
Here's when we'll see full moons in 2024! 🌕
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) January 5, 2024
More astronomy events you won't want to miss in 2024 — including the Super Harvest Moon Eclipse: https://t.co/9yv5PME1sS pic.twitter.com/GVcYzNKDjd
Night Thoughts
— Green is a mission (@Greenisamissio1) January 5, 2024
Referring to science💚
Tropical forests cool the earth by 1° degrees.
Trees do not only bind CO2.
The strength of the cooling effect through biophysical effects of forests has been underestimated until now.💚🌿🌱☘️🌳🌲🍀💚 pic.twitter.com/493VDyRCr1