The Climate Lottery is a forecast contest free to play by giving your picks in an e-mail or in this post’s comment section. No prizes will be given out for the contest, which is for educational purposes only. The main purpose for the contest is to get climate change conscious people interested in National Center for Environmental Information climate products. The special account that I have set up for the contest is firstname.lastname@example.org. This time I will make a personal pick, following along with any players.
The National Center for Environmental Information ranking numbers for average temperatures of the lower 48 states for Summer 2023 will be posted on or shortly after September 8th, 2023, which will be the official “Climate Lottery” numbers of the contest. Any subsequent changes by NCEI after their initial posted rankings will not be valid for the contest…but those ranking numbers will change with time.
The winning Climate Lottery numbers for Spring 2023 (MAR, APR, MAY) were 45/67/119 with a Power Ball number of 84 for the season, meaning that the Spring 2023 was the 46th warmest spring in recorded history for the United States.
Hello again to all weather and climate geeks out there. Spring 2023 turned out to be above average, temperature wise, for most of the United States. If you wish to play “The Climate Lottery” pick one number between 1 and 129 (with 1 representing the coldest possible ranking and 129 being the highest possible ranking) for June, July and August 2023. Also, pick a “Power Ball” or overall ranking number for the summer season as a whole between 1 and 129. The Power Ball ranking will serve as a tiebreaker for any close picks between contestants. Your picks are NCEI rankings for average temperatures across the lower 48 states. Because 2023 is the 129th year that the National Center for Environmental Information has been ranking years since 1895, all months for 2023 will have a warmest ranking of 129. Likewise, the year 2023 will have a highest ranking of 129. Monthly rankings for 2023 will have a range from 1 to 129 with the coldest ranking being the number 1.
Please give your picks to Guywalton10@gmail.com or in the comments section at the end of this post before July 5th, 2023. If you wait until just before July 5th to make your picks, you can make an educated guess as to what the ranking for June will be and also a heads-up guess for July. All data can be found at the National Center for Environmental Information site noted here:
The Power Ball (or overall National Center for Environment Information) number for Spring 2023 for the lower 48 states was 84, which was the 46th warmest ranking and above the average ranking of 64.5 for the lower 48 states. I’ve defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year.
Chances for an entire season of below average temperatures are becoming much less likely across the lower 48 states due to carbon pollution. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change and to get people to look at NCEI data. Of course, as far as the globe goes, the larger an area that is compared to average, the more likely that area is to be above long-term averages. What has happened this decade is yet more proof of the Climate Lottery game being loaded for warmth in the United States. Balls coming out of the Climate Lottery hopper are likely to have high numbers.
Here’s a breakdown of the National Climatic Center’s ranking numbers by state for Spring 2023, which was ranked as 84th warmest or 46th coldest (or a Powerball ranking of 84):
The warmest conditions relative to average occurred in the eastern and southern United States. The West was colder than average but not near record coldest.
The following is a breakdown of each month for Spring 2023. Each chart shows “Climate Lottery” numbers for each state (or rankings) from a scale of 1 to 129.
In March the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 67 (out of 129 through the year 2023):
Spring started out warmer than average across the East. The West was very cold, seeing much below average conditions. March was the coldest month relative to long term temperature averages for Spring 2023 and overall colder than long term averages…a rarity in this age of global warming.
In April the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 67 (out of 129):
The West remained cold while the East remains warm. Many states across the East had rankings that got pegged as top ten warmest Aprils.
In May the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 119 (out of 129):
The overall pattern flipped with the West seeing above average temperatures while the East got chilly. Washington State saw its warmest May on record.
The following are the rankings, so far, for individual months or “Climate Lottery number picks” from 2014-2023:
The average ranking for 2023 is 64.5 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest 129. I have color coded all well below average temperature rankings for this post at or below 54 blue and all those above temperature rankings at or above 74 red, with rankings + or – 10 from the mean value of 64 black for near average temperature rankings. With time, the rankings for each individual month, season and year will change as more data becomes available from NCEI. Also, for reference, the annual or “Mega Ball” numbers are shown on the chart. For example, the Mega Ball number for 2022 was 111, meaning that 2022 was the eighteenth warmest year on record for the lower 48 states.
Seasonal or Power Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are MAR/APR/MAY, summer JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCEI rankings for seasons are not merely an average of rankings of individual month of a season or year, as was the case for Spring 2023- 45/67/119 P.B.84:
Notice that since the start of 2014 only one out of the last thirty-eight seasons have been below average or “blue.” Thirty-one out of the last thirty-eight seasons since 2014 have been “red” or above average. Spring 2023 definitely adds to our warm stats and was also colored red. Indeed, the Climate Lottery hopper is very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history. Yes, the “Casino of Climate Averages” is cheating causing the “House of Warming” to win just about every season due to carbon pollution.
I hope that everyone will have a great, safe summer…and stay cool.
Guy Walton…”The Climate Guy”