Extreme Temperature Diary- Friday September 12th, 2025/Main Topic: Study Ties Fossil Fuel Pollution Directly to Deadly Heatwaves

New Study: All recent global heatwaves have been amplified by man-made climate change, with one-quarter of these events being virtually impossible without climate change. Paper in thread… 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-09-11T12:52:45.025Z

For reference, the study, "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors" by Yann Quilcaille et al., was published in Nature in 2025www.nature.com/articles/s41…

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-09-11T12:53:18.881Z

‘Time to Make Polluters Pay’: Study Ties Fossil Fuel Pollution Directly to Deadly Heatwaves | Common Dreams

‘Time to Make Polluters Pay’: Study Ties Fossil Fuel Pollution Directly to Deadly Heatwaves

“We’re talking about real people who died, real crops that failed, and real communities that suffered, all because of decisions made in corporate boardrooms,” said one campaigner.

Jessica Corbett

study published Wednesday in the journal Nature establishing “that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves,” is fueling fresh calls for fossil fuel giants to pay for the deadly impacts of their products.

With previous “attribution studies,” scientists have generally looked at single extreme weather events. The new study, led by Sonia Seneviratne, a professor at the Swiss university ETH Zurich, is unique for its systematic approach—but that’s not all.

“Past studies have mostly looked at emissions from people and countries. This time, we’re focusing on the big carbon emitters,” explained lead author Yann Quilcaille, a postdoctoral researcher in Seneviratne’s group, in a statement.

“We are now at the point where we recognize the serious consequences of extreme weather events for the world’s economies and societies—heat-related deaths, crop failures, and much, much more,” he said. “People are concerned about who contributed to these disasters.”

The researchers found that climate change made 213 heatwaves from 2000–23 “more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.” They also found that global warming since 1850-1900 made heatwaves 2000-09 about 20 times more likely, and those 2010-19 more likely.

“Overall, one-quarter of these events were virtually impossible without climate change,” the paper states. “The emissions of the carbon majors contribute to half the increase in heatwave intensity since 1850-1900. Depending on the carbon major, their individual contribution is high enough to enable the occurrence of 16-53 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate.”

Anybody surprised? Emissions from 14 fossil fuel giants drove 213 major heatwaves since 2000, making >50 deadly ones 10,000× more likely and adding up to +2.2°C increased intensityAll while knowing the impact of GHG emissionsCorporate negligence =Human costwww.theguardian.com/environment/…

Ian Hall (@ianhall.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T16:37:54.804Z

While the study highlights the climate pollution of “14 top carbon majors,” including the governments of the former Soviet Union, China (coal and cement), India (coal), and the companies Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, ExxonMobil, Chevron, National Iranian Oil Company, BP, Shell, Pemex, and CHN Energy, Quilcaille said that “the contributions of smaller players also play a significant role.”

“These companies and corporations have also primarily pursued their economic interests, even though they have known since the 1980s that burning fossil fuels will lead to global warming,” the researcher added.

In a review of the study for Nature, climate scientist Karsten Hausten from Germany’s Leipzig University pointed out that “Quilcaille and colleagues’ results, as well as the attribution framework that they have developed, provide a tool to continue the legal battle against individual companies and countries.”

“This study is a leap forward that could be used to support future climate lawsuits and aid diplomatic negotiations,” he wrote. “Finally, it is another reminder that denial and anti-science rhetoric will not make climate liability go away, nor will it reduce the ever-increasing risk to life from heatwaves across our planet.”

Hausten was far from alone in recognizing how the new research could contribute to climate cases. Jessica Wentz, senior fellow at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University, pointed to the International Court of Justice’s landmark advisory opinion from July that countries have a legal obligation to take cooperative action against the global crisis.

“Initially, when a plaintiff needs to show that they have standing in a case, they have to allege that they have an injury that is traceable to the defendant’s conduct,” she told CBC, suggesting the new study will help establish that connection.

“The methodologies that underpin these types of findings can also be used in more fungible ways to look at not only the contributions of the carbon majors, but presumably you could use a similar approach to start looking at government,” Wentz said.

Christopher Callahan, a scientist at Indiana University Bloomington who has published research showing that economic damages from rising extreme heat can be tied to companies such as Exxon, said that “this study adds to a growing but still small literature showing it’s now possible to draw causal connections between individual emitters and the hazards from climate change.”

“There is a wealth of evidence now that major fossil fuel producers were aware of climate change before the rest of the public was and used their power and profit to undermine climate action and discredit climate science,” he said, adding that it is “morally appropriate” to hold companies accountable for the emissions of their products.

Callahan also gathered some of the relevant research in a series of posts on Bluesky, noting that on the same day that this new study was published, another team ”quantified the thousands of heat-related deaths in Zurich, Switzerland that can be attributed to climate change—and showed that dozens of these deaths are due to the emissions from these individual firms.”

“Together, this science—and the broader attribution science that preceded it—are building a clear scientific case for climate accountability,” he concluded.

Several US states and municipalities in recent years have launched lawsuits and passed legislation designed to make Big Oil pay for driving the deadly climate emergency—and earlier this year, drawing on an essay in the Harvard Environmental Law Review, an American woman filed the first climate-related wrongful death suit against fossil fuel companies.

In a Wednesday statement to The Guardian about the new study, Cassidy DiPaola, a spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign, said that “we can now point to specific heatwaves and say: ‘Saudi Aramco did this. ExxonMobil did this.‘”

“When their emissions alone are triggering heatwaves that wouldn’t have happened otherwise,” she added, “we’re talking about real people who died, real crops that failed, and real communities that suffered, all because of decisions made in corporate boardrooms.”

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Jessica Corbett

Jessica Corbett is a senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams.

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NEW: CO2 emissions traceable to the world's biggest fossil fuel firms (ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, etc.) played a substantial role in driving dangerous & deadly heat waves, new research showsResults are esp. relevant for #climatelitigation 🧑‍⚖️ insideclimatenews.org/news/1009202…

Dana Drugmand (@danad1012.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T19:56:48.718Z

"By tying increasingly severe and common heat waves to specific companies, the new research could find its way into courtrooms where individuals, cities, states and countries are seeking to hold fossil fuel producers accountable for climate damages." www.cnn.com/2025/09/10/c…

Keeley Townsend (@ktowns.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T16:51:21.671Z

UNBELIEVABLE AUTUMN ARCTIC TROPICAL NIGHTSWORLD CLIMATIC HISTORY REWRITTENNever happened anything like this: Records broken by 3C/5C in Norway.Today's NIGHT MINIMUMS above the Arctic Circle20.4 Reipa19.0 Stokka18.7 Evenes18.9 Leknes18.2 Setsa and BodoAnother milestone in world history …

Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T13:02:11.818Z

MEDITERRANEAN HEAT WAVESOnce again extreme heat both West and East of the Mediterranean (as usual only Italy is skipped):Next days both Iberian Peninsula and Turkey will see temperatures around 40C for the whole next weekOnly UK & Ireland will be cooler than average in Europe

Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T10:44:08.905Z

ASIA EXTREME HEAT FROM WEST TO EASTWidespread record heat continues from West to EastKUWAIT CITY min 34 max 48IRAN Minimum 34.5C HonesyniehNever been that hot so latePAKISTAN Min 28.5C ChillasAUTUMN WORLD RECORD HOTTEST NIGHT >1200m aslUZBEKISTAN-TAJIKISTAN Still 40C+

Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T17:26:13.205Z

JUAN DE NOVA AGAIN !Absolute insanity in the tropics with records broken no-stop for YEARS.Today the French Indian Ocean Island of Juan de Nova with a Min of 25.9C had its hottest September night on record,tying the record of 2024.All months of 2023,2024 and 2025 were records

Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T10:26:12.632Z

🌡️SOUTH AMERICA HISTORIC HEAT WAVE It's day #1 of an EXTREME HEAT WAVE which will rewrite South American history as one of the most brutal ever seenToday up to 42.9C at Sao Miguel do Araguaia BRAZIL but that's nothing to what 's coming‼️Dangerous heat (43/44C)Map by INMET@karilimax.bsky.social

Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-09-11T21:52:14.837Z

August 2025 Worldwide,according to NASA, had a temperature anomaly of +0.58C above the 1991/2020 normal (+1.14C vs 1951/1980) and was the 3rd warmest August on record, behind 2024 and 2023 and above August 2016 (4th).

Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-09-11T19:10:06.757Z

The North Pacific Marine heat wave is absurd. Most of the northern half of the basin is at/ near records. Some of this is natural oscillation, some likely aerosol / greenhouse forcing and feedbacks 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T12:09:07.012Z

#Deforestation alters the Amazon’s #climate (precipitation & CO2 removal) with far-reaching consequences for the global climate system. From 1985-2020 there was a significant drop in #forest cover from 89% to 79%, while #pastures increased from 4% to 15%: doi.org/10.1038/s414… #landuse #cattle

Alexander J. Stein (@ajstein.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T12:57:53.752Z

🌴New in Geo!🌴'Assessing the carbon sequestration potential of church forest and their implication for climate change mitigation in Jabitehinan District, Ethiopia' by Addisu Bitew Birhanie et al.doi.org/10.1002/geo2…

Geo: Geography and Environment (@geoopenaccess.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T13:21:35.620Z

<sigh> Again, a warming climate helps disease spread. Example this time – Dengue Fever. 🧪Link: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/…

Dr. Or M. Bialik |📚|🔬|🌊|⚒️ (@obialik.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T13:00:32.192Z

We just started reading Talking Climate by @katharinehayhoe.com and are here to recommend it to you all. All hits no filler!

Sea Us Rise (@seausrise.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T14:01:29.008Z

And for what @michaelemann.bsky.social and I actually say about doomerism (perhaps this is the “smear” he’s referring to?!), please read: www.sustainableviews.com/the-antidote…

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-09-12T13:12:57.364Z

The EPA’s endangerment finding is under threat. This peer-reviewed climate science is essential to protecting public health & regulating greenhouse gases.Scientists: add your name to AGU’s letter defending the science before 15 Sept.Sign on ➡️ buff.ly/yuUbZo4#ClimateScience #ScienceIsEssential

AGU (American Geophysical Union) (@agu.org) 2025-09-10T19:44:01.001Z

Wildfires in #Canada are still burning in September, fueled by extreme heat and lightning strikes. In British Columbia, around 150 fires remain active, marking one of the worst #wildfire seasons on record. #ClimateEmergency #BCwildfire

(@adamplatform.bsky.social) 2025-09-10T15:50:24.560Z

Hurricane Killing Shear! A more pleasant sight nas not been seen in September. In my decades of doing this, I can't remember a stretch in peak season with this much wind shear across such a vast area of the Atlantic. It's overwhelming to hurricanes across most of the basin. 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-09-11T22:17:07.461Z

1/ New report from @bentleyallan.bsky.social's Net Zero Policy Lab: As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures allies to follow suit, China is stepping in to power the developing world's energy transition. The scale is staggering. www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-…

Jonas Nahm (@jonasnahm.com) 2025-09-12T02:21:58.059Z

Electric aircraft goes for test run at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport | CBC News www.cbc.ca/news/canada/…

Aaron Freeman (@aaronfreemanca.bsky.social) 2025-09-09T21:30:19.682Z

As I've done with his last two books, I plan on buying multiple copies of the latest by @michaelemann.bsky.social, #ScienceUnderSiege, and giving them away to students. "Saving Us" by @katharinehayhoe.com has also gotten this treatment!

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T19:34:48.938Z

"If you can’t rebut the data, silence the scientist."Climate scientist @michaelemann.bsky.social & vaccine expert Peter Hotez reveal in their new book, Science Under Siege, how powerful interests are attacking science—and why standing up matters.yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/its-…

Climate Action Now (@climateactapp.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T19:37:31.644Z

📃 @science.org provides a review of @bakerinstitute.bsky.social fellow @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social & @michaelemann.bsky.social new book "Science Under Siege" saying "The text is a lovely interplay between history, data, and anecdote." Read more here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/…

Baker Institute Science & Technology Policy at Rice University (@stpolicy.bsky.social) 2025-09-12T13:59:43.448Z

Scientists tracking the birds in an experimental forest in New Hampshire have also tracked changes in the forest ecosystem over decades.

NPR (@npr.org) 2025-09-10T16:15:28.434321Z

I'm honoured to participate in this event hosted by Pope Leo to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Laudato Si, along with @billmckibben.bsky.social and many other colleagues & friends whose climate action is fuelled by their faith.Sign up for the live stream here: raisinghope.earth/conference/

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-09-10T19:12:56.749Z

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