The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ET’s will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ET’s (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Why a Faulty American GFS Model Is Leading to Alarmism
Dear Diary. As we have witnessed so far this summer, there have been numerous eye-opening historic heatwaves around the planet, but have some been over forecast? Pointing to yours truly, yes, I’m guilty of being overly enthusiastic about the prospects of record heat across the United States and elsewhere looking at what so far has been a faulty American meteorological model, the GFS, or Global Forecast System Model…not that I’m rooting for high heat, I just want to warn people that it’s coming in light of climate change. The public wants us to get these forecasts correct, otherwise we will start to experience the old proverbial crying wolf syndrome. In this day and age of climate change, we will see longer and worse heat episodes, but we as forecasters don’t want to come off as being overly alarmist, turning off our audience because of overly hot prognostications.
We want people to take us seriously when the real deal comes along, such as what I’ve described as a “CAT 5” heatwave that developed in western Washington and British Columbia in June of 2021.
Here is the crux of the problem:
Keep in mind that if the GFS is faulty past 168 hours out in time with the extent of heat domes, it will also not forecast storms very well, such as organized tropical systems. As I’ve often stated even before 2022 models going out past 240 hours are essentially garbage and should only be looked at for overall jet stream trends, but in the 168-240 hour out range, we have at least witnessed some decent model forecasts. This year’s GFS is giving that range a bad rap.
Here are a few GFS forecasts that have been too hot and those I suspect won’t verify nearly as torrid:
Will we see maxes above 100°F in the Plains on Monday? Probably, but as high as 118°F in the northern Plains looking at this more recent “typical” 500 millibar forecast? Not likely:
Today’s forecast chart for this coming Sunday is much more likely to verify:
Will there be some records set on Sunday across the central United States? Indeed. But all-time records? Not likely.
Here is another example of an extended GFS forecast that if verified we would be witnessing literally the hottest day in CONUS history:
And that from today’s most recent model run:
Well, you get my drift.
Overseas Europe is experiencing a historic heatwave, which will likely peak across Britain on Monday or Tuesday of next week. But how hot? Forecasters are starting to take notice of a GFS that may be overstated, falling back on the traditionally more reliable European Model:
Will we see record breaking, historic heat across Britain? Indeed. But there is a big difference between 37°C and 40°C for those who will be suffering. I’ll be reporting on which model verifies best here. And…my money is on that slightly cooler European model for obvious reasons stated on today’s main topic.
In short, GFS modelers will need to fix this hot bias soon. There are too many alarmist forecasters jumping on overly hot output stemming from this model, which hurts reputations and overall credibility of meteorologists. Let’s cross our fingers that improvements will be made going into 2023.
Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks:
Here is more June 2022 climatology:
Here is more climate and weather news from Thursday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”