The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Is the Worst U.S. Heatwave of 2023 Yet to Come?
Dear Diary. Ongoing Heatwave Chevron across the South and now a new Pacific Northwest Heatwave that I’ve dubbed Heatwave Citgo have been bad enough, but I’m getting strong indications that the worst end most widespread heat episode of this year will happen during the second half of August:
Climatologically, the second half of August remains hot for most of the nation, but usually the worst of extreme summer heat is over as high sun angles start to decrease day by day going into September. I’ve noticed over the years that most of our worst heatwaves have occurred from late June through the first half of August except for along the West Coast when offshore flow has produced the worst conditions in September. This overall weather pattern may not hold true due to climate change, though.
Updating models and ensembles from my above linked tweet here is what we see. The GFS remains the most bullish for an extremely strong heat dome to develop over the nation’s mid-section. It does have a warm bias past 168 hours out:
Note that as opposed to our current heat domes, this thing is a true 597 decameter+ monster looking at how strong the thing is forecast to be and how much area the system will be sprawling across:
Model ensembles at 168 hours out are quite bullish, as well:
The Canadian Model is in agreement:
The conservative European model agrees with others on the size and location of the heat dome, as well:
Will the heat dome grow into a true monster a few days after next Sunday? We will see:
The 850 millibar anomalies in association with the above chart are extremely hot for the Midwest:
That hot 850 millibar air sill correspond to hot readings at and near the surface form the Midwest, South, and Plains:
Of course, I’ll be linking and reposting articles with forecasts for the latter half of August as we move through this week.
Here are some other “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is more brand-new July 2023 climatology:
Here is more climate and news from Sunday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)