The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: The Climate Lottery: Fall 2024 Contest
The Climate Lottery is a forecast contest free to play by giving your picks in an e-mail or in this post’s comment section. No prizes will be given out for the contest, which is for educational purposes only. The main purpose for the contest is to get climate change conscious people interested in National Center for Environmental Information climate products. The special account that I have set up for the contest is guywalton94@gmail.com. This time I will make a personal pick, following along with any players.
I’m getting all of my information for every Climate Lottery contest here, which I hope you will refer to often:
National Maps | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)
The National Center for Environmental Information ranking numbers for average temperatures of the lower 48 states for Fall 2024 will be posted on or shortly after December 8th, 2024, which will be the official “Climate Lottery” numbers of the contest. Any subsequent changes by NCEI after their initial posted rankings will not be valid for the contest…but those ranking numbers will change with time.
The winning Climate Lottery numbers for Summer 2024 (JUN, JUL, AUG) were 129/120/116 with a Power Ball number of 127 for the season, meaning that the Summer 2024 was the 4th warmest summer in recorded history for the lower 48 states in the United States.
Hello again to all weather and climate geeks out there. Summer 2024 turned out to be the 4th warmest and the 127th coolest summer on record for most of the United States. If you wish to play “The Climate Lottery” pick one number between 1 and 130 (with 1 representing the coldest possible ranking and 130 being the highest possible ranking) for September, October, and November. Also, pick a “Power Ball” or overall ranking number for the spring season as a whole between 1 and 130. The Power Ball ranking will serve as a tiebreaker for any close picks between contestants. Your picks are NCEI rankings for average temperatures across the lower 48 states. Because 2024 will be the 130th year that the National Center for Environmental Information has been ranking years since 1895, all months for 2024 will have a warmest ranking of 130.
Please give your picks at guywalton94@Gmail.com or in the comments section at the end of this post before October 5th, 2024. If you wait until just before October 5th to make your picks, you can make an educated guess as to what the ranking for September will be and also have a heads-up guess for October.
The Power Ball (or overall National Center for Environment Information) number for Summer 2024 for the lower 48 states was 127, which was the 4th warmest ranking possible for the lower 48 states. I’ve defined individual lottery numbers as a rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year.
Chances for an entire season of below average temperatures are becoming much less likely across the lower 48 states due to carbon pollution. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change and to get people to look at NCEI data. Of course, as far as the globe goes, the larger an area that is compared to average, the more likely that area is to be above long-term averages. What has happened this decade is yet more proof of the Climate Lottery game being loaded for warmth in the United States. Balls coming out of the Climate Lottery hopper are likely to have high numbers.
Here’s a breakdown of the National Climatic Center’s ranking numbers by state for Summer 2024, which was ranked at 4th warmest or 127th coldest (or a Powerball ranking of 127):
Warm conditions relative to average were widespread across United States except in the Midwest. California, Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire and Maine saw their hottest summer on record.
The following is a breakdown of each month for Summer 2024. Each chart shows “Climate Lottery” numbers for each state (or rankings) from a scale of 1 to 130.
In June the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 129 (out of 130 through the year 2024):
Summer started out hot across the Southwest, Northeast and Florida relative to average. June 2024 was the second hottest June on record. No one state saw below average temperatures.
In July 2024 the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 120 (out of 130):
During July the most anomalously warm areas in the West, Northeast, and Northeast. Some states across the Midwest did see what would now be considered to be rare cooler than average conditions.
In August the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 116 (out of 130):
During August 2024 the Midwest continued to see near average temperatures. This time around most southern states were above average. August was the coolest of the summer relative to average. Record heat that persisted throughout the summer in California has led to more brutal wildfires in that state.
The following are the rankings, so far, for individual months or “Climate Lottery number picks” from 2015-2024:
The average ranking for 2024 is 65 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest 130. I have color coded all well below average temperature rankings for this post at or below 55 blue and all those above temperature rankings at or above 75 red, with rankings + or – 10 from the mean value of 65 black for near average temperature rankings. Record warmest months are highlighted in purple. With time, the rankings for each individual month, season and year will change as more data becomes available from NCEI. Also, for reference, the annual or “Mega Ball” numbers are shown on the chart. For example, the Mega Ball number for 2022 was 111, meaning that 2022 was the eighteenth warmest year on record for the lower 48 states.
Seasonal or Power Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are MAR/APR/MAY, summer JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall SEP/OCT/NOV. Mega Ball rankings for each year are included on the chart below. Also, keep in mind that NCEI rankings for seasons are not merely an average of rankings of individual month of a season or year, as was the case for Summer 2024- 129/120/116 P.B. 127:
Notice that since the start of 2015 only three out of the last thirty-eight seasons were near average or “black.” No season was below average or colored blue. Thirty-six out of the last thirty-eight seasons since 2015 have been “red” or “purple,” being above average. Summer 2024 definitely adds to our warm stats and was also colored red. Indeed, the Climate Lottery hopper is very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history. Yes, the “Casino of Climate Averages” is cheating causing the “House of Warming” to win just about every season due to carbon pollution.
I hope that everyone will have a great, safe fall.
Guy Walton…”The Climate Guy”
Here are more “ETs” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is more new August 2024 climatology. (More can be found on each daily post during September.):
Here is More Climate News from Thursday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Don Sutherland’s Pics: 125 118 120
P.B. 123 for Fall 2024.