Extreme Temperature Diary- Tuesday June 3rd, 2025/ Main Topic: Stripped NOAA and FEMA Are Not Ready for This Season’s Climate Changed Hurricane Season

It's a starting place, not the finish line 🤦‍♂️ FEMA's down a third of its personnel. Its hurricane plans need updating. The dedicated FEMA planners know this, but is it supported by leadership that reportedly doesn't even know it's hurricane season?www.wsj.com/politics/pol…

Michael Lowry (@michaelrlowry.bsky.social) 2025-06-03T01:29:34.596Z

Holy crap this is great! Really shows the stakes. Kudos to @johnmoralestv.bsky.social John: You’ll have to let us know if you got any angry messages.

Andrew Dessler (@andrewdessler.com) 2025-06-03T14:03:45.646Z

Hurricane season is upon us, but NOAA and FEMA are not ready

The turmoil at key U.S. agencies threatens everything from forecast quality to storm recovery.

Jeff Masters

by Jeff Masters

Hurricane season starts June 1, and above-average activity is predicted. But America’s premier agencies for protecting lives and property from these destructive storms – the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, or NOAA, and the Federal Emergency Management Association, or FEMA – are in unprecedented disarray. The chaos will likely harm hurricane forecast accuracy in 2025, as well as disaster preparation and response.

See where the National Weather Service can no longer monitor conditions around the clock, because of DOGE-led staffing cuts:

Scott Dance (@byscottdance.com) 2025-05-16T15:46:49.651Z

NOAA reeling from huge staffing losses

Massive staffing losses at NOAA from firings of probationary employees, DOGE buyouts, and early retirements have left at least eight of the 122 National Weather Service offices unable to operate around the clock. Because of the loss of staff, regular twice-per-day upper air balloon soundings – which are typically the most important ingredient in making reliable model weather forecasts (Fig. 1) – have been lost from 18% of the nation’s upper air stations. Some locations have been reduced to once-per-day launches, and a number are doing no launches at all. The Washington Post reports that since March 20, 17% of all U.S. balloon launches that should have occurred have not, mostly because of NOAA staffing losses.

The greatest data loss is in the Midwest U.S., which will cause significantly degraded forecasts of hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts in some situations. It is difficult to quantify the exact degradation, since the researchers needed to perform the “data denial” studies that could inform us have been laid off or are stretched too thin to do the research needed.

While we can expect that the National Hurricane Center will order special balloon launches in the case of a landfalling hurricane, it is questionable whether local National Weather Service offices will have the staff to comply. (And note that balloon launches are often canceled for unanticipated reasons, such as maintenance issues, thunderstorms nearby making it unsafe to do the launches, etc.) Because of the loss of balloon data in 2025, the size of the NHC cone will likely be too small in some situations, giving people overconfidence in the accuracy of hurricane forecasts. Such overconfidence can result in delayed evacuation decisions and failure to take adequate measures to protect lives and property.

Moreover, the loss of National Weather Service staff will likely affect local hurricane forecasts and warnings issued by some NWS offices serving hurricane-prone coasts. The situation is particularly acute in Houston, where the office’s website lists 11 vacancies out of a staff of 25 – a 44% understaffing.

As Alan Gerard wrote in April in his excellent Balanced Weather Substack feed, “The NWS office in Houston – one of the largest metropolitan areas in the country with tremendous vulnerability to hazardous weather – will soon be without any permanent management staff: Their meteorologist-in-charge, warning coordination meteorologist, science and operations officer, and electronics system analyst will all be retired by the end of April. While I have no doubt that remaining NWS leadership will do what they can to mitigate the impacts of this situation, there is clearly nothing ‘strategic’ about leaving this NWS office in particular without any permanent managerial staff as we approach hurricane season.”

Houston, Texas: 44% understaffed (11 of 25 positions vacant)
Miami, Florida: 25% understaffed (six of 24 positions)
Key West, Florida: 19% understaffed (four of 21 positions)
Tampa Bay, Florida: 29% understaffed (seven of 24 positions, including their meteorologist-in-charge)
Jacksonville, Florida: 9% understaffed (two of 23 positions, which happen to be two of the top three leadership positions)
Charleston, South Carolina: 22% understaffed (five of 22 positions)
Wilmington, North Carolina: 21% understaffed (five of 24 positions)
Newport, North Carolina: 14% understaffed (three of 22 positions)
Wakefield, Virginia: 0% understaffed (Zero of 22 positions)
Boston, Massachusetts: 19% understaffed (five of 26 positions)
New Orleans, Louisiana: no general staff info given, but one leadership position was unfilled: Science & Operations Officer Lake Charles, Louisiana: 15% understaffed (three of 20 positions, reported by Washington Post)
Corpus Christi, Texas: 11% understaffed (two of 19 positions)
Brownsville, Texas: 9% understaffed (two of 23 positions)
San Juan, Puerto Rico: 21% understaffed (five of 24 positions)
Honolulu, Hawaii: 10% understaffed (three of 29 positions)

Staff at regional NWS offices are also suffering a serious loss of leadership. Three of seven of the top positions are unfilled for the Southern Region, as well as three of six top positions for the Western Region. Fortunately, the National Hurricane Center is faring better than many NWS offices: a staff listing shows just 4% understaffing (3 vacancies out of 73 positions) – fewer vacancies than were listed in September 2024.

A recent effort by NWS seeks to fill 155 “critical” vacancies at particularly understaffed offices through transfers from other offices. This would be an exercise in “robbing Peter to pay Paul” since the total number of vacancies in the NWS would remain the same.

FEMA unprepared for hurricane season

When Hurricanes Helene and Milton – both made more destructive by climate change – devastated the Southeast last fall, workers at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, oversaw the government’s effort to rescue survivors and aid the recovery. FEMA has been key, too, in bolstering the country’s long-term resilience efforts, such as elevating flood-prone homes and installing drainage works. 

But according to a May 15 report from CNN, an internal agency review prepared at the direction of new acting FEMA Administrator David Richardson said, “As FEMA transforms to a smaller footprint, the intent for this hurricane season is not well understood. Thus FEMA is not ready.”

According to the CNN story, FEMA “has lost roughly 30% of its full-time staff to layoffs and DOGE buyouts, including some of its most experienced and knowledgeable senior leadership.” Furthermore, Trump officials are discussing sharply raising the threshold for states to qualify for federal disaster assistance, and both Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have advocated drastically shrinking FEMA or eliminating it.

Losing 10-30% of the agency is very bad, don’t get me wrong, but it is arguably more critical to understand who is leaving. The drain of people who have EM experience in high level positions could single handedly make FEMA dead in the water for future responses.www.cnn.com/2025/05/22/p…

Dr. Samantha Montano (@samlmontano.bsky.social) 2025-05-22T22:43:21.063Z

On May 21, CBS reported that acting FEMA administrator David Richardson – who has no emergency management experience – rescinded the agency’s strategic plan, a policy document that forms FEMA’s “organizational backbone.”

Targeted for elimination was FEMA’s Office of Resilience Strategy, which “exists to figure out how to maximize efficacy of publicly spent money on projects that build a resilient infrastructure that can withstand disaster events,” the report quoted one FEMA official as saying. “Without that guiding star, FEMA will operate as triage instead of actually trying to mitigate future damage before it happens.” The official compared its removal to “people relying solely on emergency rooms for health care rather than also getting preventative care.”

SCOOP: Less than two weeks before the start of hurricane season, the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) rescinded the agency’s strategic plan, which includes a document that guides agency priorities when responding to disasters, WIRED has learned.

WIRED (@wired.com) 2025-05-21T19:47:27.483Z

The chaos at FEMA could result in slower disaster responses, longer waits for payouts, and reduced implementation of resilience efforts, ultimately increasing damage from climate change-enhanced extreme weather. As of April 1, there was already an “unusual” backlog of requests for disaster declarations, the Washington Post reported. In addition, firings could hamper efforts to update the agency’s significantly outdated flood maps, which are critical for determining flood risk and insurance rates. 

Compounding the diminishment of FEMA’s capability for the upcoming hurricane season are the massive cuts to AmeriCorps, which has in the past provided key disaster recovery services. According to reporting from Grist, in April, “AmeriCorps placed 85 percent of its 500 staff on leave and canceled nearly $400 million in grants out of a $1 billion budget. The move effectively ended the service of an estimated 32,000 AmeriCorps workers across the country.”

After disasters, AmeriCorps was everywhere. What happens when it’s gone?Elon Musk's DOGE has gutted the 30-year-old national service agency.grist.org/extreme-weat…#Musk #DOGE #Weather #Disaster #Climate #AmeriCorps

Grist (@grist.org) 2025-05-15T18:09:48.199Z

Bottom line: With climate change already making the strongest hurricanes stronger, and with the U.S. now in the midst of a historic period of landfalls from high-end Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes, critical deficiencies at NOAA and FEMA for the upcoming hurricane season represent a serious risk to lives and property.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

Join me Friday night at 8:45 pm EDT for my talk, "Hunting Hugo: The Hurricane Hunters’ Wildest Ride". I'll talk about my final flight with the Hurricane Hunters in 1989, which was nearly my final flight in a more permanent sense!

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2025-05-28T14:42:29.964Z

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Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a… More by Jeff Masters

Jeff Master’s and Bob Henson’s “Hurricane season is upon us, but NOAA and FEMA are not ready” was first published on Yale Climate Connections, a program of the Yale School of the Environment, available at: http://yaleclimateconnections.org. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 license (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5).

Get ready for years of brutal heat, say top scientists. So if you thought, “It can’t get worse than last summer”…the planet would like a word. Meanwhile, our government’s response? Roll back #climate protections. Brilliant. 🙄 #DefendOurClimate

Change the Chamber (@changethechamber.bsky.social) 2025-06-01T13:50:12.690Z

#BigOil doesn't care about you. Big Oil will burn you right to the ground. They're doing it already #abpoli #Climate www.eenews.net/articles/hea…

Bentley (@bigclimate.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T15:02:34.580Z

While global mean sea level rise over recent decades has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases, the regional pattern in the Pacific has likely resulted from sulfate aerosol emissions – with important implications for the coming decades… www.science.org/doi/10.1126/…

John Fasullo (@jfasullo.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T20:22:00.293Z

Stunning image of wildfire smoke from the Manitoba fires across eastern North America over a three day period. GOES Imagery from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University and NOAA

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-06-02T20:20:46.928Z

Thanks to all of you who helped @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I keep the extreme weather/climate change posts rolling for the rest of the year!

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2025-05-31T15:57:27.710Z

US climate scientists need all the help they can get. Including from foul-mouthed comedians! 🤡😱😱 Watch Emmy Award-Winning David Cross team up with Prof Michael Oppenheimer in the US launch of the hit series "Climate Science Translated". #climate #arresteddevelopment #climatescience

Climate Science Breakthrough (@climatescibreak.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T11:54:58.293Z

Good to hear the hemorrhaging at NWS will slow. Still, they have lost 560 people this year and are only allowed to hire 125. And the new hires will not be on board to help during the coming hurricane season, for the most part.

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T20:35:32.107Z

Good news, but hear me out…What if we didn’t do all these layoffs in the first place and just were hiring additional meteorologists and other specialists to get out of the short-staffing that has been part of the NWS for years?What would a fully-staffed NWS be able to accomplish?

Chris Vagasky (@coweatherman.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T15:13:15.291Z

“This is not the leadership we want to see from Australia, if they are to be the host of COP at the same time,” said Vanuatu’s minister for climate adaptation Ralph Regenvanu.Vanuatu criticises Australia for extending gas project while making Cop31 bid – @australia.theguardian.com #climate

The Australia Institute (@australiainstitute.org.au) 2025-06-03T06:08:40.316Z

Sure! Let’s give this lot approval to have at more of our rare & precious ecosystems???!!! #auspol #climate #oil #gas #ningaloo #wapol

Blair Palese (@blairpalese.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T22:17:47.611Z

The trains in the Netherlands are 100% #windpowered. Over 5,500 trips a day 100% #renewable.We have the solutions. Implement them. #ActOnClimate #climateemergency #climateaction #climate #energy #renewableenergy #renewables #GreenNewDeal

Mike Hudema (@mikehudema.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T18:08:12.306Z

Soooo the NZ Govt is now being criticised by internationally acclaimed climate scientists in the @financialtimes.com. Why? Because Luxon & co are manipulating maths to hide NZ's grossly oversized methane emissions instead of taking action to cut #climate pollution.www.ft.com/content/2ea6…#nzpol

Rhiannon Mackie (@rhiannonm.bsky.social) 2025-06-01T21:44:27.070Z

Republicans are redirecting a big chunk of the already earmarked $42.5 billion in infrastructure bill broadband grants to Elon Musk's slower, shittier Starlink satellite service, a move that could delay these deployments by years

Karl Bode (@karlbode.com) 2025-06-03T18:28:22.553Z

Some rare good news on funding to support a critical weather infrastructure effort!

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T20:10:08.800Z

Hawaii makes history as first state to charge tourists to save environment.A Hawaii vacation will cost you more in the near future thanks to a new “green fee” that the governor signed into law this week.grist.org/politics/haw…#Travel #Vacation #Hawaii #GreenSky #GreenFee #Climate

Grist (@grist.org) 2025-06-02T13:40:06.422Z

Economics is mainly about trade offs, the costs of choices…Politics is about the denial of trade offs, pretending ‘there is no alternative’Australia must decide if it wants a 20 yr plan for gas expansion or reef tourism…it cant have bothWherever our gas is burned, it harms our reef #climate

Dr Richard Denniss (@richarddenniss.bsky.social) 2025-06-02T06:59:03.210Z

🦋 Good Night Everyone 🦋 ~~~ Sweet Dreams ~~~Wishing All Of My Friends A Wonderful New Month Of June ☀️#Photography#Nature#Climate#Sunset#GoldenHour

Karen Barry-Davies (@wheelan.bsky.social) 2025-06-01T22:09:06.904Z

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