The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😜
Main Topic: U.S. Average Temperature Forecast for Spring
Dear Diary. It will be the start of meteorological spring by March 1st, so once again as we do on this blog, it is time to make a forecast for the coming season. As forecast, Winter 2025/26 had above average temperatures for the lower 48 states, another sign of anthropogenic climate change.
At the very start of spring, it’s time for me to make another attempt at a forecast for average seasonal temperatures in the U.S. This forecast will be very broad and not specific for any one state comprising the continental United States (or lower 48 states).
So how did the forecast work out for Winter 2025/26? Here is a link to the post for that forecast:
By March 10th the National Center for Environmental Information will finish their climatological assessment for Winter 2025/26 so our verification is not complete as of February 27th. Let’s do fill in ranking numbers with 1 being the coldest and 132 warmest for a verification for months during 2026, which have already been assessed:
Here are my two cents for a broad, rough forecast for the U.S. for Spring 2026, which I guarantee to be warmer than this past winter, of course, as the amount of daylight increases across the Northern Hemisphere.
First, I like to look at spikes on graphs because they can tell us something. Last year we had a slight uptick in temperature averages. There has only been one instance of more than three consecutive years of warming (1950-1955). Will we see three consecutive springs of warming? Looking at trends, I think so. Spring 2025 was right up there because it was the 2nd warmest on record:
Second, I like to look at water temperature anomalies surrounding North America just before the start of a season to get a sense of how much potential anomalous heat can be added to the atmosphere across the continent. Here is what we see:
Anomalously warm seas surround most of North America. It has cooled some off of the East Coast some since the last season began in December. Mostly warmer than average conditions lead me to think that SST influence will be a positive factor for this coming season. Also, it appears that the current ENSO Pacific is moving into an El Niño phase. This usually means that the polar vortex over Canada will get weaker relative to average with time, but we may not see this effect until summer. This might be a warming factor this season.
We do note that the first week or two of March will be warm across most of the United States, so spring will get off to a very warm start:
Here is the National Weather Service forecast for Spring 2026:
I can’t pinpoint one area where their forecast is incorrect, but overall, I think that this spring’s ranking should verify a tad above that of Spring 2025, which was 131.
Next, we can get another clue looking at prior National Center for Environmental Information ranking and temperature record count data. For this I like to drag out my “Record Scoreboard” (updated through 02/24/2026):
For these data sets all monthly ratios of > 10 to 1 DHMX to DLMN or > 10 to 1 DLMN to DHMX are in bold type. The rankings are for the lower 48 states with the warmest ranking since 1895 of average temperatures being 132 and 1 being the coldest as of 2026. Blue colors represent cold months and red warm. Those months and years with counts close to a 1 to 1 ratio of highs to lows are colored black. Boldly red-, blue-, or purple-colored months, such as January 2020 and October 2024, have ratios of >10 to 1 daily record highs to lows or <1 to 10 daily record highs to lows, and are either historically hot or cold, most of which have made news. All-time record hot or cold ranked months are highlighted in purple. I’ve subtracted Alaska record counts so we can better compare apples to apples with record totals and rankings for the lower 48 states.
Looking at trends, warm months should continue, but it looks like we are due for a cooler than average month like that of January 2025. Will that month be during this spring? Possibly, but it won’t be in March.
I’m predicting that March 2026 will be much above average with April and May 2026 being above average. Here is the link to avg. rankings per year for the lower 48 states since 1895:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings
Just about every season in the future will see above average temperatures, so seasonal forecasters are beginning to “chuck it,” discounting colder than average scenarios due to carbon pollution.
Here are all seasons ranked for the last decade:
The last time we had a near average spring season was in 2019. An average ranking on the above chart would be 66 as of 2026. Will Spring 2026 buck this trend? I think not.
Here is my bottom-line forecast for Spring 2026:
“I think that Spring 2026 will be ranked well above average. I’m going to forecast that the Spring 2026 ranking will be around 131 but possibly as low as 120, with above average confidence given all of the factors written within this post. It should be slightly warmer than Spring 2026 coming in at 2nd warmest next to that spring.
My forecast for Fall 2025 of a ranking of 110 + or – 10 rankings was 9 rankings too cool, that verification was at 129.
We will see how well my forecast ranking of near 120 + or – 10 rankings for Winter 2025/26 worked out in a few days.
As of 2026 the top ranking for any month or season would be 132 since climatological rankings for the United States started in the year 1895. Carbon pollution is definitely making below average seasons so rare that they are about to be a thing of the past. As stated, I’m going to guess that Winter 2025/26 gets ranked around 131 but possibly as low as 120, and with near average confidence given all of the factors in this post.
Have a fantastic spring.
Here are some “ETs” recorded from around the U.S. the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is More Climate News from Thursday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)