Extreme Temperature Diary- Saturday November 25th, 2023/ Main Topic: American Cold Wave Naming Rules for This Winter

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The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: American Cold Wave Naming Rules for This Winter

Dear Diary. It’s that time of the year for people to be on guard against dangerous cold weather. So far, the U.S. has had only minor cold episodes through late November with mostly above average temperatures for the fall, which is what is to be expected in a warming world due to carbon pollution. Nevertheless, there will be a few dangerous episodes of cold outbreaks this coming season even if the United States has one of the warmest winters in history overall. Later this century due to global warming we may not end up with any cold weather threats during an entire winter, though…one arguable good effect from carbon pollution.

Like heat waves, cold waves should be named if they become significant enough to threaten the health of many people in order to better inform the public of danger. The public and news media react better to named weather systems. We started naming cold waves in 2020 with names coming from the Greek alphabet. This year I will be naming major CAT3 cold outbreaks or higher after snow gods if they are not accompanied by a TWC named winter storm:

Best Snow Gods Ever – Greek, Norse & More – Wilderness Redefined

Here is the list from the above linked article:

  1. Aisoyimstan: Blackfeet Nation Winter God
  2. Chione: Greek Goddess of Snow
  3. Heikki Lunta: Finnish American Snow God
  4. Nane Sarma – Iranian Grandma Of Winter
  5. Morana: Slavic Winter Goddess
  6. Poli’ahu – Hawaiian Snow Goddess
  7. Skaði – Norse Winter Goddess
  8. Ullr – Norse Winter God
  9. Kuraokami: Japanese Dragon Of Rain And Snow
  10. Jack Frost (Old Man Winter): American Personification Of Winter
  11. Nane Sarma (Bibi Barfi): Iranian Grandma Of Winter
  12. Morana (Marzaana): Slavic Goddess Of Winter And Death
  13. Poli’ahu: Hawaiian Snow Goddess
  14. Skaði: Norse Goddess/Giant Of Skiing & Snowshoes
  15. Tengliu (Teng Liu): The Chinese God(dess) Of Winter
  16. Ullr: Norse “God” Of Winter Hunting

We did have what I’ve defined as a “CAT 1” cold wave in October, which did produce a few hundred daily records and caused people to take notice that indeed cold weather needs to be taken seriously.

Here is my 2020 post for cold wave naming rules, which has been tweaked for this year:

Extreme Temperature Diary- Monday November 30th, 2020/ Main Topic: A Saffir-Simpson Type Scale For Cold Waves – Guy On Climate

Below is a good example of a minor “CAT 1” event from November 2020, similar to the one happening in the Rockies and western Plains three years later today. On 11/30/2020 we didn’t have an Arctic outbreak, with chilly conditions mainly being generated from a cold system aloft. Most readings were above freezing south and east of the Great Lakes, but gusty winds were generated from a Midwestern storm system sending wind chills below freezing:

Advisories for snow were out for eastern parts of the Midwest this morning. Here we see that freeze warnings were out for much of the Gulf Coast:

Wind advisories were colored brown.

Most people didn’t need to bundle up too much to stay safe from this CAT1 cold wave.

A CAT 2 cold wave would be of medium strength but would not be historic in nature. These would have some Arctic air entrainment, with fairly widespread NWS wind chill advisories and large areas of below average temperatures at least the size of Texas. In all cases, departure from average over a given area needs to be taken into account. We would not see significant numbers of monthly cold record temperature reports from CAT 2’s, but many daily records could be set.

A “major” CAT3 cold wave would produce thousands of cold records and would be accompanied by life threatening drops in temperature as the first Arctic air of the system rapidly penetrates into the United States.

Unlike heat waves, where we sometimes see drought or “anti-storms,” cold waves likely will be accompanied by named Weather Channel winter storms. “Winter Storm Dane” was the TWC incarnation from 11/30/2020 referenced here, which encompassed the midwestern National Weather Surface watches and warnings shown on the above advisory map. I would propose that cold outbreaks be named for TWC winter storms if they coincide with them to get a quick reference for the public. Sometimes we can get a major cold outbreak without a winter storm, though. In those cases of mainly Arctic outbreaks, I’ll name the cold outbreaks after winter gods. The first one would be Cold Wave Aisoyimstan.

Also, cold outbreaks can remain long after a winter storm has left the scene and can feed into the next system. In those cases the cold outbreak name should continued to be referred to. A fresh reinforcing cold outbreak behind a subsequent storm should get the new storm system’s TWC name, but only if the cold wave gets up to major CAT 3 strength.

A CAT4 cold wave would be even more historic and dangerous. Usually these encompass most of the nation. Wind chills would need to go below 0°F across at least one large section of the country about the size of Texas to meet criteria. Numerous monthly and all-time records would also need to be threatened to meet criteria.

And finally, we have the top dog of the scale, CAT5. During this day and age of global warming these might already be extinct animals. The historic cold outbreak of February 1899 here in the U.S. would be a good example of a CAT5. Read about that here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1899

Perhaps you disagree with my system for naming cold waves. That’s fine if you can suggest improvements, keeping in mind that we need to come up with the best scientific methods to communicate weather threats to the public. It has been my experience that named systems of any sort register with the public better than those not named. The great Louisiana Flood of 2016, which was not named, is just one example that did not get nearly as much press compared with named tropical storms that have had much less adverse effects. Maybe you would prefer that all cold waves regardless of rank get names. Let’s debate this in the coming weeks over winter as we inevitably see some life threatening chill penetrate the nation.

Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

Some more October and November 2023 climatology:

Here is More Climate and Weather News from Saturday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Today’s News on Sustainable Energy, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

More from the Weather Department:

More on the Environment and Nature:

More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:

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Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

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