The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: U.S. November and Fall 2024 Record Scoreboard and Climatological Review
Dear Diary. It’s time for our monthly climatological review. Here on this site, we usually present monthly summaries near the 10th of each month, and each is available by clicking the link below:
https://guyonclimate.com/category/record-scoreboard-climatological-reviews
I’m repeating this mantra every month:
The lower 48 states just experienced the warmest fall on record thanks to climate change.
Fall 2024 using 1901-2000 mean data got ranked by the National Center for Environmental Information for the lower 48 states as warmest or 130th coolest since records began being kept in 1895 at +4.08°F(2.26°C) above average.
November 2024 using 1901-2000 mean data got ranked by the National Center for Environmental Information for the lower 48 states as 6th warmest or 125th coolest since records began being kept in 1895 at +3.59°F(2.00°C) above average.
The above data was from:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings
Holy Smokes! Only one state, Oregon, fit into the above average category. Five states saw their warmest fall on record with the rest having a much above average season:
During November above average warmth occurred mostly in the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. Most reports of record warmth came from the eastern 2/3rds of the nation throughout the month. Most reports of record chill came from the Rockies and Southwest. Four states saw their record warmest Novembers:
You can check out record totals for yourself on my NCEI record archives:
NCEI Record Count Archive – Guy On Climate
Here are my two U.S. Daily Record Scoreboards updated through 12/09/2024 (data compiled from the following NCEI site):
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records
I’m also keeping tabs on record report totals to verify a scientific study I helped to complete in the decade of the 2000s. We’ll eventually see how skewed ratios of record warm to cold reports get by the year 2100, which the study mentions as 50-1 for DHMX vs. DLMN:
Brand new for 2024: I’ve started to add NCEI anomalies (F° departure from 1901-2000 data) on my record scoreboards. I’d like these record scoreboards to be a quick and dirty reference tool and a template for future NCEI record site graphics.
DHMX= Daily High Max Reports. DLMN= Daily Low Min Reports. DHMN= Daily High Min Reports. DLMX=Daily Low Max Reports.
Boldly highlighted red, blue, or purple colored months, such as December 2023 and June 2021, that have ratios of >10 to 1 daily or <1 to 10 of daily warm to low records are either historically hot or cold, most of which have made news. NCEI rankings are for the lower 48 states with the warmest ranking since 1895 of average temperatures being 130 and 1 being the coldest as of 2024. Blue colors represent cold months and red warm. Those months and years with counts close to a 1 to 1 ratio of highs to lows are colored black. All-time record hottest or coldest months and years are boldly colored in purple. NCDC rankings have been color coded (under tabs in each file) such that values of 54 to 74 are black representing neutral months or years (+ or – 10 from the average ranking of 64).
Totals are record reports for the entire United States including all territories minus those from Alaska. I’ve subtracted those from Alaska to get a better representation of what has occurred across the lower 48 states in association with lower 48 state rankings.
November 2024 had approximately a 3.5 to 1 ratio of record DHMX to DLMN individual record counts, so the color I used for that month was bold red on the top chart.
November 2024 had approximately a 3.5 to 1 ratio of record DHMN to DLMX individual record counts, so the color I used for that month was bold red on the bottom chart.
Due to climate change, we are seeing fewer blue colors on these Record Scoreboards with time.
The average temperature lower 48 state ranking for November 2024 was 125, which was colored red since it was warmer than average.
I color rankings of +10 to -10 from the average ranking for the lower 48 states of 65 black, indicating that these are near average temperature wise. The top warmest ranking for 2024 would be 130 since rankings began in 1895.
We are seeing that so far December 2024 has been well above average for most of the country except the Midwest. An early December cold shot produced below average conditions across the Midwest and South, but meteorological models predict much warmer than average temperatures for most of the CONUS for the bulk of the rest of December. December 2024 should be above average for the lower 48 states as a whole, perhaps cracking another top twenty ranking looking at meteorological models.
Interestingly, overall ratios for 2024 are now higher than historic yearly ratios for other years from the 2020s as shown here…which is no surprise given how hot the globe is during this record hot year thanks to climate change:
One other interesting note. The first 59 months of the 2020s have been the warmest such 59 months in recorded history since we have seen a figure of 2.42°F/1.33°C above average for the 60-month period from November 2019 to November 2024. This fact is reflected in record ratios here:
Here is much more detailed climatology for November 2024 as complied by NOAA:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202411
Assessing the U.S. Climate in November 2024
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had five continental landfalls and was above-average; The contiguous U.S. is on pace to end 2024 as one of the warmest two years on record
Courtesy of GettyImages
Published
December 9, 2024
Related Links
November 2024 U.S. Climate Report (Available December 12, 2024)
National Temperature and Precipitation Maps
Climatological Rankings Explained
Key Points:
- The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was above-average with 18 named tropical systems, 11 hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes. It will be one of the costliest seasons on record once a full evaluation of estimated cost has concluded.
- Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton each made landfall in the continental U.S. during 2024, tying for fourth place with 1893, 2004 and 2005. A record six landfalls occurred in 1886, 1985 and 2020.
- The first significant lake-effect snows of the season began in late November and brought widespread snow accumulations of 1–3 feet across portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York state.
- Following a very dry start to fall, the extent of moderate to exceptional drought across the contiguous U.S. was reduced by nearly 10.5% during November.
- September–November and January–November were the warmest such periods on record for the nation.
Other Highlights:
Temperature
The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in November was 45.3°F, 3.6°F above average, ranking sixth warmest in the 130-year record. Generally, November temperatures were much-above average to record warm across much of the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. and near- to below average across large portions of the West. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Maine each ranked warmest on record with an additional 25 states ranking among their top-10 warmest November on record.
The Alaska statewide November temperature was 13.6°F, 1.9°F above the long-term average, ranking in the middle third of the 100-year period of record for the state. Near-average temperatures dominated most of Alaska with above-normal temperatures observed across much of the North Slope and Aleutians.
The meteorological autumn (September–November) average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 57.6°F, 4.1°F above average, ranking warmest on record. Temperatures were above average to record warm across most of the contiguous U.S., with record-warm temperatures observed in Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maine. An additional 18 states ranked among their warmest three autumns on record.
The Alaska autumn temperature was 27.9°F, 2.0°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the record. Temperatures were above average across most of the North Slope, Aleutians and Northeast Gulf regions with near-average temperatures dominating the remaining portion of the state.
For January–November, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 57.1°F, 3.3°F above average, ranking warmest on record for this period. Temperatures were above average across nearly all of the Lower 48 with record warmth concentrated across the Deep South and from the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, extending into parts of the central Appalachians. Twenty-two states ranked warmest on record with an additional 11 states ranking among their warmest three such year-to-date periods on record.
The Alaska January–November temperature was 30.3°F, 2.3°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the historical record for the state. Temperatures across much of the state were above the long-term average for this 11-month period with near average temperatures observed across parts of southcentral Alaska, the Northeast Interior and Panhandle regions.
Precipitation
November precipitation for the contiguous U.S. was 2.98 inches, 0.75 inch above average, ranking 17th wettest in the historical record. Precipitation was above average along parts of the central and northern West Coast and from the southern Rockies and Deep South to the Great Lakes. Below-average precipitation was observed across portions of the Southwest, northern Rockies, south Texas and along much of the East Coast. Oklahoma ranked wettest with Kansas ranking second wettest on record for the month, helping to improve and eliminate drought conditions across large portions of the central U.S.
Across the state of Alaska, the average monthly precipitation was 2.13 inches, ranking as the 14th-driest November in the historical record. It was drier than average across much of the Panhandle, Aleutians, West Coast and in parts of the interior regions and overall, snowfall was correspondingly below-average, especially across western Alaska.
The U.S. autumn precipitation total was 6.23 inches, 0.65 inch below average, ranking in the driest third of the September–November record. Precipitation was below average from the Southwest to the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes and Northeast. It was also drier than average across a large portion of Texas. Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maine each ranked driest on record for this three-month period. Autumn precipitation was above average along portions of the West Coast and from the central Rockies to parts of the Southeast.
The Alaska autumn precipitation ranked in the driest third of the record with wetter-than-average conditions observed across central and northern portions of the state and average to dry conditions dominating elsewhere.
The January–November precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 29.15 inches, 1.57 inches above average, ranking in the wettest third of the 130-year record. Precipitation was near to above average across much of the West Coast, parts of the central Rockies, southern and central Plains and across much of the eastern half of the Lower 48. Louisiana ranked eighth wettest on record. Conversely, precipitation was below average across parts of the Northern Rockies and Plains, Southwest, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
The January–November precipitation ranked in the middle third of the 100-year record for Alaska.
Drought
According to the December 3 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 43.6% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down nearly 10.5% from the end of October. Moderate to exceptional drought was widespread across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, Northern Rockies and Plains, parts of the Southwest and Texas and in pockets across the central and southern Plains as well as the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast.
Drought conditions expanded or intensified across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southwest. Drought contracted or was reduced in intensity across the central Appalachians, Great Lakes and Midwest, central and southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Pacific Northwest and Hawaii.
Monthly Outlook
According to the November 30 One-Month Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, above-normal monthly average temperatures are favored across the western U.S. and much of Alaska. Below-normal temperatures are most likely to occur from the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic to New England. Parts of the Northern Rockies and Plains and much of Alaska are favored to see above-normal monthly total precipitation while below-normal precipitation is most likely to occur across portions of the Southwest. Drought improvement or removal is forecast across parts of the Deep South and Northern Rockies and Plains. Persistence and/or development is more likely across portions of the Southwest, Northern Rockies and Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast.
According to the One-Month Outlook issued on December 2 from the National Interagency Fire Center, above-normal significant wildland fire potential during the month of December is most likely to occur across parts of southern California, central Texas and from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic.
This monthly summary from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia and the public to support informed decision-making. For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive November 2024 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on December 12, 2024. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.
More:
Here are more “ETs” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is some brand-new November 2024 climatology. Other items are archived on prior December posts:
Here is More Climate News from Monday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)