Friday November 24th… Dear Diary. Black Friday shoppers are out in full force, and the weather is definitely cooperating. In fact, due to this warm weather pattern across the West and Plains some might consider shopping in shorts. The warmth is the big news, so I won’t include a climate news segment on today’s post. Record warmth due to carbon pollution (yes I will state that) can be found at these circled sites today:
No matter what meteorological model I look at the warm pattern should persist through the end of this month if not beyond. For a slightly different graphical perspective here we see high 500 millibar heights from the European model over the continental U.S. a warm looking pressure pattern (the black lines):
The warmest day in the Plains would be Monday looking at southwest flow ahead of a front.
These model near surface forecast temps are eye popping for Monday:
Speaking of the Plains already records are starting to tumble there this afternoon. St. Cloud MN set a record of 57 (old record 56 in 1990). I’ll add more lists of records to this post for 11/24/17 if they cross my radar. These are what I have seen so far:
- St. Joseph MO set a record max of 75F
- Lancaster CA 85F (old record 81 in 1949)
- Palmdale CA 84F (old record 78 in 1949)
- Sandberg CA 73F (old record 72 in 1995)
Here are today’s maxes:
Near record warmth made another appearance in the Southwest and spread eastward into the Plains. It wasn’t as toasty in Southern California as on Thanksgiving Day.
The Climate Guy
Thursday November 23rd… Dear Diary. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
I’m skipping the daily climate news topic today. As far as the U.S. goes the big news is the Thanksgiving holiday heat, which will last through the end of this month in some areas of the country by all indications.
Here are the potential records (circled) for today:
Here is a list of Thanksgiving records:
It was the hottest Thanksgiving in the history of Los Angeles with a maximum of 92F:
The maximum of 87F ties the highest record in recorded history at San Diego (87F also recorded there on 11/24/1932):
We had some record warmth in Las Vegas:
It was toasty at Phoenix but that city failed to crack 90F:
In Stockton CA there was a daily record max of 75F. The old record was 74F set on Thanksgiving Day in 2005.
On Black Friday we will see spring temperatures for most of the West and Plains where many more records will be set. This is a case in which shoppers won’t mind the weather at all and welcome the warmth:
The weather pattern responsible for all of this warmth in the U.S. should continue for at least the next week.
The Climate Guy
Wednesday November 22nd… Dear Diary.
For those of you in the Southwest this holiday😉:
Here is today’s singled out, highlighted climate related topic:
The melting of sea ice won’t significantly raise sea levels. It’s the melting of ice on land primarily in Antarctica and Greenland that will put civilization in jeopardy as we move forward in time. Think about ice cubes melting in a glass of water. These cubes won’t change the level of the water in the glass. However, if you add more ice and water to the glass the water level will rise. Calving glaciers coming off Antarctica and Greenland add ice and water to the planet’s glass, the oceans.
Now new studies are coming out indicating that the melting process from two particular glaciers in Antarctica may be much quicker than originally thought. While writing this the author, Eric Holthaus, literally felt sick:
Ice Apocalypse
Rapid collapse of Antarctic glaciers could flood coastal cities by the end of this century.
“In a remote region of Antarctica known as Pine Island Bay, 2,500 miles from the tip of South America, two glaciers hold human civilization hostage.
Stretching across a frozen plain more than 150 miles long, these glaciers, named Pine Island and Thwaites, have marched steadily for millennia toward the Amundsen Sea, part of the vast Southern Ocean. Further inland, the glaciers widen into a two-mile-thick reserve of ice covering an area the size of Texas.
There’s no doubt this ice will melt as the world warms. The vital question is when.
The glaciers of Pine Island Bay are two of the largest and fastest-melting in Antarctica. (A Rolling Stone feature earlier this year dubbed Thwaites “The Doomsday Glacier.”) Together, they act as a plug holding back enough ice to pour 11 feet of sea-level rise into the world’s oceans — an amount that would submerge every coastal city on the planet. For that reason, finding out how fast these glaciers will collapse is one of the most important scientific questions in the world today.”
https://grist.org/article/antarctica-doomsday-glaciers-could-flood-coastal-cities/
Here is a picture from the article of one of the two glaciers whose water content could put coastal cities underwater:
Pine Island Glacier calving front. NASA ICE
O.k. Now back to seeing what’s up with our United States “record scoreboard.” After a few days in which only a couple of hundred records were recorded we see that there are slightly more daily record highs than lows in the NCEI database for November 2017:
Over the last week ahead of a front in the south-central states about 300 reports of daily record high maxes were added. Very few reports of daily record lows were added. The cold shot moving through the Northeast last weekend that was responsible for lake effect snow only established a handful of records. The current western and plains warm spell should produce a significant number of records, which will be tacked onto the 829 total we have for November 2017. (Data as of 11/18 in the NCEI database)
The following are lists of records tied or set today, WED 11/22:
From San Diego:
Wow! Anaheim got up to 100F today.
Here is a list of records and toasty maxes out of the Seattle WA NWS office:
I’ll add additional reports as I see them.
Thanksgiving will be much more like May than late November in the West:
Here are some toasty temps forecast for the Las Vegas area:
The Climate Guy
Tuesday November 21st… Dear Diary. Here is today’s singled out, highlighted climate related topic:
Just like green energy one of the best methods for helping to solve the climate crisis would be to employ good old fashioned plants, which are the best natural “carbon sequestering machines.” Now scientists are trying to develop plants with deeper roots which can do this job much more efficiently:
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-climate-change-plants-20171117-htmlstory.html
(Graph by Marit Jentoft-Nilsen and Robert Simmon, using data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Maps by Robert Simmon and Reto Stöckli, using MODIS data)
On the charts from the article seasonal carbon flux, or when carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere waxes and wanes, has not changed much in the last few decades due to reliable foliage. In this case we need to trust scientists not to produce “Frankenplants.” I don’t think they will do that.
We are beginning to see the appearance of the well forecast Thanksgiving holiday western heat on short range models. If the GFS is correct Phoenix will see a max of 90F tomorrow, which would be the latest 90 degree reading at that location in recorded history:
Many other locations in the West should also see records as well as the western High Plains.
There has been no change to the forecast strength and orientation of the western heat ridge at Thanksgiving for the last several days:
Due to the heat dome maxes at Phoenix should stay near record levels all week long:
Should it get to 90F at Los Angeles on Turkey Day the record would be tied for Thanksgiving there in recorded history:
Record warmth is also expected in and around Las Vegas:
Tonight’s updates: Ah the records are beginning to fall in the West. Here are some from Southern California from today:
Here were some potential records from 11/21 from Rob Elvington:
I’ll add more to this post today if relevant information crosses my radar.
The Climate Guy