Extreme Temperature Diary- August 1, 2018/ Hot Topic: August Heat Targets Europe, California, and Asia

guyonclimate_mi5tor

Wednesday August 1st… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing post will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials)😊. Here is today’s main climate change post related hot topic:

August Heat Targets Europe, California, and Asia

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line.) 

The wild summer of 2018 weather wise has now rolled into August. Unfortunately heat domes responsible for extreme conditions will strengthen the first week of this new month. Let’s take a look using 500 millibar anomaly charts. For those of you unfamiliar with these charts here is a primer: 

https://guyonclimate.com/2017/10/02/dissecting-the-heat-dome/

First I noted a few days ago that the monstrous heat wave affecting Europe will probably get more intense in some areas heading into early August:

European model forecasts another blistering heat episode for Europe in early August.

7:58 AM – 30 Jul 2018
Tomorrow will be verification time for the above panel. What is the latest version of the European model forecasting? Here is the answer:

There is not that much discernable change. At 850 millibars we see this:

Note the big red spot near Portugal. On Friday 8/3 the worst of the anomalous heat will be in that country where we are expecting thermometers to breach all-time records:

Greg Diamond Retweeted WMO | OMM

Temperatures could challenge the all-time EUROPEAN record of 48°C (118.4°F) set in Athens, Greece on July 10, 1977

in starts today says Details at http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/temperaturas?dia=hoy&zona=penyb
1:23 AM – 1 Aug 2018

50°C in Portugal, later this week, would be devastating. So far, temperature in Portugal has never exceeded 47.4°C (2003).

Via

Extreme heat for Spain and Portugal confirmed – up to 50°C possible in some areas!

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-on-the-extreme-heat-wave-for-iberia-confirmed/

2:33 PM – 31 Jul 2018

This is a really worrisome setup for wildfires: temps above 110°F, relative humidity below 20%, and downslope winds.

Spain and Portugal may experience some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe later this week, stoking a serious wildfire threat: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Blistering-Heat-Serious-Wildfire-Threat-Heading-Spain-and-Portugal
12:14 PM – 1 Aug 2018
Quoting Bob’s piece:
“A ridge of high pressure that’s been lodged over and near northern Scandinavia will be eroding later this week, as a separate ridge builds northward from Africa and a trough approaches Europe from the northwest. This pattern will pull hot, dry air from Algeria and Morocco into the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), along with some Saharan dust. By the weekend, a building surface high across Ireland and Britain will help push the scorching air mass back southward across the higher terrain of central Iberia. This will lead to downslope flow across parts of Portugal and southwest Spain that could heat the air even further.”
By August 6th we see this forecast heat dome orientation over Europe:  
All areas across Europe should cool, but temperatures should remain above average. If it’s one thing that I’ve learned in my 30+ year career these ridges will wax and wane, but once in place over the summer, they are stubborn to dissipate or move resulting in no overall weather pattern change. The same holds true for the western U.S. this year. After getting a very brief break this weekend our unfriendly ridge should get back above 597 decameters next week:
If any monsoon moisture gets entrained into the ridge I fear that lightning strikes may set off more fires from “dry” thunderstorms, which are typical in California from this weather pattern.
The eastern U.S. should continue to be protected from extreme heat looking at the ridge/trough configuration.
I saw this new writeup from Dr. Jeff Masters concerning Asia today:
 

The Korean peninsula is home to about 75 million people, so this is affecting a lot of folks. Many (most?) in North Korea presumably lack A/C.

Wednesday was the hottest day in Korean history, with all-time highs in both Séoul and Pyongyang
8:40 AM – 1 Aug 2018
Let’s take a quick peak at the current 500 mb ridge over South Korea and the forecast:

Eek! If anything the heat ridge in far eastern Asia strengthens this week. We’ll see if this translates to more record heat in Korea.

I’ll be reporting any records from these heat domes in the next week.

……………………………………………………………………………………..

Tomorrow’s forecast max map looks interesting. It may get above 90F in Boston while remaining below 80F in Atlanta due to the “atmospheric river”/trough in place over the East. In the West the cooling trend will continue in the Pacific Northwest while the remainder of the area continues to smolder. A warming trend will continue across the Plains:

Here is some July 2018 climatology:

It was one of the warmest Julys ever in 2018 across SW CA. Several climate stations set all time warmest July. Downtown L.A. had its 3rd warmest July since 1877.
8:23 PM – 31 Jul 2018
July was a very warm month here along coastal Southern . Minimum temperatures were a record high! This is partly due to record high sea surface temperatures (see Scripps Pier – ).

California Climate Tracker:

8:00 AM – 1 Aug 2018

July ended up being the hottest month on record, with records going back to 1893. The average high temperature for the month was 98°F and the average low was 65.6°F. Reno tied the overall warmest low temperature of 77°F, initially recorded on July 23, 2006
1:31 PM – 1 Aug 2018

July 2018 across Canada: A warm one for most, with record warmth in parts of the East, up to 3°C above normals for Montréal! Meanwhile up north, it was the coldest July since 1964 in Resolute.
3:54 AM – 1 Aug 2018
I shudder to think what conditions will be like the summer after the next strong El Nino in the Northern Hemisphere:

Summer heat waves notwithstanding, the Earth as a whole has been a bit cooler in 2018 than the past three years, following the super-El Nino of 2015/2016:
8:01 AM – 1 Aug 2018

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The Weather Channel

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