Potential Severe Flooding From Barry Day Four
Yesterday we saw a reprieve from Barry due to dry air at mid and upper levels infiltrating the north part of the system giving Nee Orleans and much of Louisiana a mostly sunny day and time to prepare for whatever comes next. This dry air also impeded Barry’s development. Today there is no such luck. While convection remains mostly on Barry’s southern flanks as of this writing, the system’s overall structure has improved allowing max winds to come up to 65 mph. It now appears that Barry will attain minimal hurricane status before making landfall in central Louisiana late on Saturday.
Barry will continue to be a slow mover; thus the main threat will continue to be heavy rain. There remains an outside threat of New Orleans’s levees getting topped if rainfall forecasts are too little. The stronger Barry gets today the heavier rainfall will be tomorrow, and guidance unfortunately has been forecaster a stronger system this morning.
As usual, here are social media notes, which I will add to during the course of Friday. This time around the latest info will be at the top of the list:
Recon era since 1944, north half Gulf of Mexico: only 7 July hurricanes. If only include first half of July, just 4 hurricanes: 2 in 2005 (Cindy, Dennis), Claudette ‘03, Bob ‘79. If #Barry makes it to #hurricane it’ll be in rare company. But impacts same as strong tropical storm! pic.twitter.com/OLvxGe3y2p
— Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb) July 13, 2019
And there will be wind 🌬 as Barry is forecast to be a Hurricane as it makes landfall on Saturday. 🌀
— Ryan (@RyanMaue) July 13, 2019
Maximum wind gusts of 70-90 mph, strongest near coast but no picnic well inland. pic.twitter.com/UvfJ2ZwPK9
0z NAM highlights risk for catastrophic flooding caused by training heavy rain bands over southern LA. While it’s impossible to know where these bands will set up, it illustrates what CAN happen SAT-SUN. NOLA not out of the woods. *THIS IS A MODEL NOT A FORECAST* #BARRY #LAwx pic.twitter.com/l5bCqo71hx
— Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) July 13, 2019
Just 3 years ago the #BatonRouge area saw a once in a lifetime flood. 10-15 billion in damages, 140,000 homes damaged and 13 fatalities. The area received 10-20 inches in a week.
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) July 12, 2019
In next 48 hours 10-20” of rain is forecast for same people. #TSBarry pic.twitter.com/HL9pa9tdj9
Pretty substantial amount of lightning occurring within the deep convection on the southern portion of #Barry this evening. pic.twitter.com/hbPVp7APmg
— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) July 13, 2019
Critical information links https://t.co/E2CQc8agfi
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 12, 2019
72 knots on an elevated oil platform in the Gulf! https://t.co/UdumDUjmQo
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 12, 2019
Mammoth rainfall and severe flooding: those are the big threats from Tropical Storm #Barry in SE Louisiana this weekend, and perhaps northward by Sun/Mon https://t.co/nGBS6paoyk pic.twitter.com/HJ8M5JtPsx
— Weather Underground (@wunderground) July 12, 2019
#ClimateFriday – ICYMI: Great illustration of the #NOLA 'bowl'. We really need a #priceonpollution to back us down on #emissions, and do what we can to slow the effects of the #climateemergency. For #NewOrleans and everyone else. Check out @citizensclimate for our focus on #HR763 https://t.co/T6A2lSuejo
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) July 12, 2019
#Barry appears to be getting better organized with center of circulation moving closer to large area of convection to the south. The major limiter for Barry has been sheer — which tends to be more prevalent during El Niño years. S. coast of Louisiana now feeling some impacts. pic.twitter.com/GOpE59icKW
— Robert Fanney (@robertscribbler) July 12, 2019
There is a high risk of flash flooding over southern Louisiana this weekend as #Barry makes landfall, with a significant threat stretching northward into Mississippi. Remember-Turn Around Don't Drown! For more on Barry, see https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb or https://t.co/SiZo8ozBbn pic.twitter.com/0vB1Jbm4Jl
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 12, 2019
Relevant to #Barry & flood threat to New Orleans is this @Guardian piece I wrote last year about #Florence. Same climate change-fueled factors coming together: stuck jet stream (behind already-high Mississippi water levels) + bathtub-warm ocean temps: https://t.co/hrDkkawlgZ
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) July 11, 2019
125p Thu – Starting to get breezy across the area from #Barry. These are some current gusts (in mph). #lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/PhlleBAbsd
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) July 12, 2019
The road to Grand Isle, LA is about to be cutoff #lawx #barry @MyRadarWX pic.twitter.com/bcYkWaPEno
— Aaron Jayjack (@aaronjayjack) July 12, 2019
Here is the latest 4PM CDT update from the NHC on Tropical Storm #Barry
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) July 12, 2019
Barry continues with the same strength, with max sustained winds of 65 mph. Landfall still expected by early tomorrow.
Stay tuned for frequent updates. #lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/oZ9PIkwiqe
Here are the 10am CDT Key Messages on Tropical Storm #Barry. Latest information is available at https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/l9yMfao6eD
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 12, 2019
🌊 Here are more specific details in regards to the upgraded STORM SURGE WARNING along the SE LA coastline, east through Biloxi, MS. This DOES include Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borgne. #lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/WoU3FRIo2s
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) July 12, 2019
Significant flood threat associated w/ #Barry
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) July 12, 2019
📏10-20" of rain with significantly higher local amounts possible
⏰Heaviest rain expected tonight through Saturday night
🌧️Heavy rain could lead to widespread/life-threatening flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding pic.twitter.com/xMAaVHjKmN
As hazardous conditions arrive along the Gulf Coast today with #Barry, get information on local weather and impacts from @NWSNewOrleans @NWSLakeCharles @NWSMobile @NWSJacksonMS pic.twitter.com/XRl4EiBHoN
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 12, 2019
The west shore of Lake Pontchartrain bearing the brunt of the southeast winds associated with TS Barry. The water is coming up along this stretch of St. John Parish. @WWLTV pic.twitter.com/CDb8pUgYnE
— Paul Murphy (@PMurphyWWL) July 12, 2019
Pevine Road at Frenier’s Landing in St. John Parish is starting to flood. Neighbors are evacuating. Water over the boat ramp at the landing on Lake Pontchartrain. Neighbor told us water started coming up this morning. pic.twitter.com/Oj7rZ9WItV
— Paul Murphy (@PMurphyWWL) July 12, 2019
Dropsonde measured 996 mb in center with 15 kt sfc wind, so pressure down into the 994-995 mb level. Surface chart shows gradient is strengthening with increasing winds (note: some of these winds are at significant elevation above the Gulf). pic.twitter.com/LBJ9RSuk4C
— Alan Gerard (@Wxmanms1) July 12, 2019
Last @53rdWRS hurricane hunter pass through the disorganized center of #Barry shows steepening pressure/wind profile combined with warming/drying…more indications #Barry is organizing/intensifying. Image from @TropicalTidbits pic.twitter.com/POJLmghpU6
— Matthew Sitkowski (@MattSitkowski) July 12, 2019
Zooming out on Louisiana and Mississippi shows the considerable scale of the heavy rainfall from Barry.
— Ryan (@RyanMaue) July 12, 2019
72-hours totals from NWS offices: pic.twitter.com/Y8ZnWBpiAw
Much of the media focus on whether the storm is a “hurricane” or not. The term only relates to wind strength – many of the deadliest and costliest storms are down to flooding. #Barry could be one of those such storms for folk in Louisiana! https://t.co/B8POA3Tlfh
— Matt Taylor (@MetMattTaylor) July 12, 2019
Louisiana DOTD has CLOSED Highway 300 FloodGate (Bayou Road) in Reggio, #Louisiana due to Tropical Storm #Barry. #LAwx pic.twitter.com/tv1wzU3fhb
— James Sinko (@JamesSinko) July 12, 2019
Here's what we know about Tropical Storm Barry and what to expect – CNN https://t.co/LosaBQdi17
— Disaster Services (@svdpusadisaster) July 12, 2019
Latest run from our 15km MPAS shows over 13 inches of rain in #NOLA from Tropical Storm #Barry. Barry is likely going to cause some severe flooding and folks in #NOLA should begin to research evacuation routes. It's best to communicate with other family members before leaving. pic.twitter.com/qcG4yLq0cT
— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) July 12, 2019
Hurricane warnings are now up ahead of #Barry, but what's most concerning is the potential for 20-25" of rain and widespread/severe flooding. https://t.co/E1SJ4joACQ pic.twitter.com/5AgcfhWyfM
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) July 11, 2019
"You’ll probably run to grab some towels. Don’t bother. And if you do, set a time limit for yourself – five minutes, maximum. If the water doesn’t start going down, it’s not going to. Worry about cleanup later. Safety and survival first."https://t.co/LcdMTgDmER
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) July 12, 2019
Update from @usatodayweather
— Ryan (@RyanMaue) July 12, 2019
with obligatory 14 Trillon gallons of rainfall statistic. https://t.co/KJD9mi2bJj
#ClimateFriday #StormBarry: After floods upstream, and shortage of employee hiring #FEMA not ready for a big hit in #NewOrleans https://t.co/5ywVQybPCi via @nytimes
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) July 13, 2019
Here is more climate and weather news from Friday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article.)
And now onto our second panel for the #NYCEPrix #InnovationSummit 🌍🇺🇸
— Envision Virgin Racing Formula E (@EnvisionVirgin) July 12, 2019
WATCH LIVE 👉 https://t.co/qOB4C51QuW @MichaelEMann @JulesKortenhors @RockyMtnInst @hl_clarkson @ClimateGroup @anthawilliams @bloombergdotorg #MarkChambers @NYCMayorsOffice @HeatherLandy @QuartzAtWork @qz pic.twitter.com/5LSawOLlDP
@MichaelEMann The #climate Connection with this spring's wild weather in the US Heartland https://t.co/1b1zUwzzNa
— Peter Sinclair (@PeterWSinclair) July 12, 2019
"When it comes to the Arctic heat waves, the wildfires, am I surprised? No — this was long predicted. Am I worried? Yes," said @PennState climate scientist @MichaelEMann.https://t.co/z2GQMr3lU1
— InsideClimate News (@insideclimate) July 12, 2019
Humans could generate 3.4 billion tons of solid waste by 2050. Here's how countries can prevent a trash-pocalypse https://t.co/nyvsaUXm7I via @business
— Stephanie Baker (@StephaniBaker) July 12, 2019
The 10 countries most vulnerable to #ClimateChange will experience significant population booms in coming decades
— Prof Peter Strachan (@ProfStrachan) July 11, 2019
"The #WorldBank estimates that #ClimateBreakDown could create more than 140 million new migrants in #Africa, #Asia & #LatinAmerica by 2050"
https://t.co/P9xYdTfNKg
This week's weather history "Something Moore" to 1988. The U.S. was in the grips of a widespread drought/ then the deadly heat was added in. Both factors peaked in July. We covered the event to a great extent on TWC. We even sponsored a "Drought Symposium" https://t.co/5G9hxoUjY2 pic.twitter.com/nPzNL43Z1C
— Tom Moore (@TomMoorewx) July 12, 2019
Wonderful News!
— Prof Peter Strachan (@ProfStrachan) July 12, 2019
Greta @GretaThunberg wins prestigious Scottish award – The Geddes Environmental Medal.
“Think Globally,” declared geographer Patrick Geddes. “Act Locally.” #FridayThoughts#FridaysForFuture@friends_earth@Team4Nature@Animal_Watchhttps://t.co/ruF4BUnGn0
New @YaleClimateComm research: "simply increasing the frequency of climate-related discussions shifted people’s perceptions of the scientific consensus around human-caused warming …" via @latimes https://t.co/9hqUexIhti
— Green News Report (@GreenNewsReport) July 12, 2019
“The Prince of Wales has warned global leaders they have 18 critical months to solve climate change and restore the balance of nature, ensuring the survival of the human race.”
— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) July 12, 2019
https://t.co/fzbqhNj1K9
#ClimateFriday – #WomeninSTEM – #Conservation: From #ClimateScience to #PlasticPollution, these women are making a difference. If you don't know them, here's another look at what they're doing for the future:https://t.co/3LgHJRT3QW
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) July 12, 2019
Tesla Semi prototype spotted on highway, maybe without a driver – Electrek https://t.co/H0gjO5ram6
— Matthew Bonnstetter (@MLBinWA) July 12, 2019
The Current State of Arctic PERMAFROST THAW https://t.co/BHKixBdEv5 @PeterWSinclair
— Climate State (@climatestate) July 13, 2019
Very welcome comments from Michael Mann @MichaelEMann
— Prof Peter Strachan (@ProfStrachan) July 11, 2019
“The more people actually understand about the science of #ClimateChange, the more they are likely to accept the scientific consensus — that it is real, human-caused, & a threat to human civilization”
https://t.co/Eyx9T1CqTl
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Guy Walton- “The Climate Guy”