Tuesday August 25th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Houston We Have A Big Problem…How Bad Will Effects From Laura Get?
Dear Diary. During the day on Monday we started to see more ominous signs that the Houston/Galveston area could see a direct hit from Hurricane Laura. It now appears that the best case scenario would be a near miss with a landfall in southwest Louisiana as a CAT2. The worst case scenario would be for Laura’s eye to move in just west of Galveston Bay as a CAT 5 monster hurricane. A middle road scenario would be what the National Hurricane Center is forecasting, a CAT3 landfall just east of Galveston.
We have a scant 48 hours before landfall with a mere 36 hours before conditions go rapidly downhill in Southeast Texas and coastal Louisiana. So, what scenario will be closest to verification? Certainly weather models are shifting towards the west, but as a forecaster I know that guidance can change. Also, intensity guidance is still very flaky as far as our best science goes in 2020. I pray that Houston will be spared the worst that nature can dole out in 2020 due to a supercharged, hot world from carbon pollution, but we will see.
Today and on Wednesday I will present the latest information from hurricane experts, which will be updated constantly, refreshed with the newest information appearing at the top of this list:
The 00Z WED HWRF is almost a carbon copy of Tuesday's model runs. Looks like a landfall in extreme western Louisiana exactly 24 hours from now at near a CAT 3 status, with near 120 mph sustained winds…exactly what @NHC_Atlantic is currently forecasting. pic.twitter.com/FWDeikHN5X
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) August 26, 2020
Here's how the structure and organization of #Hurricane #Laura changed between the morning recon missions and evening recon missions today. pic.twitter.com/UnjdwHYVxt
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) August 26, 2020
#Laura now has maximum winds up to 90 mph. Rapid strengthening is expected overnight into Wednesday. Our crews are LIVE bringing you the latest. pic.twitter.com/YHcP4aHhqx
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 26, 2020
Hurricane Center now warning of "potentially catastrophic" storm surge inundation from #Laura near the Texas-Louisiana border and to the east, where the surge could penetrate 30 MILES inland.
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) August 26, 2020
This map shows predicted real estate engulfed.
Updates: https://t.co/2lJXcoIjqI pic.twitter.com/o9kfQvf3oV
Laura's quick deepening trend continues… pic.twitter.com/qHl5nCk7DT
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 26, 2020
The last dropsonde splash into #Laura's eye found a minimum central pressure of ~978mb, which is ~ 5 millibars lower than what was reported about 2.5 hrs ago. #Laura is undoubtedly intensifying pic.twitter.com/OtHfKlyDi6
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) August 26, 2020
Only 2x on record (since 1851) have 3+ #hurricanes made continental US landfall by Aug. 27: (1886 – 5 hurricanes) and 1916 (3 hurricanes). #Laura is forecast to make landfall as a major #hurricane late Wed/early Thurs. Hurricanes #Hanna and #Isaias made landfall earlier this year pic.twitter.com/q7DTVlu7Oi
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 26, 2020
11 p.m. Eastern NHC update: strong Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Gusts to 115 mph.
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 26, 2020
Forecast has been upped for a 120 mph sustained landfall.
Pressure falling like a rock pic.twitter.com/mNu0GsFZIj
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) August 26, 2020
There is a lot of action in #Laura's inner core this evening… those thunderstorms are loving the bathtub Gulf water. pic.twitter.com/ZBKCasltU1
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 26, 2020
Lightning is most common in thunderstorms with the greatest vertical motion. This imbalance with vertical motion tends not to last very long once that energy is transformed into intensifying cyclonic winds. Rapid Intensification may be near. https://t.co/WBseSIonPa
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) August 25, 2020
First recon pass of the evening finding 75kt flight level winds in the NW quadrant of #Laura, is quite a jump from this morning. pic.twitter.com/jfcB9vIFwP
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) August 25, 2020
Convective burst in the northern eyewall, rotating quickly around to the NW and W sides. Complete with some lightning too. This is a good indication that the real eye is about to pop soon. pic.twitter.com/m4xoiqHsFc
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) August 25, 2020
Evening recon finds #Laura now has a central pressure of 984mb, continuing its gradual pace of intensification. The plane has yet to sample the strongest winds in the circulation, so we'll know more on future passes. pic.twitter.com/BlprjY7xS9
— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020
From NHC's 4p CT advisory on #Laura.
— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) August 25, 2020
This isn't unreasonable. Rita's surge was up to ~ 25 miles inland.
Goes to show yet again that hurricanes aren't just a coastal thing. pic.twitter.com/efKClvcZiS
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The surge could be as high as 9-13 ft above ground level along the southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas coasts and could penetrate as far inland as 30 miles. pic.twitter.com/UD0VFBzkLY
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 25, 2020
Laura's 6-hour change in appearance on satellite imagery is impressive pic.twitter.com/AE3IZXMSGk
— 😷 Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) August 25, 2020
Wow… look at the blow up of thunderstorms on Laura’s east side! This is a zoomed in view of the forming eye over the last 3 hours. Likely the start of Rapid Intensification. pic.twitter.com/E5OHB0SG7j
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) August 25, 2020
This is the European Model Gust Swath. Keep in mind that the track won't be exact, it may be east or west a bit. Also keep in mind that this is not on the ground, its about 30 feet up. Likely overdone some, but 150 mph gusts+ shows you just how serious the storm will be. #Laura pic.twitter.com/4syhl8y6tJ
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) August 25, 2020
Surge forecast for #Laura increased with peak surge up to 13 FEET above normally dry land if landfall coincides with high tide. Highest surge will occur just east of where storm comes ashore – still coming into focus.
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) August 25, 2020
Updates: https://t.co/ON8hFbc6I3 pic.twitter.com/qbGjUidZD7
Now that #Laura’s eye is forming, there’s just not a lot of doubt that this will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane for eastern Texas and Louisiana. It is sobering to watch… please be smart if you are in the path. pic.twitter.com/97EccI3SXZ
— Eric Blake 🌀 (@EricBlake12) August 25, 2020
Hurricane #Laura is quickly getting its act together this afternoon as the eyewall is about completely wrapped around the center of the storm. Expect rapid intensification to take place as early as tonight. pic.twitter.com/K6rz87sDY8
— Jackson Dill (@Jackson_Dill) August 25, 2020
In the area of concern, the tidal range is two feet, so if #Laura's peak surge arrives with high tide, the inundation will be two feet more than if it arrives at low tide. In western Louisiana, high tide is expected at 1am on Wednesday night… not good. https://t.co/xFYM97Xxka
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 25, 2020
#NerdTweet incoming – The new CB in the SW eyewall of #Laura is producing a fascinating signature of IR warming inward from it. This is sinking air due to "compensating subsidence", and is one way that these CBs warm the eye and intensify a TC. pic.twitter.com/QQtn2JXkdI
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 25, 2020
Model guidance is converging on the coastline between Houston and far SW Louisiana as the most likely landfall point for #Laura on Wed. night (still some uncertainty, though). There will be heavy rain, but storm surge and high wind are bigger concerns.https://t.co/XLI6QRtYiV
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) August 25, 2020
1pm: No advisory changes. Laura is 560 miles SE of Galveston, TX. Laura is moving WNW across the SE Gulf. Forecast to make landfall Wed night/early Thu AM as a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph. @wdsu pic.twitter.com/bjUwLQvIMP
— Kweilyn Murphy (@KweilynWDSU) August 25, 2020
We're at a semi-frustrating point in #Laura's evolution where we're sorta sitting around and waiting for it to really take off.
— Jack Sillin | weather.us (@JackSillin) August 25, 2020
The storm is producing intense thunderstorm activity, but so far that hasn't been able to wrap all the way around the center https://t.co/QdhshT4bQc pic.twitter.com/aeB3bP7Ok5
Drone footage shows the devastating aftermath of Tropical Storm Laura in the Dominican Republic. At least 13 people have been killed, thousands have been forced to evacuate, and more than 1 million people are without power in areas across the Caribbean. pic.twitter.com/G9hrJpOdXq
— NowThis (@nowthisnews) August 25, 2020
[#NerdTweet] (1/2) With recon measurements of #Laura's windfield, we know the current wind max is rather broad. As the inner core completes, it may be rather large at first, as depicted now in HWRF (it assimilates plane data). This has important implications: pic.twitter.com/jSwM4I3To3
— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 25, 2020
More context https://t.co/i7UaXvBcUz
— Climate State (@climatestate) August 25, 2020
Like literally, all of Southeast Texas could see gusts over 100 mph. Any number that is 87 or higher (these maps are in knots, NOT mph) means that 100 mph wind gusts are possible roughly 30 feet above the Earth. 100 mph gusts in all of SETX are possible. pic.twitter.com/TzfZXDCNtX
— Eric Brill (@EBrillWx) August 25, 2020
A product of Hurricane #Laura will also be high-end waves offshore… ECMWF data is suggesting maximum wave heights of 40-50 ft closer to shore and upwards of 70 ft further offshore in the northwest Gulf. pic.twitter.com/v1Mm5nye1d
— John Kassell (@JPKassell) August 25, 2020
In addition to storm surge & wind threats, Hurricane #Laura is expected to produce a swath of heavy rainfall as it moves inland Wednesday night into Saturday. This rainfall will cause widespread flash & urban flooding and isolated moderate river flooding. https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/RoRCMxorJb
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 25, 2020
There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge over a large portion of the Gulf Coast from San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River and a storm surge warning is in effect for this area. Follow advice given by local officials. #Laura https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/GX45MjucHE
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 25, 2020
Laura Expected to Touch Down Wednesday in Texas and Louisiana as a Category 3 Hurricane https://t.co/QeIhEhyQO8
— People (@people) August 25, 2020
Two recon flights are in #Laura currently & confirm its a #hurricane. However, rapid intensification does not appear imminent (yet).
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) August 25, 2020
Earlier 85GHz microwave pass showed structure remains tilted w/ height to S. Until tilt is reduced, slow intensification more likely in short term pic.twitter.com/SQnzf3eMbN
The forecast for #Laura's intensity at landfall is becoming (frighteningly) consistent across models, but there's an absolutely bonkers *inconsistency* in how Laura evolves 2 days after landfall.
— Nick P Bassill (@NickPBassill) August 25, 2020
The EC and UKMET (top 2) insist on a deep storm, while the GFS & CMC dissipate it. pic.twitter.com/OJb9cmDu06
Laura strengthens to Cat. 1 hurricane over Gulf of Mexico, NOAA says; forecast to strengthen to Cat. 3 with 115 mph winds as it nears Texas-Louisiana coast late Wednesday. https://t.co/ZDYpxgnuY9
— NBC News (@NBCNews) August 25, 2020
Maximum and median 24-hour intensity change in August and September.
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) August 25, 2020
Laura is tracking across the climatologically most favored areas for intensification in the Gulf. pic.twitter.com/mqvuHXIIgg
While historical hurricanes provide good lessons of the past, I always resist the urge to use them as a comparison for what a future hurricane might bring. Each hurricane is unique because of things like size, distribution of winds, etc and leaves a unique footprint on the coast. https://t.co/rNVIzciPsG
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) August 25, 2020
At what point is too many ensembles too much? If we were to combine the EPS, GEFSv11, and UKMET (h/t @Weathernerds), we get a multi-model ensemble with 108 members.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 25, 2020
Laura's 8am EDT position is south (i.e., left) of all major deterministic models & the ensemble mean. pic.twitter.com/YB9xkDfQiM
Bavi and Laura pic.twitter.com/vw0Jeoi1xv
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) August 25, 2020
2020 in 1 satellite image. https://t.co/rIc6Xp37Uh
— Andrew Freedman (@afreedma) August 25, 2020
Hurricane Laura is expected to move northwest from Cuba and hit the states of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday. https://t.co/1kU7BQMnNy
— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) August 25, 2020
Every single member in the new 0z European ensemble suite is south of the center of the NHC (@NHC_Atlantic) track forecast cone for #Laura & no members make landfall in Louisiana. Expect official track forecasts for #Laura to shift significantly westward later today.#txwx #lawx pic.twitter.com/dQcoUpNJlm
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) August 25, 2020
Note that the max gust of 152 mph shown in this ECMWF projection would typically correspond to max sustained winds of about 127 mph–i.e., a strong Cat 3 storm (vs. Cat 5). It's concerning nonetheless! Houston needs to take this storm seriously. https://t.co/NxWiXA1ltJ
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) August 25, 2020
I have a suspicion that we're gonna see another SW shift in the models w/ #Laura later today. The last recon center fix placed #Laura's center on the SW edge of today's 12z Euro ensemble. This is likely bad news for folks on the TX coast, esp from Galveston to Port O'Connor #txwx pic.twitter.com/AMBNMzNKVc
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) August 25, 2020
Tomer wasn't kidding. Starting from its humble beginnings as TD13 *five* days ago, watch #Laura journey along the largest Caribbean islands — with seemingly low impacts on its structure — via storm-centered GOES-East infrared imagery: https://t.co/z47CByTz3l pic.twitter.com/IbJuSb6JBX
— 😷 Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) August 25, 2020
This is off of most radars right now, but Typhoon #Bavi could become one of the strongest storms to strike North Korea in the modern record. Given how much monsoon rain has fallen in the Korean Peninsula in recent weeks, this is worth watching from a humanitarian perspective. pic.twitter.com/AUYnzZo67y
— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) August 25, 2020
Here are more notes from Tuesday on the western fires and the heatwave, which I’ve dubbed Beelzebub:
Long awaited GOOD NEWS! The #heatwave will let up soon; on Friday temperatures will start to cool down, reaching near normal temps just in time for the weekend! 😎📉 #cawx pic.twitter.com/ce6O83y0ug
— NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) August 25, 2020
"Why California’s wildfires keep getting worse" by @NicoleKarlis for @Salon: https://t.co/QK8AErqYOf
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) August 25, 2020
📻 ON AIR:
— KQED Forum (@KQEDForum) August 25, 2020
🔥 Is #climatechange contributing to the risk of #wildfires in California?
We're talking with @Weather_West about the role of climate change in worsening California's fire conditions.https://t.co/cXAKjoLHm5
Some good news. Our western #heatwave #Beelzebub will ratchet down from CAT3 to CAT2 status since a deeper marine layer will penetrate California, and high heat will fall below record levels most locations in the Southwest. Marginally dangerous heat will prevail in the Plains. pic.twitter.com/mycoLeJQlR
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) August 25, 2020
Think these #California #wildfires are bad? Fmr. @CAL_FIRE Chief Ken Pimlott tells me we need to prep for fires TEN TIMES worse in the years ahead.
— Brandon Rittiman (@BrandonRittiman) August 25, 2020
WATCH the @ABC10 interview here:https://t.co/89rsyApPm4
Much helpful context in this conversation between @Weather_West and @eroston about the wildfires in CAhttps://t.co/zU6hagRbP0
— Jordyn Bonds (@skybondsor) August 25, 2020
#Heatwave #Beelzebub will drone on across the West and much of the Plains, maintaining CAT3 status. For more on my rudimentary categorizations for heat waves read: https://t.co/RlMMPGn5xo pic.twitter.com/9Enc4PwJfz
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) August 25, 2020
Here is more climate and weather news from Tuesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Strong winds and heavy rain from Storm Francis have flooded homes and blocked rail lines in the UK and Ireland https://t.co/18Qes9EYl8
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) August 25, 2020
"Scientists say there is no doubt that climate change is driving the extreme weather, increasing the threats to property and life." https://t.co/7M16jXU5Su
— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) August 25, 2020
Amid droughts, searing heat and wildfires, California has become the 'exemplar for climate change extreme events'
— Friends of the Earth (@foe_us) August 25, 2020
This is the climate crisis.https://t.co/2mgmQEHBy0
Parachutist makes world's first jump from solar-powered plane https://t.co/0O0KOT0DAH pic.twitter.com/y1DZ3oHo7m
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 25, 2020
A useful guide from @ClimSciDefense
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) August 25, 2020
“Participating in Political Activities: Guidelines for Federally Employed and Federally Funded Scientists” https://t.co/cIvtBfLoQW
The super rapid Chukchi Sea ice decline this summer really began with the late July #Arctic cyclone which really thinned and melted the ice rapidly in that region. https://t.co/A6x0G7JECG
— Randall Gates (@rgatess) August 25, 2020
This is what one street looks like in Florida as extreme weather sweeps across the state bringing flooding.
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) August 25, 2020
Latest US news: https://t.co/GWVgBGkXky pic.twitter.com/vUNbsR93IA
#Youth4Climate
— #ActOnClimate (@1o5Climate) August 24, 2020
“It is our duty to carry out actions that reverse the climate crisis, preserve the different forms of life on the planet and prevent the destruction of habitats.” via @unicefchief – https://t.co/PADR1N9whW #ClimateJustice #IntergenerationalJustice pic.twitter.com/WtVufoaxDj
.@DukeEnergy dumped toxic coal ash in unlined pits for years contaminating the ground water. In a historic settlement, they were ordered to cleanup their mess. Now, they want a rate hike to pay for the excavation or loose credit rating?
— The Voda Foundation (@Voda_Foundation) August 25, 2020
Time for an #energytransition. #ByeDuke pic.twitter.com/5iqqHcAzm7
For your next boat trip Watch the world’s first electric hydrofoil boat in action https://t.co/n48XOOm0sM
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) August 25, 2020
Texas’s first zero-energy capable housing community, Whisper Valley, is in the first phase of its plan to build over 7,000 new, eco-friendly homes in the East Austin, Texas area. @SolarLonghorn https://t.co/jF1SxYaA17
— Solar Builder (@Solar_Builder) August 25, 2020
EGEB: This Chinese coal company is going big on solar https://t.co/fDwtfxRTNv via @electrekco
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) August 25, 2020
Check out: Tesla's Musk says electric car batteries are 3-4 years from major leap | Autoblog https://t.co/Dn1PQp5VS9 via @therealautoblog #batteries #battery #EUGreenDeal #ElectricCar #ElectricCars #ElectricVehicles #EVs #Tesla #cars #autos #VW #Daimler #BMW #PSA #Renault
— Alex von Witzleben (@AlexWitzleben) August 25, 2020
Activists have been fighting against the dangerous Pebble Mine project for decades. We hope this is the beginning of the end for it.https://t.co/We95adaA0e
— WWF-US Action Team (@wwf_act) August 25, 2020
Australia's chief scientist rejects experts' letter warning him not to back gas https://t.co/6PGacVlGQ1
— Guardian Environment (@guardianeco) August 25, 2020
#Youth4Climate
— #ActOnClimate (@1o5Climate) August 24, 2020
“It is our duty to carry out actions that reverse the climate crisis, preserve the different forms of life on the planet and prevent the destruction of habitats.” via @unicefchief – https://t.co/PADR1N9whW #ClimateJustice #IntergenerationalJustice pic.twitter.com/WtVufoaxDj
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
https://t.co/LcLhJ9bnOj @CNN @politico @nytimes @MariaTeresa1 @USATODAY @AP @WSJ @MSNBC @Salon @TwitterNews @NickRiccardi @Newsweek @Reuters
— monty montgomery (@3montMonty) August 25, 2020
Picking produce at 100 degrees Fahrenheit is brutal, but the workers who do the job — a job made tougher by global warming – have little choice. "We need to work, and if we stay indoors we don’t get paid." https://t.co/jsCU6nHYAz
— NYT Climate (@nytclimate) August 25, 2020
Coronavirus re-infections raise concerns about immunity https://t.co/x2EnEZRcki pic.twitter.com/9cgrcqGvZB
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 25, 2020
Pelosi says Trump, GOP 'just don't simply seem to care' on coronavirus relief https://t.co/vGPNfQn6Hf
— Jeffrey Levin (@jilevin) August 24, 2020
We might avoid the next pandemic and save trillions of dollars by spending just a fraction of that amount to curb deforestation and the wildlife trade. Instead Trump Bolso plan even more deforestation https://t.co/5ofoR1pkCM
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) August 25, 2020
How England follows Scotland's lead over Covid-19 https://t.co/Yx2EeyWsFG
— The Guardian (@guardian) August 25, 2020
Today, in our daily #coronavirus briefing: The nation's top infectious disease doctor urged caution about the risks of rushing the vaccine along. Meanwhile, KFC dropped the iconic slogan it's used for the last 64 years amid the health crisis. https://t.co/uCNIQ8uSbq
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) August 25, 2020
Here's how Morgan Stanley’s Scott Wilson kept his wealthy clients from panic selling during the Covid-19 sell-off: https://t.co/RhLgfQR1wB pic.twitter.com/IMjG6jxGf0
— Forbes (@Forbes) August 25, 2020
Covid-19: Boris Johnson admits school face mask advice might change https://t.co/9xiuS9YNJ0
— Guardian news (@guardiannews) August 25, 2020
COVID-19 is hitting tipped workers hard https://t.co/6GovnV2v0o
— WHNT News 19 (@whnt) August 25, 2020
Given the magnitude of #water challenges, and the encompassing discussion about how to deal with these issues, the border wall seems little more than a distraction in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. https://t.co/wHj3mzBLVc #WaterTexas
— Circle of Blue (@circleofblue) August 25, 2020
(If you like these posts and my work please contribute via the PayPal widget, which has recently been added to this site. Thanks in advance for any support.)
Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”