Extreme Temperature Diary- Tuesday February 22nd, 2022/Main Topic: New Findings on the Onset of Modern Sea Level Rise

The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: New Findings on the Onset of Modern Sea Level Rise

Dear Diary. By now everyone associated or interested in the climate issue knows that sea level is slowly rising. Even climate change skeptics can’t deny that our seas are encroaching on shores due to higher king tides in Miami and other coastal areas or from satellite data and measurements. But at what point did our sea level begin to rise due to carbon pollution?

Apparently, it didn’t take too long after the advent of the Industrial Revolution for seas to creep higher. Here is a report from Desdemona Despair with details on new research into the history of modern day sea level rise.

Onset of modern sea level rise began in 1863, international study finds – “We can be virtually certain the global rate of sea-level rise from 1940 to 2000 was faster than all previous 60-year intervals over the last 2,000 years”

(a) Sixty-year average sea-level rise (SLR) rates over the Common Era, where pre-industrial is 0–1700 CE. (b) Sixty-year average SLR rates from 1700 to 2000 CE which increase concurrently with the probability that each 60-year interval and all subsequent 60-year intervals were greater than a random 60-year interval during the pre-industrial Common Era. The time of emergence year is given for 0.66, 0.90, and 0.95 probabilities. Model predictions are the mean with 1σ uncertainty. Graphic: Walker, et al., 2022 / Nature Communications

(a) Sixty-year average sea-level rise (SLR) rates over the Common Era, where pre-industrial is 0–1700 CE. (b) Sixty-year average SLR rates from 1700 to 2000 CE which increase concurrently with the probability that each 60-year interval and all subsequent 60-year intervals were greater than a random 60-year interval during the pre-industrial Common Era. The time of emergence year is given for 0.66, 0.90, and 0.95 probabilities. Model predictions are the mean with 1σ uncertainty. Graphic: Walker, et al., 2022 / Nature Communications

18 February 2022 (Rutgers University) – An international team of scientists including Rutgers researchers has found that modern rates of sea level rise began emerging in 1863 as the Industrial Age intensified, coinciding with evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt.

The study, which used a global database of sea-level records spanning the last 2,000 years, will help local and regional planners prepare for future sea-level rise. The study appears in the journal Nature Communications.

Sea-level rise is an important indicator of broader climate changes. By identifying the time when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above natural variability, the researchers were able to pinpoint the onset of a significant period of climate change.

By examining the worldwide records, the researchers found that globally, the onset of modern rates of sea-level rise occurred in 1863, in line with the Industrial Revolution. At individual sites in the United States, modern rates emerged earliest in the mid-Atlantic region in the mid to late 19th century, and later in Canada and Europe, emerging by the mid-20th century.

The study is especially timely given NOAA’s recently-released report detailing the rapid acceleration of sea-level rise on U.S. coasts.

“We can be virtually certain the global rate of sea-level rise from 1940 to 2000 was faster than all previous 60-year intervals over the last 2,000 years,” said Jennifer S. Walker, lead author of the study and postdoctoral associate in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Having a thorough understanding of site-specific sea-level changes over long timescales is imperative for regional and local planning and response to future sea level rise.”

Walker noted that the statistical model the research team utilized could also be applied to more individual sites to further understand the processes driving sea-level change on global and regional scales.

“The fact that modern rates emerge at all of our study sites by the mid-20th century demonstrates the significant influence global sea-level rise has had on our planet in the last century,” Walker added. “Further analysis of the spatial variability in the time of emergence at different locations will continue to improve society’s understanding of how regional and local processes impact rates of sea-level rise.”

Onset Of Modern Sea Level Rise Began In 1863, International Study Finds

(a) Total, (b) global, (c) linear, and (d) regional and local nonlinear sea-level rise (SLR) rates for three sites (New Jersey, Cheesequake; Florida, Nassau; Scotland, Kyle of Tongue) are shown with the time of emergence for each site. Model predictions are the mean with 1σ uncertainty. Note variable y-axes. Graphic: Walker, et al., 2022 / Nature Communications
(a) Total, (b) global, (c) linear, and (d) regional and local nonlinear sea-level rise (SLR) rates for three sites (New Jersey, Cheesequake; Florida, Nassau; Scotland, Kyle of Tongue) are shown with the time of emergence for each site. Model predictions are the mean with 1σ uncertainty. Note variable y-axes. Graphic: Walker, et al., 2022 / Nature Communications

Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863

ABSTRACT: Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0–2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE (P = 0.9; range of 1825 [P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872–1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930–1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era.

Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863Canada / climate change / Florida / global warming / New York / North America / North Carolina / sea level rise#Canada#climate change#DoomiestGraph#Florida#global warming#Graph of the Day#North America#sea level

Related:

Here are some “ET” and extreme precipitation reports from Tuesday:

Here is more climate and weather news from Tuesday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:

(If you like these posts and my work please contribute via the PayPal widget, which has recently been added to this site. Thanks in advance for any support.) 

Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.