The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed directly below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Australia Begins a Climate Crisis Retreat
Dear Diary. As a species we have a visceral disdain for retreat. In war, usual this means that your side is losing…just ask Putin these days. Unfortunately, instead of giving up once retreat in war commences, usually the losing side doubles down, becoming entrenched. This is why Germany didn’t give up until the bitter end in 1945 instead of surrendering in early 1943 when it became apparent that they would eventually lose the war once retreat commenced in North Africa and in Russia, the delay costing tens of millions of lives. I have a very bad feeling about what Putin will do given the history of fascist autocrats when the get cornered, not wanting to admit defeat.
We as a species love to colonize and conquer every piece of livable land on the planet, never retreating long if there is adversity. Now the biggest batch of adversity that we have ever confronted is climate change induced by our burning of fossil fuels. The Netherlands has been fighting the seas for centuries, actually claiming land via ingenious advances involving dikes. Now they face inevitable retreat along with all coastal developed areas due to sea level rise. I can only imagine the fight to keep from retreating that will take place later this century along the world’s coasts.
Australia was colonized by the English starting in the 18th century, in which wilderness was conquered. So far, this may be the largest piece of real estate in which necessary retreat has been contemplated due to climate change, since flooding has recently transformed large areas back to wilderness.
Checkout the gory details here in a recent Conversation article:
After the floods, the distressing but necessary case for managed retreat
Published: March 13, 2022
- Antonia Settle -Academic (McKenzie Postdoctoral Research Fellow), The University of Melbourne
From Brisbane to Sydney, many thousands of Australians have been reliving a devastating experience they hoped – in 2021, 2020, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2012 or 2010/11 – would never happen to them again.
For some suburbs built on the flood plains of the Nepean River in western Sydney, for example, these floods are their third in two years.
Flooding is a part of life in parts of Australia. But as climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of floods, fires and other disasters, and recovery costs soar, two big questions arise.
As a society, should we be setting up individuals and families for ruin by allowing them to build back in areas where they can’t afford insurance? And is it fair for taxpayers to carry the huge burden of paying for future rescue and relief costs?
Considering ‘managed retreat’
Doing something about escalating disaster risks require multiple responses. One is making insurance as cheap as possible. Another is investing in mitigation infrastructure, such as flood levees. Yet another is about making buildings more disaster-resistant.
The most controversial response is the policy of “managed retreat” – abandoning buildings in high-risk areas.
In Australia this policy has been mostly discussed as something to consider some time in the future, and mostly for coastal communities, for homes that can’t be saved from rising sea levels and storm surges.
It’s a sensitive subject because it uproots families, potentially hollows outs communities and also affects house prices – an unsettling prospect when economic security is tied to home ownership.
But managed retreat may also be better than the chaotic consequences of letting the market alone try to work out the risks to individuals and communities.
Grand Forks: a case study
The strategy is already being implemented in parts of western Europe and North America. An example from Canada is the town of Grand Forks, a community of about 4,000 people 300 kilometres east of Vancouver.
The town is located where two rivers meet. In May 2018 it experienced its worst flooding in seven decades, after days of extreme rain attributed to higher than normal winter snowfall melting quickly in hotter spring temperatures. Deforestation has been blamed for exacerbating the flood.
The flood damaged about 500 buildings in Grand Forks, with lowest-income neighbourhoods in low-lying areas the worst-affected.
In the aftermath the local council received C$53 million from the federal and provincial governments for flood mitigation. This included work to reinforce river banks and build dikes. About a quarter of the money was allocated to acquire about 80 homes in the most flood-prone areas.
The decision to demolish these homes – about 5% of the town’s housing – and return the area to flood plain has been contentious.
Some residents simply didn’t want to sell. Adding to the pain was owners being paid the post-flood market value of their homes (saving the council about C$6 million). There were also long delays, with residents stuck in limbo for more than year while authorities finalised transactions.
A sensitive subject
Grand Forks shares similarities to Lismore, the epicentre of the disaster affecting northern NSW and southern Queensland.
Lismore is also built on a flood plain where two rivers meet. Floods are a regular occurrence, with the last major disaster being in 2017. Insuring properties in town’s most flood-prone areas was already unaffordable for some. In the future it may be impossible.
Last week NSW premier Dominic Perrottet said about 2,000 of the town’s 19,000 homes would need to be demolished and rebuilt, a statement the local council general manager downplayed, saying in the majority of cases “people will not have to worry”.
For a community traumatised by loss, overwhelmed by the recovery effort and angry at the perceived tardiness of government relief efforts, discussing any form of managed retreat is naturally emotionally charged.
But there’s never an ideal time to talk about bulldozing homes and relocating households.
Managed retreat has far-reaching financial ramifications. As in Grand Forks, the first questions are what homes are targeted, who pays, and how much.
Some residents may be grateful to sell up and move to safe ground. Others may not, disputing the valuation offered or being reluctant to leave at any price.
Managed retreat policies also affect many more than just those whose homes are being acquired. Demolishing a block or suburb can push down values in neighbouring areas, due to fears these homes may be next. Those households are also customers for local businesses. Their loss can potentially send a town economy into decline.
No wonder many people want no mention of managed retreat in their communities.
Antique furniture business owner Adam Bailey outside his store in Lismore’s central business district on March 3 2022. Jason O’Brien/AAP
Pricing in climate change
Markets, however, are already starting to “price in” rising climate risks.
Insurance premiums are going up. The value of homes in high-risk areas will drop as buyers look elsewhere, particularly in the wake of increasingly frequent disasters.
The economic fallout, both for individual households and local communities, could be disastrous.
The Reserve Bank of Australia warned in September 2021 that climate-related disasters could rapidly drive house prices down, particularly in areas that have previously experienced rapid house price growth.
These disasters are also amplifying inequality, with poorer households more likely to live in high-risk locations and also to be uninsured.
In Lismore, for example, more than 80% of households flooded in 2017 were in the lowest 20% of incomes. These trends will intensify as growing climate risks translate into higher insurance premiums and lower house prices.
A deliberate strategy of managed retreat, though distressing and difficult, can help to minimise the upheaval in housing markets as climate risks become increasingly apparent.
We can do better than leaving the most socially and economically vulnerable households to live in high-risk areas, while those with enough money can move away to better, safer futures. Managed retreat can play a key role.
- Climate change risk
- Disaster risk
- Flood risk
- Disaster insurance
- managed retreat
- Eastern Australia floods 2022
Editor and General Manager
Here are some “ET” and precipitation notes recorded over the last couple of days:
Here is more climate and weather news from Monday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid war on Ukraine:
(If you like these posts and my work please contribute via the PayPal widget, which has recently been added to this site. Thanks in advance for any support.)
Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”