The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: First Widespread U.S. Heatwave Likely to Start This Weekend
Dear Diary. It was only a couple of days ago that I laid down my criteria for U.S. heatwaves during 2022. That was good timing. Traditionally, portions of the U.S. didn’t have to contend with any deadly heat until June, or closer to the summer solstice, but unfortunately climate change has expanded summer’s real of high heat. Apparently, the year 2022 will see this effect.
So, what am I seeing that would lead me to believe that a widespread heat episode is imminent? First, meteorological models have become consistent over the last couple of days, forecasting that maximum temperatures will exceed 95°F covering the south-central states starting Mother’s Day weekend:
Here is the associated 500 millibar heat dome chart valid for this coming Saturday:
The building ridge looks like it will be in a cradle by this point, not looking that significant from the Southwest into Texas. By the middle of next week, though, 500 millibar heights get shockingly high by mid-May standards:
We typically don’t see a widespread area of 588+ decameter heights across the continental U.S. until mid-June, and even by then this ridge would be above average. Here are associated maxes for a week from today:
Dangerous, near record warmth will be spreading northward into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley area. This chart may be conservative with temperatures since traditional climatology is built into models that crank out these numbers.
Nearly every U.S. heatwave I have witnessed either starts in the Southwest or southcentral U.S. area then grows and spreads northward. That of June 2021 was quite unusual, bubbling up in the Pacific Northwest. We will see what transpires this year.
Will this coming heatwave reach my major CAT 3 criteria, getting a dragon name? It’s way too early to tell, but we shall certainly see in the next few days.
Here are “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days and extreme temperature outlooks:
Here is more April 2022 climatology:
Here is more climate and weather news from Tuesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid war on Ukraine:
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”