The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Western Heatwave Chevron Forecast to Become a Life-Threatening Major System
Dear Diary. This morning when I checked the following National Weather Service warnings chart, I noticed that advisories in association with historic Heatwave British Petroleum were down to a scant few across South Florida, so officially I am ending the thing by declaring it dead today. For those not following me or are new to this blog, this year I am naming all heatwaves for oil companies, which are partially to blame for these heat systems getting worse with time as the 21st century rolls along.
The end of Heatwave British Petroleum was great news for today. Don’t forget that this system grew to my historic CAT4 level of heat during June 2023 in Mexico then spread into Texas and most of the south-central states. The thing should be responsible for killing hundreds of people once statistics are finalized. Lower levels of heat were eventually felt across the Southeast and eastern U.S. from Heatwave British Petroleum.
Now for the bad news. Notice on the above chart that we see excessive heat warnings for portions of Arizona, including the Phoenix area, some red flag warnings for wildfire potential in the four corners area, and heat advisories in association with borderline CAT1/2 Heatwave Chevron. This system was also much stronger and hotter a few days ago. It’s destined for a big comeback, unfortunately.
The heat dome in association with Heatwave Chevron is weak but still intact as of this morning:
Chevron’s heat dome at best is about 592 decameters centered over El Paso, Texas. That’s weak by normal July standards. By early next week the heat dome will become strong again, getting up to about 597 decameters, being centered near the Arizona/New Mexico/Mexico border:
By this point Pheonix should have maxes approaching 120°F. Models continue to build Heatwave Chevron into mid-July. The heat dome in association with the system could be a whopper, getting close to if not exceeding 600 decameters by next Friday:
By this point extreme heat will be spreading out into Texas and the central and southern Plains with heat advisories getting posted in some sections of the Southeast. Death Valley and other locations across the Desert Southwest could be close to if not exceeding all-time records. 130°F at Death Valley for an all-time record? We will see.
The biggest reason why I am confident about this forecast is model ensemble agreement:
All individual model runs as noted by each line on the above Penn State chart have a heat done well in excess of 594 decameters centered over the southwestern U.S.
It’s uncertain how far east and north dangerous heat will spread outside of the Southwest and south-central states from Heatwave Chevron. My rule of thumb for model reliability is to not trust guidance further out in time than about 168-240 hours out from hour zero. I do think that Heatwave Chevron will get up to my historic CAT4 level and could be responsible for killing hundreds of people from California eastward through the southern Plains and Texas. Of course, I’ll let all of you reading the Extreme Temperature Dairy know how bad this system gets across the United States.
Here are other notes on what is forecast in association with Heatwave Chevron:
Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports: temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is some new June 2023 climatology:
Here is more climate and weather news from Friday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)