Extreme Temperature Diary- Wednesday January 10th, 2024/Main Topic: Historic CAT4 Cold Wave Gerry to Put U.S. In The Deep Freeze

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The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Historic CAT4 Cold Wave Jerry to Put U.S. In The Deep Freeze

Dear Diary. Given the law of averages and the fact that our basic climate isn’t broken beyond repair yet, the United States is having a big bought of winter weather this month after having a record warm December. However, this January’s winter weather is anything but typical. One winter storm this week dubbed by the Weather Channel as Finn has produced tornadoes over the Southeast, flooding rain from the Southeast into the Northeast and high winds toppling trees over the Northeast causing thousands to have power outages. It can be argued that extra heat put into the atmosphere from climate change caused Finn to become as strong as it was.

Now Gerry will be about as strong as Finn, if not stronger late this week and move across the same general area. Behind Gerry will come a severe Arctic outbreak not seen in years for some areas of the United States due to its intensity.

Dr. Michael Mann and Dr. Jennifer Francis have posited that such an arctic outbreak is made more likely due to the weakening of the polar vortex because of warm air intrusions into polar areas at the jet stream level of the atmosphere. That science isn’t proven yet but given what I have witnessed as a meteorologist for decades, I would agree. Regardless, these arctic outbreaks are becoming rarer as our global warming trend continues.

Here is the link for my rules for naming cold waves:

Extreme Temperature Diary- Saturday November 25th, 2020/ Main Topic: American Cold Wave Naming Rules for This Winter – Guy On Climate

Looking at the severity of Gerry, it is likely that the system will be a historic CAT4 and has the potential to be a real killer because some all-time record lows will be threatened in a few western and northern U.S. locations. It has been a while since I’ve seen thickness values below 498 decameters on surface charts, but that is indeed what is forecast late this week across the Upper Midwest:

A near 1050 millibar Arctic surface high pressure cell will be driving record cold air south and east starting this weekend.

Aloft here is the forecast cold vortex in association with Cold Wave Jerry:

On the above Pivotal Weather chart one can see a Hudson Bay low slinging another chunk or lobe of the polar vortex southward, which is a typical setup for an Arctic outbreak that I have seen for many a moon. What is not typical is extreme polar warmth as noted by red and white anomaly colors on the chart. This warmth is forcing residual cold pockets southward over mid latitude areas.

Cold Wave Gerry will have a lot of fresh snow cover to move over from its storm component. Don’t forget that snow aids radiation of heat into space via its high albedo:

Today one can see below zero temperatures in association with Jerry building across western Canada. Outside of the most northern tier of states, the United States is having a relatively mild day ahead of an Arctic front marking the dividing line between cold and downright frigid conditions:

And here we find how cold it will be by Monday the 15th across the CONUS on the latest model run:

Here are more details on Winter Storm Gerry and CAT4 Cold Wave Gerry from the Washington Post (Note- The Washington Post does not name these systems. I contend that the public would be better served if all “majorly defined” weather systems get names.):

Week’s third storm to charge across U.S. with another blizzard, tornadoes

The third storm in just six days may be the most intense amid an exceptionally active weather pattern

By Matthew Cappucci

January 10, 2024 at 12:07 p.m. EST

A simulation of the next storm system pummeling the Great Lakes with snow. (WeatherBell)

Back-to-back storms have already pummeled the Lower 48 states, bringing heavy snow, deadly tornadoes, flooding rains and power outages. More than a half-million customers in the eastern United States remained in the dark to start Wednesday after Monday and Tuesday’s high-impact storm.

Unfortunately, a third storm system is already beginning its march across North America, unleashing blizzard conditions in the Pacific Northwest. By Thursday, it’s poised to dive into the Plains and spread snowfall. That’s before it unleashes severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the South and blizzard conditions in parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday. A quick burst of heavy rain will also sweep across flood-prone areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast late Friday into Saturday.

Like the storm that barreled across the central and eastern United States on Monday and Tuesday, this next cyclone will generate an enormous area of high winds that could trigger tens of thousands of power outages in multiple states. In fact, computer models project its pressure will drop faster than the early-week storm and that it will meet the criteria of a “bomb cyclone” because of its rapid intensification. Generally, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.

How the storm will evolve

After ejecting from the Rocky Mountains on Thursday, the storm system will begin to intensify over the Plains. Severe thunderstorms will erupt on its warm side, first over Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana on Thursday before spreading into Alabama and the southeast on Friday. Both days could feature a tornado risk, with strong tornadoes not out of the question Friday.

On the system’s cold side, another swath of heavy snow falls in the Midwest from Thursday night to Friday night. The jury is still out on how much snow falls where, but St. Louis, Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit could see appreciable amounts. Where jackpot totals occur, a foot or more is possible. Fierce winds accompanying the snow could bring near-whiteout conditions for some.

On the storm’s back side, the coldest air of the winter will plunge into the western and central states this weekend, and heavy lake-effect snows could occur downwind of the Great Lakes, including near Cleveland and Buffalo.

Another winter storm could threaten the East Coast by the start of next week.

Pacific Northwest snow and wind

Blizzard warnings were in effect in the Cascades until Wednesday evening, with winter storm warnings covering most of the remainder of Idaho and Oregon and even dipping into the northern Sierras in California. Snow levels in northern areas were reaching down to 2,000 feet, combining with strong winds topping 40 mph to reduce visibilities below a quarter-mile. Wind gusts could approach 75 mph in some of the highest mountain peaks. The high terrain of Northern California and the Great Basin of Nevada are in line for wintry weather, too.

Here are some of the peak totals through Tuesday night:

  • Steven’s Pass, Wash: 30 inches
  • Paradise, Wash: 19 inches
  • Roslyn, Wash: 18 inches
  • Snoqualmie Pass, Wash: 18 inches
  • Dover, Idaho: 13 inches
  • Mount Baker, Wash: 13 inches
  • Elmira, Idaho: 12 inches

Up to about 10 inches of snow also fell over Washington’s Olympic Range closer to the coast, where a blizzard warning is in effect, as well. Another 3 to 6 inches is possible throughout the daylight hours Wednesday before the storm system withdraws to the southeast.

High winds have buffeted much of the region. In Kennewick, Wash., near the Oregon border, gusts up to 77 mph were recorded. In Seattle, winds gusted 40 to 50 mph, but gusts approached 70 mph at the coastline along the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

Potential blizzard for the Midwest and Great Lakes

A computer model blend simulates how much snow could come down with the next storm. (WeatherBell)

It’s too early to know how much snow will fall as the same storm system spawns a new region of low pressure over the Plains, but it’s looking like a lot. Weather models are consistent in dropping a foot or more across the nation’s heartland, but they differ on the exact placement of the top totals.

Snow looks to break out over Kansas, Nebraska and/or portions of the Corn Belt on Thursday afternoon or evening. Then it increases in coverage and intensity while shifting northeast, reaching Chicago and perhaps Detroit on Friday. North of the rain-snow line, significantly more than a foot of snow isn’t impossible.

“Several inches of accumulating snow in combination with strong winds may result in difficult travel across the area into Saturday,” the National Weather Service in Chicago wrote, “although considerable uncertainty remains regarding the storm track and rain/snow line location.”

It’s possible that mild air off Lake Michigan cuts down on snow totals in Chicago, but much greater amounts fall just to its north and west.

Even after the storm passes, frigid air spilling southward over the Great Lakes will bring heavy lake-effect snow on downwind shores over the weekend.

“The pattern supports the possibility of significant snow amounts through the later half of the weekend for area east of the lakes,” wrote the Weather Service office serving Buffalo. “Additionally, windy conditions will persist throughout the weekend and support areas of blowing snow.”

Tornadoes in the South

The same storm system will swing a combination cold front across the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast. Near the front, a swift change of winds speed and/or direction with height, fueled by a fierce jet stream dip, will encourage those thunderstorms to spin and produce tornadoes. Some of the strong momentum in the upper atmosphere could also be mixed to the surface in the form of damaging straight-line wind gusts.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has drawn a Level 2 out of 5 “slight” risk of severe weather over portions of Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana for Thursday. It includes cities in East Texas such as Tyler and Lufkin, as well as Shreveport in northern Louisiana and cities south of Little Rock.

Friday is more concerning. The agency has taken the unusual step of drawing a Level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe weather three days in advance, accounting for what it warns could be “high winds and a few strong tornadoes.” The area stretches from near a line from Birmingham to Montgomery, Ala., east toward Savannah, Ga., and northeast through the Carolina Piedmont south of Raleigh, N.C.

It’s unclear which structure of severe thunderstorms will form. Rotating supercells with a couple of tornadoes are possible, or clustered storms more prone to producing straight-line winds could materialize. Either scenario would be problematic.

Heavy rain and strong winds in the East

Fortunately, it does appear that, for most areas in the southeast, this storm may feature less rainfall than several of the recent systems. That’s encouraging, since the ground is already so waterlogged from a month and a half of excessive rains. For the southeast, the convective nature of the rainfall, meaning more scattered in the form of thunderstorms and individual downpours, will lead to irregular and highly variable precipitation totals. Some spots might see only a half-inch of rain, while others get 2 or 3 inches in a short period.

In the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, forecasts are for around a half-inch to 2 inches. The upper end of this range could bring renewed river flooding after several gauges reached historic levels Wednesday.

How to prepare your home for extreme cold, and stay warm in a power outage

Like its predecessor, this storm will also contain strong wind gusts. Gusts of 50 mph are likely along the Interstate 95 corridor from North Carolina to Maine, with a few gusts of 60 mph along the immediate coastline of Long Island, parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Down East Maine will also see some very strong gusts. More power outages seem inevitable.

Frigid weather in storm’s wake

On the storm’s back side, the coldest air of the winter will plunge southward. The most bitter air is forecast to target the zone from Montana to the Texas Panhandle, where temperatures will be at least 30 to 40 degrees below normal over the weekend.

By Tuesday, the Weather Service projects subzero cold from Montana to Missouri.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

More on Winter Storm and Cold Wave Gerry:

Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

Here is more brand-new December and 2023 climatology:

Here is More Climate News from Wednesday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

More from the Weather Department:

Today’s News on Sustainable Energy, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

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Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

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