The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: U.S. February 2024 Record Scoreboard and Climatological Review
Dear Diary. It’s time once again for our monthly climatological review. Here on this site, we usually present monthly summaries near the 8th of each month, and each is available by clicking the link below:
https://guyonclimate.com/category/record-scoreboard-climatological-reviews/
I’m repeating this mantra every month:
February 2024 using 1901-2000 mean data got ranked by the National Center for Environmental Information for the lower 48 states as 3rd warmest, or 128th coolest since records began being kept in 1895 at +7.23°F(+4.02°C) above average.
Winter 2023/2024 using 1901-2000 mean data got ranked by the National Center for Environmental Information for the lower 48 states as the warmest, or 129th coolest since records began being kept in 1895 at +5.37°F(+2.98°C) above average and was historic for being that warm.
The above data was from:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings
February 2024 was relatively mild to warm from start to finish across the entire country. With the exception of one cold spell in January, Winter 2023/24 was mild, particularly across the nation’s northern tier of states. During February and Winter, as a whole, not one state saw below average temperatures:
You can check out record totals for yourself on my NCEI record archives:
NCEI Record Count Archive – Guy On Climate
Here are my two U.S. Daily Record Scoreboards updated through 3/09/2024 (data compiled from the following NCEI site):
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records
I’m also keeping tabs on record report totals to verify a scientific study I helped to complete in the decade of the 2000s. We’ll eventually see how skewed ratios of record warm to cold reports get by the year 2100, which the study mentions as 50-1 for DHMX vs. DLMN:
Brand new for 2024: I’ve started to add NCEI anomalies (F° departure from 1901-2000 data) on my record scoreboards. I’d like these record scoreboards to be a quick and dirty reference tool and a template for future NCEI record site graphics.
DHMX= Daily High Max Reports. DLMN= Daily Low Min Reports. DHMN= Daily High Min Reports. DLMX=Daily Low Max Reports.
Bold red, blue, or purple colored months, such as December 2023 and June 2021, that have ratios of >10 to 1 daily warm low records or <1 to 10 daily warm to low records are either historically hot or cold, most of which have made news. NCEI rankings are for the lower 48 states with the warmest ranking since 1895 of average temperatures being 129 and 1 being the coldest as of 2023. Blue colors represent cold months and red warm. Those months and years with counts close to a 1 to 1 ratio of highs to lows are colored black. All-time record hottest or coldest months and years are boldly colored in purple. NCDC rankings have been color coded (under tabs in each file) such that values of 54 to 74 are black representing neutral months or years (+ or – 10 from the average ranking of 64).
Totals are record reports for the entire United States including all territories minus those from Alaska. I’ve subtracted those from Alaska to get a better representation of what has occurred across the lower 48 states in association with lower 48 state rankings.
Record totals statistically matched up well with lower 48 state temperature averages throughout the winter of 2023/24.
February 2024 had approximately a 60 to 1 ratio of record DHMX to DLMN individual record counts, so the color I used for this month was dark red on the top chart.
February 2024 had approximately a 23 to 1 ratio of record DHMN to DLMX individual record counts, so the color I used for this month was dark red on the bottom chart.
Due to climate change, we are seeing fewer blue colors on these Record Scoreboards with time.
As stated, the average temperature lower 48 state ranking for February 2024 was 128, which was colored red since it was warmer than average.
I color rankings of +10 to -10 from the average ranking for the lower 48 states of 65 black, indicating that these are near average temperature wise. The top warmest ranking for 2024 would be 130 since rankings began in 1895.
We are seeing that March 2024 has gotten off to a very warm start, but meteorological models forecast a cooling trend going well into the month. I do expect to see another above average month, but one that is not historically warm.
Here is much more detailed climatology for February 2024 and Winter 2023/24 as complied by NOAA:
Assessing the U.S. Climate in February 2024
Warmest winter on record for the contiguous U.S. and a record wildfire claims more than a million acres in the southern Plains
PUBLISHED
MARCH 8, 2024
Related Links
February 2024 U.S. Climate Report (Available March 13, 2024)
National Temperature and Precipitation Maps
Climatological Rankings Explained
State of the Climate Summaries
Key Points:
- The 2023–24 winter season ranked warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. with eight states across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast each observing their warmest winter on record.
- The Smokehouse Creek wildfire burned more than a million acres in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The wildfire began on February 26 and has become the largest wildfire in Texas history.
- February 2024 was the third-warmest February on record for the nation and precipitation ranked in the driest third of the historical record for the month.
Other Highlights:
Temperature
The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in February was 41.1°F, 7.2°F above average, ranking third warmest in the 130-year record. February temperatures were above average across most of the contiguous U.S., while record-warm temperatures were observed across much of the Mississippi Valley and in parts of the Great Lakes and southern Plains. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri each had their warmest February on record.
The Alaska statewide February temperature was 10.3°F, 5.5°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the 100-year period of record for the state. Above-normal temperatures were observed across much of the state with near-normal temperatures observed in parts of southeast Alaska and Panhandle.
The meteorological winter (December–February) average temperature for the Lower 48 was 37.6°F, 5.4°F above average, ranking as the warmest winter on record. Temperatures were above average across a vast majority of the contiguous U.S. and near average along parts of the Gulf of Mexico. North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire each had their warmest winter on record.
The Alaska winter temperature was 6.4°F, 2.8°F above the long-term average, ranking in the middle third of the historical record for the state. Temperatures were above average across parts of the North Slope, West Coast, Southwest and Panhandle, while much of the Interior and south-central Alaska were near average for the season.
Precipitation
February precipitation for the contiguous U.S. was 1.86 inches, 0.27 inch below average, ranking in the driest third of the historical record. Precipitation was above average across much of the western U.S. and in parts of the central Appalachians, Southeast, and western High Plains. Conversely, precipitation was below normal across much of the eastern half of the U.S. and in parts of the Northwest, northern Plains and Southwest. Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York and Illinois each had their second-driest February on record.
Alaska’s average monthly precipitation ranked in the middle third of the historical record. Precipitation was above average in parts of the North Slope, West Coast and in parts of the south-central Gulf of Alaska coast, while below-normal precipitation was observed in parts of the northeast Interior and Panhandle during the month.
The U.S. winter precipitation total was 7.71 inches, 0.92 inch above average, ranking in the wettest third of the December–February record. Precipitation was above average across much of the contiguous U.S., while below-normal precipitation was observed along the Northern Tier and in parts of the Great Lakes and Southwest, and in small pockets of the Mississippi Valley and Maine. Connecticut and Delaware both had their third-wettest winter season on record.
For the winter season, precipitation ranked in the wettest third of the historical record for Alaska. Wetter-than-average conditions were observed across much of the state, while near-normal precipitation was observed in portions of the central Interior, south-central Interior and in parts of the Aleutians. Parts of the northeast Interior observed below-normal precipitation during this period.
Billion-Dollar Disasters
One new billion-dollar weather and climate disaster was confirmed in February 2024, as a January 8–10 southern tornado outbreak and east coast storm impacted more than a dozen states.
The U.S. has sustained 377 separate weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2024). The total cost of these 377 events exceeds $2.67 trillion.
Other Notable Events
A series of atmospheric river events brought heavy rain and snow to parts of the West during February, causing significant flooding, powerful winds, landslides and power outages in parts of California. The city of Los Angeles received more than 12 inches of rain during February, approximately three times the February average, becoming the wettest February in decades for the city.
Persistent warmth, with monthly temperature nearly 20°F above normal for the month, resulted in a steady decrease in ice coverage across the Great Lakes, which reached a historical low of 2.7% on February 11—the lowest ice coverage on record during mid February.
Unseasonably warm temperatures mixed with a vigorous cold front to fuel powerful storms in portions of the Upper Midwest that spawned tornadoes in Iowa and Illinois. Wisconsin had its first February tornado on record—an EF-2 near Evansville, Wisconsin.
Drought
According to the February 27 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 21.6% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down about 2% from the end of January. Drought conditions expanded or intensified along portions of the Northern Tier, and in parts of the central and northern Mississippi Valley, southern Plains, the Carolinas and Hawaii this month. Drought contracted or was reduced in intensity across much of the Southwest and Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the central Plains, northern Rockies and Puerto Rico.
Monthly Outlook
Above-average temperatures are favored to impact much of the eastern U.S. in March while precipitation is likely from the central Plains to the West Coast and from the Gulf of Mexico to southern portions of New England. Drought is likely to persist along portions of the Northern Tier, Southwest, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecasts and U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook website for more details.
Significant wildland fire potential for March is above normal across much of the Upper Midwest and in parts of the central and southern Plains. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.
This monthly summary from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia and the public to support informed decision-making. For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive February 2024 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on March 13, 2024. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.
Much More:
Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is more brand-new February 2024 climatology:
Here is More Climate News from Saturday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)