The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: It’s ‘Virtually Certain’ the World Has Already Breached 1.5C
Dear Diary. Let’s face and deal with reality. After many months of global averages at record highs of being above +1.5°C above preindustrial conditions, it’s time to declare the goal of keeping the planet cooler than that mark dead. Yes, after decades of plodding and pleading humanity to get its carbon act together, those in charge, whether they be in the government or private sector, have failed to deliver to keep our climatic environment intact. Can the next major goal of keeping Earth below +2.0°C be far behind?
A new article from Bloomberg summarizes this sad fact, which is our main topic of the day:
Weather & Science
It’s ‘Virtually Certain’ the World Has Already Breached 1.5C
Two new studies reveal that last year’s record heat is a sign that burning fossil fuels has already pushed the climate past a key threshold.
A structure burns during the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles. Photographer: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg
February 10, 2025 at 11:00 AM EST
The world may have already missed its chance to limit global warming to 1.5C, according to two new studies in Nature Climate Change.
The Paris Agreement was inked in 2015, with 196 countries agreeing to rein in greenhouse gas emissions to keep the global average temperature increase to “well below” 2C and ideally cap it at 1.5C compared to pre-industrial times. The new analyses show the world will surpass the latter, underscoring the urgent need to cut carbon emissions.
“Every increment of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius means worse extremes,” said Alex Cannon, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, and author of one of the studies. “If we continue warming the atmosphere, consequences will be greater.”
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In 2024, global temperatures reached 1.5C for the entire year, the first time it’s happened in recorded history. It was a stark departure from previous projections: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published just a year earlier suggested that temperatures would reach 1.5°C in the early 2030s if emissions weren’t cut. The breach left scientists wondering, “is this a sign? Are these short-term exceedances above that level indicative of us actually reaching that target sooner than we expected?” said Cannon.
The reason for those questions is because the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C threshold isn’t focused on daily or even yearly temperatures. Instead, it’s based on a 20-year retrospective average, which means the world won’t know it’s hit 1.5C until after the fact. The two new studies attempt to get around that by using climate models to look ahead based on current data to see if we’ve already entered a 20-year period above 1.5C.
Cannon’s study, and a separate study led by Emanuele Bevacqua, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Germany, both suggest that’s exactly what’s happened.
“I pronounce the 1.5C target mostly dead, ” Kate Marvel, a research physicist with NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies who was not part of either study, said in an email. “Yes, a single year over 1.5C doesn’t necessarily mean the average temperature over the next 20-year period is going to be 1.5C,” she said, “but these papers make a pretty compelling case that in models, the first single year above 1.5C is likely to fall within that 20-year period.”
The findings are part of a growing body of research warning the world that its climate targets are increasingly out of reach and that heating is accelerating. In fact, this January was the hottest on record despite the cooling influence of an emerging La Niña.
The new studies put the odds of being in the midst of a 20-year period where the Earth breaches 1.5C to be somewhere between “likely” and “virtually certain.” Despite that, both Cannon and Bevacqua agree that heating can be arrested by drastically reducing fossil fuel use.
But the chance of that happening is shrinking given the Trump administration’s assault on climate action. Since taking office his administration has taken steps to increase fossil fuel production and withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. Other world leaders are reportedly considering following suit, creating headwinds for the deep emissions cuts needed.
The 1.5°C threshold was included in the Paris Agreement largely at the behest of small island developing states, many of which would be wiped off the map by sea level rise should the planet heat beyond it. More recent research has found that even at 1.5C, small island developing states risk flooding from sea level rise.
“Even if we reach the 1.5-degree global warming level threshold in the future, we should still aim to not exceed this too much or even make sure that this is our temporary exceedance so that we can stabilize the temperature and at some point cool the temperature,” said Bevacqua.
That’s been a rallying cry for years. The world, though, has failed to heed it as carbon pollution has continued to climb to record highs.
“Rapid near-term emissions cuts can limit peak warming and reduce climate risks,” said Marvel. “Whether or not that merits action is not (just) for scientists to decide.”
Here are more “ETs” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is More Climate News from Saturday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)