Extreme Temperature Diary Friday September 4th, 2026/Main Topic: China’s Falling Emissions Amid Iran War Spark Hope for Decarbonization

China’s falling emissions amid Iran war spark hope of decarbonisation watershedwww.theguardian.com/environment/…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-03T09:38:37.752Z

China’s falling emissions amid Iran war spark hope of decarbonisation watershed | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian

Greenhouse gas emissions

China’s falling emissions amid Iran war spark hope of decarbonisation watershed

Oil consumption plummets and EV sales soar as analysts say demand may not fully return even if crude price falls

Jonathan Watts

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China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran, thanks to a sharp reduction in oil consumption and a steady rise in the use of electric vehicles and public transport, analysis shows.

The report reveals the role of clean energy in cushioning the price shocks caused by the strait of Hormuz crisis to the world’s biggest oil importer. It also reinforces hopes that China, which is the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter, may be nearing a turning point in decarbonising its economy.

China was able to increase overall transportation use, despite cutting oil imports by 32%, according to second-quarter energy data reported by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics and analysed for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

The reduction – equivalent to about a million barrels a day – from the world’s biggest petro-customer helped to stabilise global oil prices, which nevertheless surged by about 60% in the weeks and months after the first US airstrikes in late February.

How that was achieved has been the subject of considerable speculation. The analysis indicates that about two-thirds of the fall in imports came from running down, rather than building up, strategic oil stockpiles. The remaining third was largely covered by a reduction in demand.

vast numbers of wind turbines in coastal area
Wind turbines on the Yellow Sea coast of Yancheng, China. Photograph: Alex Plavevski/EPA

The country’s use of oil fell by 9% overall and by 16% for transport. While large numbers of petrol and diesel vehicles stayed off the roads, there was a surge in journeys by electric cars, buses, trains and trucks.

This electrifying trend had begun long before the strait of Hormuz crisis. China is by far the world’s biggest manufacturer, user and exporter of batteries, e-vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels. The disruption of oil supplies from the Gulf has strengthened the economic and strategic imperative of reducing petro-dependence.

In the first half of 2026, China’s shift towards electric vehicles displaced the equivalent of the UK’s entire oil consumption over a six-month period.

China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off nowRead more

Analysts predict much of this demand will not return even if global oil prices fall. “In a qualitative sense, there’s no question that the transport sector decarbonisation has been accelerated,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “It’s a validation of the energy security strategy that China has in place … It’s very clear that electrification is the winning strategy to insure against these kinds of shocks.”

Myllyvirta noted this was the first time China’s overall emissions had fallen due to a reduction in oil use rather than in coal consumption.

In fact, coal generation rose during the quarter due to shifting economic incentives and delays in adapting the country’s grid, which caused considerable wastage of wind and solar power. Despite this, observers believe the longer-term trend in China is away from fossil fuels.

Dr Muyi Yang, a senior analyst at Ember, which will next week publish a separate overview of China’s energy trends, said a fossil fuel peak was coming into view at the provincial and sectoral level. “The Iran crisis reinforces the case. The way China has been able to absorb its impact strengthens the confidence to go deeper and further.

“The risk of oil-import dependence increasingly comes from the geopolitical domain. This is a risk no country can effectively manage. So the more effective strategy is to reduce that exposure altogether. And China’s experience is demonstrating that this works.”

"Videos on social media showed dozens of coffins lined up beside mass graves, awaiting burial before the bodies decompose in the heat. 'There are hundreds of dead,' said Lt. Djabri Said of Civil Protection. The state-controlled private and public media have stuck to the figure of 12 deaths.

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T14:30:36.614Z

A death toll in the hundreds would make this year's Algeria wildfires one of the deadliest such events in history. A disturbing number of the top events have occurred in the past 10 years.

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T14:30:36.615Z

El Niño: quarter of UK food imports – including rice, coffee and cocoa – from parts of world most exposedAs climate change turbocharges El Niño, up to £17bn of UK food imports are in the line of fire.eciu.net/analysis/rep…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T09:17:16.856Z

From my friend @climatechris.bsky.social:"A glacier’s weight braces the slope it sits against, and permafrost joins the fractured rocks above it. When you lose both the permafrost and the glacier, the mountain loses its structural support."

Sean Sublette (@subletteweather.com) 2026-09-04T14:06:31.410Z

“Professor Michael Mann on climate change and the disaster in Nepal” by Becky Parker for #ProjectEarth:projectearth.global/news/profess…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T17:01:26.710Z

“Nepal flash flood; a climate warning from the roof of the world” by Peter Sagar for @northeastbylines.co.uk: northeastbylines.co.uk/news/world-n…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T16:43:36.684Z

Worth the read, well done. Wish more people followed and listened to Doctor Professor @michaelemann.bsky.social

(@dad4future.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T00:23:28.460Z

Heathrow expansion would make UK ‘overshoot’ climate targetswww.standard.co.uk/news/london/…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T08:12:49.775Z

If you're Catholic & believe in church-defined sin, there are a lot of new official sinners now, including fossil-fuel company execs, climate deniers, & billionaire eco-destroyers."Vatican theological commission defines ‘sin against creation & the Creator’www.americamagazine.org/news/2026/09…

Peter Gleick (@petergleick.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T14:46:04.466Z

What the heat waves in Europe tell us about the reliability of nuclear power corporateknights.com/energy/what-… via @corporateknight

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T07:59:17.706Z

Talking extreme weather and climate change on @npr.org with @billweircnn.bsky.social for the next hour. Tune in here! www.listentothemiddle.com

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-09-04T01:03:15.998Z

In addition, I'll also discuss Hurricane Lowell, which could pose a threat to the westernmost islands of Hawaii in the coming days.

Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T16:33:16.418Z

Meanwhile, downtown LA has a shot at one of its wettest early-September days in 149 years of recordkeeping (and it wouldn't take much rain to make that happen). More at our link below ⬇️

Bob Henson (@bhensonweather.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T18:16:04.179Z

🌀 Record Worth Breaking! Just one more week without a hurricane, and we break a 100+ year record for the latest forming hurricane – IF we even get one this year. The Atlantic has been laced with record storm shredding wind shear (red contours) in July and August. 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T12:52:52.673Z

Old Farmer's Almanac vs Farmer's Almanac winter "forecasts". We can now generate an ensemble Almanac probability distribution.

Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T14:13:51.712Z

Wind industry starts turning tables on critics with blade recycling. Recent dismantling of Scotland's first commercial wind farm shows the way. www.scotsman.com/business/win…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T08:18:05.323Z

More than half (53%) of Northern #Ireland's electricity came from renewable sources in the year to June.www.bbc.co.uk/news/article…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T08:16:54.991Z

Details of the Trump administration’s accord to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program are spurring criticism that the deal doesn't do enough to head off risks of nuclear proliferation www.wsj.com/world/middle… via @WSJ

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T08:02:02.719Z

The destruction of #Gaza's sewage systems by Israel now backfiring, causing cross-border impact due the warming water and algae growth that is affecting desalination plants on Israel's coastal areas. Here visible with satellite imagery at #Gaza's coastwww.haaretz.com/opinion/edit…

Wim Zwijnenburg (@wammezz.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T16:19:30.358Z

Attention Philadelphia!We're hosting a rally to demand that Drexel University maintain The Academy of Natural Sciences Museum open to the public.Join us on Tuesday morning at 10am in front of the academy. Please spread the word, we need all hands on deck!RSVP here: luma.com/1qwnrqz2

Sarah McAnulty, Ph.D. (@sarahmackattack.bsky.social) 2026-09-03T21:54:54.626Z

" #ScienceUnderSiege with Michael Mann" | My recent interview with John Mulkins of the "Peaceful Political Revolution in America" podcast: www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyFh…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T14:38:35.482Z

Sometimes a sense of humor is better than an admonition.

Peter Gleick (@petergleick.bsky.social) 2026-09-04T06:05:09.957Z

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