Extreme Temperature Diary- Friday September 11th, 2026/Main Topic: Long Streak of Hottest Months on Record Has Begun for the Planet

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Now that the summer peak is behind us, we can confidently conclude that 2024 will retain its title for warmest day on record, with 2023 coming in 2nd and 2026 coming in a close 3rd. August was nonetheless the warmest month on record, as a growing El Nino event adds to steady ongoing warming.

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T13:42:09.670Z

August was the hottest month on record for the planet. What does it mean? I'll be on #BBCNews discussing ~6:40pm ET (~11:40pm London local time): www.bbc.com/live#ClimateCrisis

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-10T21:24:51.831Z

I review the huge number of all-time heat records set in August: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/eart…

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-09-10T15:51:31.839Z

Earth just had its hottest August on record » Yale Climate Connections

Eye on the Storm

Earth just had its hottest August on record

The intensifying super El Niño, combined with global warming, is favored to make 2026 the hottest year on record, with 2027 expected to be even hotter.

Jeff MastersBob Henson

by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

[Haz clic aquí para leer en español]

August 2026 was the planet’s hottest August since modern record-keeping began in 1850, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported September 10. NASA also rated it as the hottest August, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated it as the hottest month in recorded history, tied with July 2023. The global average temperature for January-August 2026 was the second-highest on record, trailing only 2024.

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2026, the world’s hottest August since record-keeping began in 1850. Globally, 13.2% of land and ocean surfaces set record-high August temperatures — the largest areal extent for any August on record and the third-highest for any month since 1951, trailing only May 2024 (14.3%) and April 2024 (13.9%). No land or ocean areas experienced record-cold August temperatures. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

Global ocean surface temperatures were the warmest on record for August, while global land temperatures were the second-warmest. The month was also the second-warmest August on record for global temperatures estimated by satellite through the lowest few miles of the atmosphere (the lower troposphere). North America and Africa both recorded their hottest August on record; Asia, its second-hottest; the Arctic, its third-hottest; South America and Europe, their fourth-hottest; and Oceania, its eighth-hottest.

The June-July-August period (summer in the Northern Hemisphere) was the hottest on record for North America, Africa, and the Arctic; second-hottest in Europe; third-hottest in Asia; and for South America and Oceania, the fourth-hottest.

As detailed in our post yesterday, August 2026 was the hottest August in contiguous U.S. history, beating the record set in 1983. The June-July-August period was the hottest summer on record, and the year-to-date period is also the hottest on record. The previous hottest summer record was jointly held by 2021 and the Dust Bowl year of 1936.

According to NCEI’s statistical analysis, there is a greater than 98% chance that 2026 will rank among the three warmest years on record, but only a 1.4% chance it will be the hottest year on record. However, this statistics-based product is not designed to explicitly take El Niño or La Niña events into account, so with a record-strong global-atmosphere-warming El Niño event in full swing, it’s quite possible that 2026 will be the hottest year on record. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather posits (see Bluesky post below) that 2026 has a 75% chance of being the warmest year on record, with 2027 likely to run away with the record. (Strong El Niño events normally peak in northern winter, and global temperature is typically higher in the second calendar year of the event than in the first one because of El Niño’s massive release of heat from ocean to atmosphere.)

With 8 months of the year now in, and greater certainty in El Nino forecasts for the remainder of the year, it is now looking like 2026 is likely (~75% chance) to be the warmest year on record in ERA5.

Zeke Hausfather (@zekehausfather.com) 2026-09-02T16:49:03.000Z

NOAA expects the current strong El Niño event to reach “super” status

An El Niño advisory continues in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its September 10 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. As of September 8, weekly average sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region were at 1.8°C above average – well above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño event – and the three-month value for June-July-August was 1.4°C above average. The threshold for a very strong event is 2°C (colloquially dubbed a “super” event).

According to official probabilities from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued on September 10, it is essentially certain (100% chance) that El Niño conditions will continue through January-February-March 2027. By April-May-June, neutral conditions become the most likely outcome (55% chance, with a 43% chance of El Niño and a 2% chance of La Niña). Those April-to-June averages likely reflect a strong transition expected to be in progress during the spring. It’s worth noting that a strong El Niño event is usually (though not always!) followed by a moderate to strong La Niña event by the subsequent fall and winter, which in this case would be 2027-28.

A longer perspective for August #Arctic sea ice extent (since the year 1850)…You can access this dataset at doi.org/10.7265/jj4s…

Zack Labe (@zacklabe.com) 2026-09-06T17:31:58.425Z

https://bsky.app/profile/zacklabe.com/post/3muujkis2vs2h

Arctic sea ice: seventh-lowest August extent on record

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic sea ice extent during August 2026 was the 7th-lowest in the 48-year satellite record. The Arctic experienced its third-warmest August on record. Antarctic sea ice extent in August 2026 was the third-lowest on record. The Antarctic region had above-average temperatures, which did not rank in the top 10 on record.

Last month was the 3rd lowest #Antarctic sea ice extent on record for the month of August.This was 1,260,000 km² below the 1981-2010 August average. Data from the @nsidc.bsky.social at nsidc.org/data/seaice_…

Zack Labe (@zacklabe.com) 2026-09-03T12:42:16.712Z

Notable global heat and cold marks for August 2026

Weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera has documented the records listed below in August. Follow him on Bluesky: @extremetemps.bsky.social or X: @extremetemps.

  • Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.0°C (125.6°F) at Kuwait City, Kuwait, August 12;
  • Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -34.9°C (-30.8°F) at Summit, Greenland, August 28;
  • Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 42.5°C (108.5°F) at Walvis Bay Airport, Namibia, August 24; and
  • Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -77.2°C (-107.0°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, August 1, and Concordia, Antarctica, August 25.

Nineteen all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of August

Nineteen all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of August

Chad: 48.0°C (118.4°F) at Faya, May 19 (tie)
Bahrain: 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Bahrain Airport, May 29
Jersey (UK territory): 39.3°C (102.6°F) at Maison St. Louis, June 25
Guernsey (UK territory): 36.4°C (97.5°F) at Rocquaine Bay, June 25
Luxembourg: 40.9°C (105.6°F) at Reckange, June 26
Denmark: 37.0°C (98.6°F) at Odum and Odense, June 27
Germany: 41.8°C (107.2°F) at Mockern-Drewitz, June 27
Czech Republic: 41.9°C (107.4°F) at Doksany, June 28
Poland: 40.5°C (104.9°F)at Slubice, June 28
Belarus: 40.4°C (104.7°F)at Pinsk, June 29
Slovakia: 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Kamenice nad Hronom, June 30; broken again with 41.4°C (106.5) at Kamenica nad Hronom, August 5; broken again with 42.2°C (108.0°F) at Dolné Plachtincy, August 6
Hungary: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Szecseny, June 30 Uzbekistan: 49.7°C (121.5°F) at Achkuduk, July 18 (tie)
Kyrgyzstan: 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Jangy Jer, July 19
Switzerland: 39.7°C (103.5°F) at  Basel, July 30 (tie)
Liechtenstein: 38.2°C (100.8°F) at Balzers, July 30; broken again with 38.5°C (101.3°F) at Balzers, August 4
South Korea: 41.4°C (106.5°F) at Yangsan, July 31; broken again with 42.5°C (108.5°F) at Yangsan, August 2
Austria: 41.0°C (105.8°F) at Vienna Stammersdorf, August 4; broken again with 41.2°C (106.2°F) at Bad Deutsch-Alternburg, August 5
Bahamas: 36.7°C (98.0°F) at Freeport, August 14

One all-time national/territorial cold record beaten or tied as of the end of August

Cuba: 0°C (32.0°F) at Indio Hatuey, February 3

(For more record lists, hit the following link: Earth just had its hottest August on record » Yale Climate Connections.)

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a… More by Jeff Masters

Bob Henson

Bob Henson

Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance… More by Bob Henson

Dr. Jeff Master’s and Bob Henson’s “Earth just had its hottest August on record” was first published on Yale Climate Connections, a program of the Yale School of the Environment, available at: http://yaleclimateconnections.org. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 license (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5).

“Confronting Climate Failure In a Summer of Steaming Oceans And Devastated Villages” by Patrick Mazza for @counterpunchmedia.bsky.social:www.counterpunch.org/2026/09/10/c…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-10T21:51:04.321Z

Rising global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels are transforming the world’s forests, wetlands and tundra to the point they are releasing emissions that could further worsen global heating by as much as 30%, a new study has found. www.theguardian.com/environment/…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:15:56.791Z

The article highlights an important research topic that has challenged scientists for years. Given its real-world implications, further research is still needed. @biometlab.bsky.social @paulstoy.bsky.social @profdesai.bsky.social @michaelemann.bsky.social

Jose D Fuentes (@jdfuentes.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T14:51:57.577Z

Hyperscale data centres currently going through the UK planning system would require colossal amounts of electricity.observer.co.uk/news/climate…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:11:51.617Z

Factcheck: #Reform UK’s 45 false or misleading claims about #climate and #energy.www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-re…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T11:04:07.695Z

NEW podcast series explaining the fundamentals of personal climate strategies, by answering some of the questions I get asked most often.If my workshop is the graduate seminar, this is office hours.It's not paywalled; feel free to share it.alexsteffen.substack.com/p/do-i-even-…

Alex Steffen (@alexsteffen.bsky.social) 2026-09-10T21:22:38.190Z

"Climate Crisis Solvable: Earth's Resilience Offers Hope, Mann Argues" by Hwang Ji-yoon for @TheChosun [Korea]: www.chosun.com/english/trav…#OurFragileMoment

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T17:56:56.895Z

It’s no contest! Comparing the Dust Bowl to Modern Warming. This summer was 2.5°F hotter globally than the summer of 1936. BUT the Dust Bowl heat was fierce and life-changing for many in the US. It’s a fascinating tale. Here’s more background on it all.

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-09-10T16:51:59.614Z

It’s peak #hurricane season, and the Atlantic has been dead as a doornail. Sure, shear has been rampant due to El Niño. But it’s not just shear. The basin as a whole has been very “stable”, especially the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T01:13:04.418Z

How should decision makers procure the flexibility their power systems need? What role can battery energy storage systems (BESS) play in providing that flexibility? And what conditions are needed to turn BESS pipelines into sustained deployment? rmi.org/resources/pr…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:07:42.353Z

The grid, the grid, the grid – key to the energy transition.www.theguardian.com/business/202…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:05:57.454Z

Commercial rooftop solar could deliver 60GW of UK generation.www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/commercial-s…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:01:53.728Z

#AI needs power, so the industry went looking for ground where one in five live in poverty.The first #nuclear reactor designed to operate underground, drilled through the aquifer, on land where the Army still detonates waste explosives under federal permit.kansascitydefender.com/justice/inve…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:45:31.487Z

"We have started losing control of AI. It’s time to shut it down. I wondered if and when humanity would first lose control of these machines. We now have an answer: basically as soon as it became possible."www.theguardian.com/commentisfre…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-11T09:14:05.598Z

Join me TOMORROW for ‘Science Communication that Changes Minds & Behaviors’ in the NBS Building. This discussion finds itself at the intersection of science, persuasion, and public impact beginning at 11AM. Lunch to follow.

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-10T22:28:34.750Z

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