Extreme Temperature Diary- Friday March 14th, 2025/ Main Topic: Forecast Big Severe Weather Outbreak Spurred by Record Warmth

On this day in 1993, we had the "Storm of the Century" — also called the 1993 Superstorm and the Blizzard of 1993.6 to 14" of snow fell in the DC area, with some ice and rain in the mix too!See more info at cwg.live

Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather.bsky.social) 2025-03-13T14:48:34.415Z

The #SPC has updated the Day 2 Convective Outlook, raising the risk to Level 5 out of 5—the highest possible threat level. The last time a Day 2 Outlook reached this level was in 2012! Be prepared to respond to this violent system tomorrow!#SCS

Mona Hemmati (@monahemmati.bsky.social) 2025-03-14T19:28:25.506Z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/03/14/severe-weather-outbreak-tornado-wildfire-forecast

Severe weather expected across central, eastern U.S. through weekend

Strong tornadoes and wildfires possible as a massive three-day severe weather outbreak begins Friday.

By Matthew Cappucci and Ben Noll

The central and eastern United States are facing an outbreak of severe weather that could last until Sunday, including the potential for strong tornadoes, hail and dangerous winds gusting 60 to 80 mph.

Dangerous conditions will peak Saturday, with one of the most prolific tornado-producing setups in years expected to develop over the Deep South — with disastrous results likely.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 4 out of 5 risk for both days in some areas. The Friday risk zone includes parts of the Corn Belt and mid-Mississippi Valley, while Saturday’s blankets Mississippi, western Alabama and northeast Louisiana.

On Saturday, it’s probable that the National Weather Service will update to a top-tier and rare high (Level 5 out of 5) risk, driven by the likelihood of intense, long-track tornadoes. It will be the first high risk rating since May 6, 2024. High risks are issued on less than 1 percent of all occasions. Since 2000, there have only been 68 days that were deemed high risk.

The same storm system is also driving high fire risk in the High Plains and southern Plains on Friday, the Storm Prediction Center warned.

“A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread,” the agency wrote.

Meanwhile, winter storm watches are in effect in eastern parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota, where the system’s cold side will drop a plowable snow.

Here’s where dangerous weather could hit in the next few days:

Friday

Areas: A moderate (Level 4 out of 5) risk has been issued for parts of the Mississippi Valley from southeast Iowa to Memphis. Cities including St. Louis, Paducah, Kentucky and Memphis are in the core of the greatest tornado risk, with Des Moines and Springfield, Illinois, facing the risk of straight-line winds topping 70 mph. A broader enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risk extends from Omaha to central Mississippi and western Alabama. Chicago and Nashville have a slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk.

Setup: A bowling ball of low pressure was present over the New Mexico/Colorado border early Friday. It will have a negative tilt, meaning the disturbance will be shaped like a backslash — giving the system more kick, and leading to more severe weather.

Ahead of the low-pressure system, warm, humid air is wafting north from the Gulf of Mexico, providing ample fuel for storms. The low pressure is also dragging a cold front east, which will be the trigger for severe weather.

And with ferocious jet stream wind energy aloft, storms will be able to mix momentum to the surface in the form of destructive gusts. Tornadoes will be common too.

There will be two zones of severe weather.

Northern zone: A squall line will form in eastern Missouri and central Iowa during the midafternoon hours. It will contain damaging gusts of 60 to 80 mph. By sunset, it will begin producing quick-hitting tornadoes. The line will move swiftly east into Illinois before gradually dissipating as it enters Indiana.

Southern zone: Farther south, the environment over eastern Arkansas, northern and central Mississippi and northwest Alabama will be supportive of strong tornadoes if thunderstorms can form. Since the main weather system is passing to the north, there will be less forcing, or less of a trigger, for storms to form. That means there will be fewer storms — but those that do form will tap into an environment ripe for dangerous rotating supercells. A few significant tornadoes are possible overnight. Memphis has seen its severe weather risk increase.

If you are in the zone affected, have a way to be notified of overnight weather warnings — and prepare a shelter plan.

Saturday

Areas: A moderate (Level 4 out of 5) risk has been drawn for parts of greater New Orleans, as well as southern and central Mississippi, and western, southern and central Alabama. Included in the zone are Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Montgomery in Alabama, and Meridian, Jackson and Hattiesburg in Mississippi. An enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risk also covers Mobile, Alabama, Nashville and Atlanta.

It’s likely that a high (Level 5 out of 5) risk — reserved for only the most extreme events — will be drawn across Mississippi and west central Alabama on Saturday. It will probably encompass the Interstate 59-20 corridor.

Setup: Low pressure will swing a cold front east. Robust gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the cold front, providing ample instability, or thunderstorm fuel. Winds at the surface will be out of the south or south-southeast, but at 10,000 feet, winds will be roaring out of the southwest at very swift speeds. That means any storms that grow tall enough will be affected by those changing winds with height and will rotate. That could lead to a tornado threat — and given the wind dynamics at play, the risk of a multiple strong tornadoes. The tornadoes will move swiftly to the northeast and could be long-lived, with lengthy damage tracks.

Impacts: Thunderstorms may produce strong to violent tornadoes, destructive straight-line winds and hail to the size of hen’s eggs. Consider moving to a sturdy structure with a belowground shelter or basement before storms form. Be ready to hunker down as early as 11 a.m.

Sunday

A slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather covers areas from Philadelphia to Jacksonville, Florida, and includes Washington, Baltimore and Richmond, as well as Raleigh and Wilmington in North Carolina.

There could be additional thunderstorms along the cold front as it pushes east. With strong jet stream winds aloft, storms could produce gusts of up to 60 mph at the surface. An isolated tornado is possible.

The big picture

It’s somewhat rare to have two weather systems produce two different tornado outbreaks on back-to-back days. This plot depicts where weather models are simulating rotating updrafts, which could produce tornadoes:

Extreme fire weather risk

Eastern New Mexico, northern Texas, much of Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri also face an extremely critical fire weather risk Friday — the highest warning level.

The fire risk will build during Friday morning as winds strengthen to tropical storm-force levels.

The Storm Prediction Center is warning that “a wildfire outbreak appears likely on Friday” and that the combination of extremely low humidity, abundant fire fuel and extremely strong gusts of 50 to 80 mph will drive a “high-end fire weather threat.”

More than 6.5 million people live in the extreme risk area which includes cities such as Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, and Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas.

A critical risk (level 2 out of 3) covers nearly 19 million additional people across nine states. Cities included are San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and Kansas City, Missouri.

Local meteorologists are warning that “any fire can get out of control very fast” and advising people not to discard cigarettes on the ground, to avoid dragging tow chains on the ground, to not drive on park on tall grass, to respect burn bans and to avoid lighting outdoor fires.

By Matthew Cappucci Matthew Cappucci is a meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang. He earned a B.A. in atmospheric sciences from Harvard University in 2019, and has contributed to The Washington Post since he was 18. He is an avid storm chaser and adventurer, and covers all types of weather, climate science, and astronomy.follow on X@MatthewCappucci

By Ben Noll Ben Noll is a meteorologist with a passion for communicating the ‘why behind the weather,’ extreme events and climate trends. He has extensive experience working with meteorological data and creating weather graphics on a supercomputer, developing meteorological services in the Pacific Islands, and short, medium and long-range weather prediction. Follow on X @BenNollWeather

The first time NOAA maxed out its tornado warning scale a day in advance was April 6, 2006:What followed was a multi-state outbreak of 79 tornadoes that left 10 people dead and a suburb of Nashville, Tennessee in ruins.en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado…

Eric Holthaus (@ericholthaus.com) 2025-03-14T19:40:19.148Z

The nation's deadliest tornado on record struck a century ago on Tues. 3/18. From today into the weekend, widespread tornadoes will prowl the Mississippi Valley and South in a potentially high-end outbreak, with "extremely critical" fire weather in OK/TX.yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/03/pote…

Bob Henson (@bhensonweather.bsky.social) 2025-03-14T16:05:13.164Z

Spectacular work from NOAA/NWS/SPC. As far back as last Mon 3/10, the highest-possible Day 6 rating was in place over the same gen area as the current Day 2 high risk.Only two other times in its 39-year history has the Day 2 outlook had a "high risk" area. The others were on 4/7/06 and 4/14/12.

Bob Henson (@bhensonweather.bsky.social) 2025-03-14T18:50:19.655Z

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) averaged about 427 ppm in February 2025 (new record high) 🚨10 years ago February averaged about 401 ppm. Preliminary data from gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/Meanwhile… "Cuts target world-leading greenhouse gas observatory in Hawaii" (www.reuters.com/sustainabili…)

Zack Labe (@zacklabe.com) 2025-03-14T19:42:08.915Z

New: A NOAA lab in Hawaii that is connected to the longest-running observation of global greenhouse gas concentrations is slated for closure in August, according to a list of lease terminations Democratic members of Congress shared with @washingtonpost.com.

Scott Dance (@byscottdance.com) 2025-03-14T18:23:03.986Z

Insurers warn that mass firings at NASA, the US Geological Survey and other science agencies could threaten the public weather and geospatial data they use to manage natural disaster risks — and could raise prices for consumers:on.ft.com/3DI4Q1K

Lee Harris (@leeharris.ft.com) 2025-03-14T12:40:03.392Z

Earth’s orbit is filling up with junk. Greenhouse gases are making the problem worse.By the end of the century, a shrinking atmosphere could create a minefield for satellites.grist.org/science/spac…#Space #Satellites #Climate #Environment #Junk

Grist (@gristnews.bsky.social) 2025-03-13T13:27:21.410Z

MEDIA RELEASE: Coal and gas exporters are causing this mess. They should help clean it up. Ordinary households and businesses are paying the cost of floods and fires caused by giant global energy companies. It’s time we made them pay instead of us. #auspol #climate

The Australia Institute (@australiainstitute.org.au) 2025-03-11T03:00:21.959Z

Spectacular work from NOAA/NWS/SPC. As far back as last Mon 3/10, the highest-possible Day 6 rating was in place over the same gen area as the current Day 2 high risk.Only two other times in its 39-year history has the Day 2 outlook had a "high risk" area. The others were on 4/7/06 and 4/14/12.

Bob Henson (@bhensonweather.bsky.social) 2025-03-14T18:50:19.655Z

Before a packed crowd of oil and gas executives on Monday, Chris Wright, the U.S. energy secretary, said natural gas was preferable to renewable energy and climate change was a “side effect of building the modern world.”

The New York Times (@nytimes.com) 2025-03-10T22:14:00.025Z

California just debunked a big myth about renewable energy.The state went a record 98 of 116 days providing up to 10 hours of electricity with renewables alone.grist.org/energy/calif…#CA #California #Electricity #Renewables #Energy

Grist (@gristnews.bsky.social) 2025-03-11T17:24:22.036Z

The future of energy is renewable. China dominates (!!!) renewable energy manufacturing. Impressive graphic by @haugejostein. Trump starting a trade war pushes former allies into the arms of your friendly neighborhood renewable technology dealer.

Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600.bsky.social) 2025-03-13T15:22:01.289Z

🇪🇺 The EU Commission recently presented their Affordable Energy Action Plan.⚡️ Renewable energy is the key to affordable energy.🌍 Energy from renewable sources is cheaper that from fossil fuels.💪 We need energy that's good for our wallet & our planet.

European Greens (@europeangreens.eu) 2025-03-13T09:30:34.246Z

The Rural Energy for America Program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, offers loan financing or grant funding for farmers and rural businesses that invest in renewable energy projects to improve their energy efficiency.

Ohio Capital Journal (@ohiocapitaljournal.com) 2025-03-14T12:35:45.367Z

How have Elon Musk and Donald Trump aimlessly attacked our community this time, you ask? Now they're closing the Bureau of Land Management Field Office in Ukiah.This will impact park management, wildfire prevention, renewable energy projects, and tons more.

Rep. Jared Huffman (@rephuffman.bsky.social) 2025-03-14T15:48:17.801Z

Due to recent firings + voluntary departures of hundreds of people at the NOAA, which oversees the NWS, three local forecasting offices have cut back on collecting basic data, with one site in Kotzebue, Alaska, discontinuing weather balloon launches altogether.www.bloomberg.com/news/feature…

Zahra Hirji (@zhirji.bsky.social) 2025-03-14T19:24:17.247Z

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