Winter Heat and Cold Diary December 14-16, 2017 -The Thomas Fire

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Saturday December 16th… Dear Diary. Rather than addressing another climate change related topic today I’m going to present more information on the fires in California since winds have once again made the situation much worse last night. Please check local programming if you are located in areas of high fire danger. What I’m presenting should let the rest of the nation know how dire this situation is. Here is what I am seeing from social media:

FIRE UPDATE: jumps San Ysidro Canyon; evacuations ordered for Montecito, Summerland.    Here is their article:
 http://The Tribune‏ Verified account @SLOTribune Follow Follow @SLOTribune More FIRE UPDATE: #ThomasFire jumps San Ysidro Canyon; evacuations ordered for Montecito, Summerland. #CAFires #wildfires

“The fire, which started on Dec. 4, has burned 256,000 square acres northwest of Los Angeles, according to Cal Fire, and has the potential to become the biggest fire ever in California since recording began in 1932. No. 1 is the 2003 Cedar Fire, which killed 15 people and burned just over 273,000 acres in San Diego. No. 2 in California is the Rush Fire in the northern portion of the state at 271,911 acres in 2012. But the fire also burned in Nevada for a total of 315,577 acres.

A total of 8,370 firefighters, 32 helicopters and 77 bulldozers were working the blaze Saturday morning. Two people have been killed in the fire, which has also destroyed 1,009 structures, damaged 240 structures and threatens 18,000 more.”

1:18 PM – 16 Dec 2017

Captain Dave Zaniboni – “this is the worst possible conditions firefighters face” – wind, low humidity, plenty of fuel – 65mph winds going through canyons towards ocean. Evacuate now. 8:40 AM – 16 Dec 2017

The is pushing further toward the north/east edges of the Santa Barbara area, including Montecito. Critical fire weather conditions Sat into Sun:

.MANDATORY EVAC ORDER: Santa Barbara City: the area east of Hwy 154 to Mission Canyon Rd and north of 192 to East Camino Cielo. Leave Now.
8:39 AM – 16 Dec 2017

VIIRS satellite fire detections show ‘s rapid spread to the west due to 12/16 strong winds. Red=newer, yellow=older. Green line is fire boundary late last night. Evacuate early if authorities notify you.
3:58 PM – 16 Dec 2017

I may add more relevant information later if it crosses my radar.

The Climate Guy

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Friday December 15th… Dear Diary. Here is today’s climate change related topic:

Putting a Human Face on the Consequences of Climate Change

Sometimes we as human beings gloss over tragic statistics of people getting hurt or killed from just about anything, whether from auto accidents or what this web site is about, climate change. Statistics are so cold and well, calculating and unfeeling. Any statistics pointing to the conclusion that the Earth is warming cementing scientific findings about the consequences of climate change are helpful, but can resonate as hollow when it comes to human emotion. I find nothing wrong with putting a face on a climate change problem like presenting an article with a picture of a starving polar bear to stir people into action.

This month we are dealing with the California fires, in particular the Thomas fire. Today I’d like to present the picture of a man who has sacrificed his life to help stop the fires:

“Cory Iverson, 32, died today fighting the in Southern California. It is the 4th largest fire in state history. Cory was a fire apparatus engineer, part of CalFire’s San Diego unit. He is survived by his wife & 2yo daughter. His wife is expecting their 2nd child.”

Cory Iverson’s death can be directly linked to the Thomas fire which, when more attribution studies come out, I’m sure will be directly linked with climate change. I wonder what Cory’s daughter pictured here will think of humanity that decade after decade since 1980 has put off substantial mitigation efforts once she enters high school? Will she look on special energy interests with disdain? What will the Cory family think of the Trump administration say by the year 2030? Whether or not Cory’s family become activists fighting climate change, they are real victims with real needs. 

The numbers affected directly or indirectly by climate change are and will be staggering as we go through this century. For example, millions from Puerto Rico due to Maria, millions in Florida and Texas due to Harvey and Irma; millions in Syria partially due to drought; millions in India and Pakistan due to heat; and yes millions in the Los Angeles basin due to fire can put the blame on their suffering from carbon pollution just this year alone. I’d really like people to play the “blame game” more than theses victims already do insisting on change, fighting for a better world.

I’ve been fortunate to live in a time in history when life is more comfortable with more numerous conveniences that at any time since apes evolved to become mankind…mostly due to the Industrial Revolution. War across the planet is at a minimum, though still raging in hot spots. Various races are coming to accept their differences and even celebrate diversity. Will the early 21st century be the pinnacle of civilization before taking a deep, dark fall due to climate change? By putting  just one family’s face on the climate change issue I hope in a small way to prevent that fall…pining hopes on  green, post carbon pollution solutions.

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Here is what California is facing in the next few days:

Red Flag Conditions returning late tonight through Sunday as the next round of Sundowner & peak over . There will likely be impacts on the .

What are sundowner winds? From Wikipedia: A sundowner is an offshore northerly wind in Santa Barbara, California. It occurs when a region of high pressure is directly north of the area, the coast of which trends east–west. This contrasts with the more typical onshore flow. The winds blow with greatest force when the pressure gradient is perpendicular to the axis of the Santa Ynez Mountains, which rise directly behind Santa Barbara.

This is the extent of the Thomas fire as of this morning:

From Eric Holthaus:

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It’s been several days since I presented my “climate score board.” Here is what we see through 12/11/17:

The ratio of record DHMX to DLMN remains above 10 to 1 for December 2017 with most of the record warmth occurring in the western U.S. Cold air masses in the wake of the southern snow storm have just not been of record cold proportion. We’ll see if and where we get a substantial number of record lows in the U.S. later this month.

You don’t see a phenomena like this very often:

On December 13th, Paso Robles Airport set both a record daily high temperature and a record daily low temperature on the same day!

Here’s a little more on “Baked Alaska”. You can read much more on Alaska’s warmth from yesterday’s diary post (DEC 14th):

Here are records from the Southern California area from today and Thursday the 14th:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
540 PM PST FRI DEC 15 2017

…DEC 15 2017 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA…

…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PASO ROBLES AIRPORT CA…

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES WAS SET AT PASO ROBLES
AIRPORT CA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 73 SET IN 1958.

…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LOS ANGELES AIRPORT…

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT LOS ANGELES
AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 SET IN 2013.

..DEC 14 2017 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA…
…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SANDBERG CA…

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES WAS SET AT SANDBERG CA
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 1998.

…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SANDBERG CA…

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES WAS SET AT SANDBERG CA
YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 2016.

The Climate Guy

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Thursday December 14th… Dear Diary. Here is today’s climate change related topic:

The Arctic is Warming Very Fast…Case in Point Alaska

It’s well known that the planet has been warming faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes. Starting around early December going through at least Christmas we will see some astounding warmth across Alaska. Here is a note I saw this morning:

A number of places around AK have seen the warmest (or 2nd warmest) December 1-13 time period during their period of record.

Anchorage #1
Annette Island #1
Bettles #1
Delta Junction #1
Fairbanks #2
Gulkana #1
Juneau AP #1
McGrath #1
Talkeetna #2
Yakutat Tie #1

6:42 PM – 13 Dec 2017
 Also from climatologist Brian Brettschneider:

Anchorage with a max of 45°F+ for the fourth day in a row. That is a December record for consecutive days. ☹️

Ice thickness on my neighborhood lake has begun to thin. That is practically impossible to do in December with no solar energy (because of the latitude) and freezing temperatures a near certainty at night (at least). My ice reading yesterday included 1/2″ of half-frozen slush.

As noted by Bob Henson:

Here’s more warmth recorded from Rick Thoman:

Nearly all of Alaska was ten degrees (F) or more above average on Monday, with some Interior locations 30 degrees or more above average. Several daily record max temps, including 59F at Annette and 34F at Bettles.
We have this statement from Deke Arndt concerning the warmth at Point Barrow:

Some feedback on my Utqiaġvik/Barrow article: why so much warming there compared to rest of world?
Fact is: Generally speaking, cold places, seasons and even times of day are warming faster than warm ones. Science has anticipated this for yrs/decades.

9:48 AM – 11 Dec 2017
 Here is a quote from Deke’s article linked above:
“The Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world. This “Arctic amplification” is driven by a handful of factors; the largest of these is the retreat of seasonal snow and ice. As the white stuff goes away, it exposes darker surfaces and land cover underneath; this introduces an additional warming effect across the region.”
The point here is that Alaska is another canary in the coal mine in association with global warming. The warmth won’t kill anyone living there, but does point to verification of climate models boding gloom and doom elsewhere. Also, loss of sea ice and permafrost means that those living in the northern part of the state are and will have to adapt and change their lifestyles.
Our “Rediculously Resilient Ridge” has been poking northward into Alaska, thus helping to create above average conditions. The ridge should persist through Christmas. Here is the latest GFS model valid for Friday:
Some bad news… It now appears that the RRR won’t retrograde far enough west to allow systems to undercut the thing bringing much needed precipitation to the area. The cold system over Southern California on the Pivotal Weather chart looks too far east to bring rainfall to the area…just more dry Santa Ana wind in its wake.
Here are a slew of record reports from yesterday:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 AM PST THU DEC 14 2017…DEC 13 2017 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA…A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT LONG BEACH
AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THAT BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 80 DEGREES
SET IN 1998.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT WOODLAND HILLS
(PIERCE COLLEGE) YESTERDAY. THAT BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 84
DEGREES SET IN 2010.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT SANDBERG
YESTERDAY. THAT BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 67 DEGREES SET IN
2010.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT
YESTERDAY. THAT BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 84 DEGREES SET IN
1952.
*AT PASO ROBLES AIRPORT…THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES TIED THE
RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE SET IN 1967 AND AGAIN IN 2013. LATER IN THE
DAY…THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES BROKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD.
A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 79 DEGREES WAS SET AT PASO ROBLES
AIRPORT CA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 76 SET IN 1958.
A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES WAS SET AT CAMARILLO
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1958.
A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES WAS TIED AT NWS
OXNARD TODAY. THIS TIESS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 2004.

A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT LONG BEACH
AIRPORT CA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 84 SET IN 1958.

A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 78 DEGREES WAS TIED AT SANTA
BARBARA AIRPORT CA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 78 SET IN 1958.

As noted by the * it’s been so dry that Paso Robes set a record low and high in the same calendar  day!

Check out this cool climate fact… Yesterday at Paso Robles Airport, both record high & low temperatures were set for the date, Dec.13. The high of 73 broke the daily record of 72 set in 1988, while the low of 22 degrees tied the record low for the date set in 1967 & 2013
6:18 AM – 14 Dec 2017

 

I’ll add more relevant information if it crosses my radar later today.

The Climate Guy

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