Wednesday October 2nd… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
An Early October Heat Wave To Remember (Post Three)
Today in some respects will be the peak of our early October heat wave since we should see the most numbers of records fall across the eastern and southern U.S. in one day this week. Some locations like Atlanta, however won’t see their highest temperatures until Thursday, though.
I have one thought about traditional climatology and weather forecasting in association with this October heat wave for today. The following automatically generated chart incorporates statistically generated numbers based on weather models like the GFS with some seasonal climatology (from MRFMOS):
I’m just shaking my head here. At The Weather Channel prior to about 2014 we primarily used MRFMOS to forecast temperatures going out seven days. Forecast maxes shown on the above chart across the Southeast are about 5 degrees too low! Now the new climate is starting to dictate what the weather forecast should be despite old models. Thankfully, newer temperature guidance from such sources as the European Model have come along since 2014, which doesn’t incorporate as much traditional climatology. Short range temperature forecasts have gotten much better despite rapid changes brought about by climate change. (And yes, services that provide charts such as the one above still need to adapt).
Without further adoo here are more notes from experts on this historic fall heat wave (and record temperatures in general):
Heat records are tumbling across much of the eastern part of the nation! https://t.co/aNwaVM2T0z
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) October 2, 2019
Sweltering #heatwave continues with 70+ record highs possible today and 50+ tomorrow. This comes on the heals of an incredibly warm September with over 20% of the US reporting sites having their warmest September on record! DC may tie or break an all-time record high today of 96. pic.twitter.com/yccMWkqjad
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) October 2, 2019
The record heatwave will drag on into October, with up to 200 million people with highs above average this week. pic.twitter.com/UoXWrEIuoN
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) September 30, 2019
What month is it again? Record-shattering #heatwave continues today across the South, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. In areas around #Atlanta and in the Tennessee Valley are already in the middle 90s. latest Temperatures: https://t.co/J0YCD9BCJT pic.twitter.com/BmStGjMPWE
— WeatherBug (@WeatherBug) October 2, 2019
No, your eyes are not deceiving you, and we almost can't believe it either! High temps near 100 are unheard of in October for Eastern NC.
— NWS Newport/Morehead (@NWSMoreheadCity) October 2, 2019
The record breaking heatwave that is occurring to the west and north of us will peak over the southeast on Thursday. pic.twitter.com/ebn0LCBhUE
Today was one of the hottest October days on record with 93F in Cleveland, Ohio, 90F in Dansville, NY (western NY), 90F in Altoona, Pennsylvania. 101F in Meridian, Mississippi, Montgomery, Alabama. Cold also: high of 27F in Cut Bank, Montana, 39F in Rapid City, South Dakota. pic.twitter.com/n688BSelvA
— Richard Heatwave Berler (@HeatwaveKGNS) October 2, 2019
All-time hottest October day in DC at 98. Record high Central Park in NYC & 2nd hottest October day ever, Salisbury smashed the record of 88- so far at 95f. Wilmington DE at 96 is a new Oct. record there. Over 20% of U.S. reporting sites had warmest Sept. on record!
— Dan Satterfield (@wildweatherdan) October 2, 2019
Astounding. pic.twitter.com/x4AAfRkaZs
Almost half (40%) of all summers in D.C. since 1872 never got as hot – even for just one day – as the city is today (October 2). https://t.co/kKA8yotso3
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) October 2, 2019
September 2019 was abnormally hot and dry. Now that it's over, our climate data sheds good perspective for Tallahassee. Although Oct 1st broke the dry spell, Oct 3-5 will be challenged for record daily high temps. For more info visit our climate page https://t.co/mbW0KOUFwe pic.twitter.com/csauu6mRP0
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) October 2, 2019
Yes, there have been some record cold temperatures set in the Northern Rockies.
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) October 2, 2019
Let's nip this in the bud now: you do not get to use this to "debunk" climate change.
That's like not believing that cats exist because you are a dog owner. It's lunacy.https://t.co/08yYNK0H8R pic.twitter.com/kzc4cUJRR1
Among locations with records since at least 1950, we found 56 locations tied or set new all-time hottest Sept. records.
— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) October 1, 2019
Another 63 locations had their second or third hottest Sept.
11 cities have now had their two hottest Septembers the past two years, including Tampa. https://t.co/95449wLMeq
Great forecast summary put out by this NWS "Talking Head(s)". 😆 https://t.co/xkcfJ4p1TR
— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) September 30, 2019
Today, October 2, it hit 98 degrees in DC, an all-time record. Unfortunately that will become a new normal for fall temps thanks to a rapidly warming climate. https://t.co/fzvR2dqphL #climatematters via @climatecentral @sejorg #climatechange
— Rocky Kistner (@therockyfiles) October 2, 2019
With the all-time monthly October record falling shortly after 1 pm in D.C., broader look reveals more than 130 million are roasting in mid-July heat on October 2 across much of the U.S. https://t.co/Ij56MAZiiF
— Andrew Freedman (@afreedma) October 2, 2019
Updated to reflect today's temps. pic.twitter.com/VKHW6CjOrk
— Mike Bettes (@mikebettes) October 2, 2019
Today's record-setting heat in DC (98 degrees) is not some isolated event. We've already seen events like this increase and will continue to due to climate change. This is the weather of our future, as we've written about repeatedly, e.g. https://t.co/vdaCI1y5Cw
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) October 2, 2019
HEAT WAVE: These cities not only broke daily records yesterday, but broke the record for hottest October day:
— ABC News (@ABC) October 2, 2019
– New Orleans, LA: 95°
– Nashville, TN: 98°
– Indianapolis, IN: 92°
– Huntington, WV: 95°
– Pensacola, FL: 96°
– Mobile, AL: 96°https://t.co/1lTuFKL6X2
If only it were a dry heat… pic.twitter.com/9ob5aLrm3b
— Stacey Anders (@anders_stacey) October 2, 2019
Augusta, GA has had record temperatures on 6 out of the last 7 days. pic.twitter.com/VrejZ40LB8
— NWS Columbia (@NWSColumbia) October 2, 2019
Journalists! Covering the current Heat Wave? Get the latest science on the linkages between extreme heat & #ClimateChange in clear concise language with references in this "Quick Facts for Any Story" that I produced with @RealSciLine. Connect the dots! https://t.co/YdpVoKceJr
— Susan Hassol, Climate Communication (@ClimateComms) October 2, 2019
This is the weather of our PRESENT.
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 2, 2019
We haven't yet seen the weather of our future.
Hollywood has provided us a few glimpses of the possible dystopia we will inherit if we fail to act now on climate. https://t.co/cw3c6u0EbF
Here are some “ET” statements from Tuesday 10/1 and Wednesday, 10/2/2019.
(This list will get very long as we move through Wednesday):
More than 50 high temperature records were broken or tied across the Eastern US on Wednesday October 2nd. 20 of these locations also broke or tied their record for the warmest temperature for the entire month of October. pic.twitter.com/ofqYeYkwCK
— NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) October 2, 2019
This is all just nuts:
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) October 2, 2019
* DC's high so far is 98, new Oct heat record by 2F. 40% of YEARS in DC since 1872 never got so hot.
* DC's avg high for Oct 2? 73
* Baltimore hit 98, new Oct record
* Dulles hit 94, tied Oct record
But it fits a pattern…
More: https://t.co/XsvsM3D1j5 pic.twitter.com/FQH7K9MLSA
Well, here we go again. At 11 a.m., the temperature at Nashville is 92°. This breaks the old record high for this date, which was 91° in 1953. The temperature has jumped 22° in just the last 3 hours.
— NWS Nashville (@NWSNashville) October 2, 2019
The record high has been broken at New Orleans International Airport. Old record of 92 degrees set in 1952. High temperature so far today has hit 94 degrees. #Augtober #lawx #mswx
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) October 2, 2019
We have tied the record high w/ 96 degrees in #Shreveport #lawx so far today as of 2 pm. #DayNotDone #ComeOnColdFront
— NWS Shreveport (@NWSShreveport) October 2, 2019
The temperature at Atlanta reached 96°F at 301PM today (and may continue to rise). This will set an all time high for the day and break the all time highest temperature for the month of October. The previous all time record was set in 1954 on the 5th and 6th at 95°F. #gawx
— NWS Atlanta (@NWSAtlanta) October 2, 2019
Nashville. https://t.co/8BFAj2EOeN
— Sean Sublette (@SeanSublette) October 2, 2019
We SHATTERED the record high of 93° in Birmingham today set back in 1904. Check out Tuscaloosa reporting 100°!! We are talking about the long anticipated PATTERN CHANGE on ABC 33/40 News starting at 4pm. #alwx pic.twitter.com/MQuGOmAdNW
— Taylor Sarallo (@TaylorSarallo) October 2, 2019
Every one of our climate sites either set or tied their daily record highs for today. Additionally, several sites set new all-time record highs for the month of October.
— NWS Jackson MS (@NWSJacksonMS) October 2, 2019
Good news though – a cold front is expected to move through the area on Monday bringing a nice cool down! pic.twitter.com/mUOWX4tnhc
The high temperature at FAY (Fayetteville Reg'l Airport) so far today is 96 degrees, which breaks the previous daily record of 93 degrees (1986) and is five degrees shy of the all-time October record of 101 degrees (Oct 7 1954).
— NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) October 2, 2019
The high temperature at RDU (Raleigh-Durham Int'l Airport) so far today is 96 degrees, which breaks the previous daily record of 91 degrees (1986) and is two degrees shy of the all-time October record of 98 degrees (Oct 6 1954).
— NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) October 2, 2019
The high temperature at GSO (Piedmont Triad Int'l Airport) so far today is 94 degrees, which breaks the previous daily record of 91 degrees (1986) and is one degree shy of the all-time October record of 95 degrees (Oct 5 1954).
— NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) October 2, 2019
CLT has broke the the all-time October record high reaching 99 degrees at 3:37 PM this afternoon. The record of 98 degrees was set in 1954. #cltwx #ncwx
— NWS GSP (@NWSGSP) October 2, 2019
AVL tied the the all-time October record at 3:14 PM this afternoon of 90 degrees set in 1941. #ncwx #avlwx
— NWS GSP (@NWSGSP) October 2, 2019
GSP tied the the all-time October record at 2:55 PM this afternoon of 97 degrees set in 1954. #scwx
— NWS GSP (@NWSGSP) October 2, 2019
Today's high temperatures:
— NWS Morristown (@NWSMorristown) October 2, 2019
Chattanooga – 100 degrees
Knoxville – 96 degrees
For both locations, these are the hottest temperatures on record for October.
Tri-Cities reached 93 degrees, tying the record for the hottest day in October, which was also set yesterday.
Yesterday, Knoxville, TN, set an all-time high for October of 95°F
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) October 2, 2019
Today, Knoxville hit 96°F.
Weather observations at Knoxville go back 148 years. https://t.co/QDMknIayla
🌡️🔥 MORE RECORD HEAT 🔥🌡️
— NWS Huntsville (@NWSHuntsville) October 2, 2019
All-time record warmth has been recorded at Muscle Shoals and Huntsville Intl' Airports. High temps at both spots reached 100 degrees. This breaks the old records of 93 in Muscle Shoals in 1903, and 94 in Huntsville in 1910 and 1926, #HUNwx pic.twitter.com/BsXciqpUbc
Wednesday, October 2nd Climate Update:
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) October 2, 2019
Today's temperatures soared to record levels. Temperatures were approximately 20 to 25 degrees above normal with respect to today's afternoon highs. pic.twitter.com/pXhlaotVw5
Additional Facts:
— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) October 2, 2019
Newark, NJ saw it's warmest October temperature ever recorded by reaching 96 degrees earlier today. The previous warmest October temperature ever recorded at Newark was 93 back on October 5, 1941.
Daily records and three monthly records were set today. For the summary on all the records set in our area, visit: https://t.co/kPZSf8qkj2 #pawx #njwx #dewx #mdwx
— NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) October 2, 2019
Brrrrr! At 5 AM the low temperature in #Kalispell at @IFLYGLACIER reached 19°F which will break the previous record low of 21°F set in 1999. It may still get even colder yet this AM!
— NWS Missoula (@NWSMissoula) October 2, 2019
A Record Event Report will be sent out later today confirming the lowest temperature.#MTwx
As of 6am the Great Falls Airport has reached 9 degrees, which has crushed the previous record of 22 degrees for October 1st set back in 1959. #mtwx
— NWS Great Falls (@NWSGreatFalls) October 1, 2019
Can't keep up w/ MONTHLY (October) record highs today:
— Jesse Ferrell (@WeatherMatrix) October 1, 2019
Muscle Shoals 99
Evansville 94*
Springfield 91*
Tallahassee 95*
New Orleans 95
Blacksburg 90
Cape Girardeau 94
Paducah 95*
Crossville 91
Chattanooga 97
Knoxville 95
Tri-Cities 93
Dayton 94
Cincinnati 92
+ pic.twitter.com/UdYvG09bIQ
Here is more climate and weather news from Wednesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article.)
"Climate change isn’t a debate. It’s already here, whether deniers like it or not" | My new op-ed in the Lexington @HeraldLeader: https://t.co/s4CZ0e2opG
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 3, 2019
ECMWF continues to show Lorenzo remaining an intense system as it turns extratropical, bringing 60+ mph gusts to the west coast of Ireland Thu afternoon and evening, then hurricane force (75-95 mph) gusts Thu night. pic.twitter.com/kF8pRTHAMO
— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) October 2, 2019
Lorenzo’s final act: Hurricane-force storm targets Ireland, United Kingdom https://t.co/r1KuX1EYdL
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 2, 2019
Wind gusts above 100 mph raked the Azores as #Lorenzo blew through. Now a post-tropical cyclone, Lorenzo is racing toward Ireland. https://t.co/4P7Yvy8x1F pic.twitter.com/lV7bMXIWbq
— Weather Underground (@wunderground) October 2, 2019
#Lorenzo — from the tropics through its intensification into a Category 5 #hurricane unusually far east/north, past the Azores to its extratropical transition and acceleration toward Europe pic.twitter.com/X2zAYe2K00
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) October 2, 2019
The world as a whole has warmed by 0.9C just since 1960, with some parts of the Arctic warming by more than 4C. Here is a map of warming between January 1960 and August 2019: pic.twitter.com/npJrw5TIeb
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) October 2, 2019
“It’s a race against time”
— Green News Report (@GreenNewsReport) October 2, 2019
“Harris County has now suffered one 500-year rainfall event and two 100-year events since 2016”
“We just obviously didn’t anticipate that you would have something pretty close to a Harvey two years later”#ClimateAction https://t.co/csZmsXnF1s
#WednesdayMorning Reading #Health + #Environment: “Studies show that breathing air containing elevated ethylene oxide levels over many years increases the risk of some types of cancers.” Is it time to crack down on ethylene oxide? https://t.co/Bs8bBzeMFP via @cenmag
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) October 2, 2019
#WednesdayMorning Reading – #PriceonPollution: The recent #IPCC Report expressed grave concerns about the health of our #oceans. Now, this report: Thousands of ships fitted with ‘cheat devices’ to divert poisonous pollution into sea https://t.co/TukDlAVXsP
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) October 2, 2019
On Nov. 20-21, the world is coming together to talk about the climate crisis with @ClimateReality's 24 Hours of Reality: Truth in Action. Find out what the climate crisis means for you and what you can do to fight back today: https://t.co/g4DHKv9cxL #TruthIntoAction pic.twitter.com/iQti4YEfNu
— Climate Reality (@ClimateReality) October 2, 2019
It's 2019, rainforests are burning, country towns are running out of water & @RobStokesMP is consulting the Minerals Council, but not the public, to wind back a 12-yr-old law requiring the climate change contribution of coal mines in NSW to be considered https://t.co/cda4yzL7va
— Georgina Woods (@georgefwoods) October 1, 2019
Humans Release 40 to 100x More CO2 Than Volcanoes, Major Study Reveals https://t.co/EX78P5rQxb #ClimateCrisis
— Earth Accounting (@EarthAccounting) October 2, 2019
“ Severe heat waves have already killed many thousands of people over the past decade, but what is less recognised is that rising temperatures are also, slowly but surely, bringing more dangerous heat stress into our daily lives.” https://t.co/vY9AJo9oYL
— Caribbean disaster (@BagalueSunab) October 2, 2019
"(UBS) now expects the number of flights in the EU will increase by just 1.5% per year, which is half the rate expected by planemaker Airbus. The bank forecasted that growth in US flights would fall from the 2.1% expected to just 1.3%." #FlyingLess https://t.co/cF4V1E1GzG
— Aarne Granlund (@AarneGranlund) October 2, 2019
What #ClimateChange looks like for people in India:
— Greenpeace UK (@GreenpeaceUK) October 2, 2019
A debilitating summer heatwave 🌡️ followed by the heaviest monsoon rains in 25 years.
The flooding has killed hundreds. https://t.co/clDefj8fQk
This is a #ClimateEmergency
Extinction Rebellion Gambia. pic.twitter.com/PUaWMulD0I
— Extinction Symbol (@extinctsymbol) October 2, 2019
#WednesdayAfternoon Reading #PriceonPollution: “The critical insight is that the benefits of #emissions reductions are massively influenced by avoiding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes…" On Reflection Now: About that #CarbonPrice https://t.co/fUW7FIo0Jz via @EARTH3R
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) October 2, 2019
Wasn't expecting this…
— Stuart Capstick 🌡️🌏 (@StuartBCapstick) October 2, 2019
Ex-police chiefs to join Extinction Rebellion activists in biggest protest yet https://t.co/ggYR8II3g3
.@GErenewables long game with the Haliade-X is bearing fruit https://t.co/8Bj5yCmEzv
— Greentech Media (@greentechmedia) October 2, 2019
This Friday I’m happy to say that I’ll join the climate strike in Iowa City! #FridaysForFuture #ClimateStrike #schoolstrike4climate https://t.co/BZwpgFLlqO
— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) October 2, 2019
The weather outlooks for temperatures & precipitation in October have been released for the Inland Northwest and it might not be what you want to hear if you crave a dry and very warm month. #wawx #idwx pic.twitter.com/JnsOeFs8Pi
— NWS Spokane (@NWSSpokane) October 1, 2019
Ever wonder why meteorologists take a lot of math? https://t.co/yOKpihQCj5 pic.twitter.com/dn3W0xCnpk
— Forbes Science (@ForbesScience) October 2, 2019
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Guy Walton- “The Climate Guy”