Sunday October 4th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Delta Dawns As A Big Threat To The Central Gulf Coast
Dear Diary. The curse of 2020 continues. On top of COVID19 and climate change related wildfires across the West, we have a new threat this week in the form of a tropical system that will soon be a powerful hurricane, threatening the central Gulf coastal area, which has already been hit hard by two systems this season:
Call it the Greek black widow scenario. Well, today's models are scary but interesting. #Gamma moistens up the Gulf coastal area, then #Delta swallows #Gamma and eats New Orleans for the main course via Sunday's HWRF. Oh…and it is Halloween month.😉 pic.twitter.com/HVvD2oauTE
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) October 4, 2020
Seriously, after seeing model consistency, it is now likely that the cent. Gulf coastal area will tangle with a hurricane for the third time this season. A chicken or egg question…Would #Delta be possible in a colder climate in early October with cooler Gulf SST's? I think not. pic.twitter.com/CgQqvxIWLW
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) October 5, 2020
We have seen plenty of October hurricanes in the past, though. Opal comes to mind from the 1990s, as sell as Michael from 2018. Delta was named overnight and is expected to rapidly intensify as it approaches the Straight of Juan De Fuca between the Yucatan and Cuba the next couple of days.
Today I will be listing items in association with Delta below. The most recent items, which I will be updating frequently, will be at the top of this list:
Oh my! A direct hit on #Cancun by CAT5 #Delta Wednesday morning forecast by the 00Z TUE HWRF. If correct, it doesn't get much worse than this in the #Caribbean. @EKMeteo @MichaelEMann @bhensonweather @TomMoorewx pic.twitter.com/0d1M2UPzZe
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) October 6, 2020
Delta went from a tropical depression to a hurricane in just 18 hours. This is very impressive for the Atlantic basin climatologically. pic.twitter.com/0DwZAWzNDS
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) October 6, 2020
My quick update as of Monday evening in @ForbesScience on #HurricaneDelta, mentions @JackSillin It is strengthening rapidly and headed to the U.S. Gulf Coast still recovering from Sally and Laura. https://t.co/4hDL6zA8r7
— Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013) October 6, 2020
#Delta become a hurricane, the 9th one of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Visit https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb for more information. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. pic.twitter.com/MSN7jwSu72
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 5, 2020
The HWRF model has a spectacular presentation of a Category 5 Hurricane Delta.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 6, 2020
The official forecast is 105-knots maximum (CAT 3) but few meteorologists would be surprised to see a more intense storm over the very warm waters of Southern Gulf of Mexico. pic.twitter.com/ldoIPEsEuv
Monday's 18Z HWRF is forecasting a major #hurricanedelta
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) October 6, 2020
approaching the central Gulf Coast on Friday. This is the real deal folks. We will be trying to pinpoint an exact path the next couple of days. pic.twitter.com/WobHfHlcnh
Meteorologists often refer to the very strongest of hurricanes as "buzzsaws" in a reference to their circular structure.
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
Seeing high-resolution model guidance depicting that structure for #Delta near land Tue-Wed, especially when the environment supports it, is quite concerning. pic.twitter.com/NQ2V92sbcv
With all the splitting of hairs about where #Delta is headed along the Gulf Coast, it's definitely important to remember that the storm will first impact the #Yucatan Peninsula and may make a direct hit on #Cancun as a powerful major hurricane. https://t.co/vxbqZZY0Ds
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
An earlier microwave pass showed a small banding eye with #Delta as extremely cold convection in excess of -88C wrapped around the center. Significant intensification is quite likely as we head into the evening and overnight hours. pic.twitter.com/IIE66Rhj8j
— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) October 5, 2020
Cloud top temperatures in the latest convective burst over #Delta are pushing -85C.
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
This is about as cold as cloud tops can get anywhere in the world, and is especially impressive for a tropical cyclone "hot tower".
All systems go for continued rapid intensification. pic.twitter.com/UbmHoFmn8E
Serious gravity wave action in this latest convective burst just east of #Delta's center.
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
Gravity waves occur when air rises so fast it "overshoots" the lowest layer of the atmosphere where most weather happens.
Thus gravity waves are one sign of intense upward motion. pic.twitter.com/HAq05PC9nC
Seems like a good moment to re-up this tweet from back during Sally (feels like years ago doesn't it) that explains why tropical cyclone convection is suppressed (slightly) during the afternoon and enhanced (slightly) overnight.
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
We're seeing a similar process unfold w/#Delta now https://t.co/SIfpN0apIV
Aaaaand #Delta joins the list of storms that have officially rapidly intensified this year. That didn’t take long. Confirmed by @JackSillin https://t.co/y11TU8PJnC
— Kathryn Prociv (@KathrynProciv) October 5, 2020
Satellite trends suggest that #Delta continues to intensify, possibly rapidly, with a partial eyewall now evident. It's hard to tell exactly how strong the storm is at this moment, but a recon aircraft has just taken off from Lakeland, FL to go find out. pic.twitter.com/2CD38OprVA
— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 5, 2020
Latest Vortex Data Message from the Hurricane Hunters indicates that #Delta now has a CLOSED circular eye that is 18mi in diameter.
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
Bombs away for continued RI pic.twitter.com/dcGICm5t3x
Wow the SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high for #Delta– these are the kinds of figures you only see a few times a year in the Atlantic basin. The probability for a 40 kt change in 24h is 22x an average situation 😳 pic.twitter.com/t86xKmbrwJ
— Eric Blake 🌀 (@EricBlake12) October 5, 2020
There's no doubt about the favored region for rapid intensification in October. And Delta is tracking right across this climatological hot spot. pic.twitter.com/1rb7VeiqMu
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) October 5, 2020
Dr. Jeff Masters weighs on in newborn TS Delta, which is expected to approach the central Gulf Coast as a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane late this week. It may intensify rapidly while over the NW Caribbean. @CC_Yale #EOTShttps://t.co/dnmBM5zvHL
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) October 5, 2020
Microwave imagery from polar-orbiting satellites lets us peek beneath the clouds we see on traditional geostationary satellite imagery.
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) October 5, 2020
This gives valuable insights into a storm's structure.
This morning, #Delta seems to be working on an eye and has several robust inner bands. pic.twitter.com/XOixPEqSPy
Impressive clustering seen in models for the New Orleans region to be the location where #PTC #Delta will landfall. There's some time here to watch this as we know our models can struggle with these types of predictions. Underdispersivity is a thing. pic.twitter.com/YbhQll4N1s
— MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) October 4, 2020
2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season keeping with the tradition of churning up storms in groups. We now have TS Delta in the Caribbean: the 25th named storm of the year … just 3 shy of the year-total record of 28 set in 2005.
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) October 5, 2020
On this date, 2005 had 20 storms. pic.twitter.com/jwNweWelDm
And now we have a hurricane watch for far western Cuba while TD 26 (formerly PTC 26) is still a depression…which is itself quite unusual. https://t.co/wBWc7VSkQL https://t.co/eaAB2pAiDw
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) October 5, 2020
Tropical Storm #Gamma will be writing its name over the Gulf of Mexico. The predicted track of #Gamma actually looks like the Greek alphabet version of "Gamma". The things you see in 2020…
— MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) October 5, 2020
Thanks to @kendixonWX for pointing this out on an internal server! pic.twitter.com/B77MHzELmF
Here are more items from California’s dire fire and Heatwave Desdemona situation below. The most recent items, which I will be updating frequently, will be at the top of this list:
“There’s no slam dunk or silver bullet solution,” McCann @PPICWater said. “It’s an all-of-the-above type moment.” California can fix its wildfire crisis – if politics don't get in the way https://t.co/DBughR2M8p
— Susie Kocher (@UCsierraforest) October 5, 2020
— Terrence Daniels (Captain 🍀 Planet) (@Terrence_STR) October 5, 2020
Not to alarm anyone but California now has its first 1 million acre fire in modern history https://t.co/hdksq0kLIX
— Brian Kahn (@blkahn) October 5, 2020
Good news. #Heatwave #Desdemona will ramp down to CAT1 levels across California on TUE since a gradually strengthening marine later will aid firefighters. Expect some record heat in Arizona, though. #NameTheWave pic.twitter.com/igcqa45Tzx
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) October 5, 2020
Quite striking to see just how much area has burned across the Western U.S. this year. Even more incredible to see how much of California's North Bay region has burned since 2017.
— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) October 5, 2020
FYI: Fires do not stop at international borders. This graphic only shows U.S. fire perimeters. pic.twitter.com/yXjUwyOfTF
#AugustComplex, burning across five counties in northern Coast Ranges, has become California's first modern "#megafire." This complex of individual fires, which have burned together into contiguous burn area, now spans 1 million acres–larger than state of Rhode Island. #CAfire pic.twitter.com/M1LzyqMR3I
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) October 5, 2020
#Heatwave #Desdemona remains at the CAT2 level across California on MON, with most locals remaining below record levels, but afternoon heat will remain dangerous in interior locations. Conditions will remain mostly bad for fighting wildfires, though, into this week. #NameTheWave pic.twitter.com/YHpVbgxxog
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) October 4, 2020
About a month ago, on Sept. 6, Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo hit 120 degrees & Solvang 121°. After extensive research of the climate summaries, these may have been the hottest temps ever recorded so close to the Atlantic or the Pacific Oceans in North, Central, or South America. pic.twitter.com/IucoSdSmY8
— John Lindsey (@PGE_John) October 5, 2020
Here are more western “ET’s” and a report indicating that portions of Middle East are very hot:
The high temperature today at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport was 105°, which breaks the record of 104°, last set in 1987. #azwx
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) October 5, 2020
The temperature in Helena, MT, soared to 84 F on Sunday, which is 20 degrees above average. This set a new daily record for the date, breaking the previous mark of 82 F from 1970: https://t.co/ljr2n8uq2k pic.twitter.com/rTYP1Fi0Mb
— AccuWeather (@breakingweather) October 5, 2020
Eastern Europe/Middle East Heat Wave 5 October:Temperatures up to 38.7C in Turkey, 38.3C in Greece, 36.7C in Cyprus,33.6C in Romania, 33.4C in Albania, 32.8C in Bulgaria, 32.6C in North Macedonia and 31.8C in Serbia. Many monthly records fell, specially in Turkey. @EKMeteo
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 5, 2020
Here is more climate and weather news from Monday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Storm Alex causes severe damage in France https://t.co/vWKj2LFWb6
— Dr. Oula Amrouni د.عُلا العمروني (@OulaAmrouni) October 4, 2020
Dozens of homes razed in New Zealand bushfires
— Caribbean disaster (@BagalueSunab) October 5, 2020
At least 4,600 hectares of land were affected by the blaze, which displaced more than 100 people from one village in South Island.https://t.co/5yhPWVAjp2 via @AJEnglish
@MichaelEMann – you are my hero. I cannot thank you enough for doing all that you do to educate the world. 🎉🤗🤓 https://t.co/wSFtnyCI1d
— Darin Layman (@darinlayman) October 5, 2020
@MichaelEMann Inspires #ClimateActionNow Please go to @60Minutes on line , watch, save and share. Interview asks what one would say viewing 50 yrs from now. Lets answer that question daily by sharing now and future. https://t.co/VPQNdENwus
— @PeterBakerBooks @EarthsCallBooks (@BakerLackey) October 5, 2020
The Trump administration has responded to California’s plan to ban new gasoline cars, saying it "raises serious questions regarding its legality and practicality." Gov. Gavin Newsom had a response to that. The latest Inside Clean Energy:https://t.co/RGIIomO3ON
— InsideClimate News (@insideclimate) October 5, 2020
@climateguyw Obtw … Welcome to the Pliocene II
— Jake Reyna (@iJakeReyna) October 5, 2020
"Exxon’s own assessment of its $210 billion investment strategy shows yearly emissions rising 17% by 2025"https://t.co/ASf9zdorJK
*that should read '1.7-2.1°C'
— Ben See (@ClimateBen) October 4, 2020
We're at 1.15°C today using an 1850 baseline (using a 1750 baseline, more like 1.3/1.4°C).
Scientists seem to agree (informally) we'll hit 1.5C (1850) by 2030 with 1.65C by 2035 then likely, but 2C by 2030 35 is possible.https://t.co/TAgc48FWkv
Pakistan hit by food price shocks due to extreme weather-
— Jim Baird (@JimBair62221006) October 4, 2020
"Food inflation surged almost 13% in August as crops in several areas have been destroyed due to heavy rains, pest attacks and locust invasions. "#foodsecurity #agriculture #ClimateActionNowhttps://t.co/aJzvpRghs9
Always deregulation, every. single. time.
— cynthia w Nelson (@cindian1) October 5, 2020
Fed officials have told the group that farms must meet strict req's to qualify their crops, such as growing them at least 30 metres from #waterways & on land that has not been significantly cleared of trees.https://t.co/8XGepYmErH
Shell must clean up its toxic mess in the North Sea : around 640,000 m³ of oil-contaminated water and 40,000 m³ of oil-contaminated sediment, containing more than 11,000 tonnes of crude oil in the Brent Field Gravity Based Structures. #StopShell https://t.co/jkDYUKSzE2
— Florent Mimart (@Florent_Mimart) October 4, 2020
A mammoth task: The Russian family tackling the climate crisis the prehistoric way – @independent via @inkl https://t.co/BRhiYImoIJ
— Svein T veitdal (@tveitdal) October 4, 2020
Denver wants to fix its legacy of environmental racism. https://t.co/9N3kF1D7y2
— Defend Our Future | #FightClimateInjustice 🌎✊🏿✊ (@DefendOurFuture) October 5, 2020
If you are in need of some hopeful news, check out this story about how Copenhagen’s 'climate park' acts as flood infrastructure for runoff from extreme rains. The water then gets stored for use during drought. That’s adaptation at work! https://t.co/aft9gi3FNo
— Alice Hill (@Alice_C_Hill) October 4, 2020
Must read article by @MaryHeglar about how "we live today in the age of crisis conglomeration" and how crucial it is for us all to see the connection of our struggles. https://t.co/yfdu4DHdfz
— 350 dot org (@350) October 4, 2020
The Guardian view on houseplants: balm for troubled times
— Svein T veitdal (@tveitdal) October 4, 2020
Pandemic stress can be relieved by cultivating greenery, which makes people happier and more relaxed https://t.co/qAmc7HMQV3
Mountain butterflies 'will have to be relocated as habitats get too hot'
— Svein T veitdal (@tveitdal) October 4, 2020
Populations of mountain ringlet in Lake District face being wiped out as cooler habitats disappear https://t.co/UGVoLTS5f3
Tropical Depression #16W is now Tropical Storm #Chanhom. It is the 13th named tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific basin this 2020.
— Matthew S. Cuyugan (@MatthewSCuyugan) October 5, 2020
The storm now has a little chance to enter the PAR, based on JMA's forecast analysis. Subject to change. pic.twitter.com/Qay0vL0Ozz
My GOODNESS Alberta!
— Kyle Brittain (@KyleTWN) October 4, 2020
I don't recall a stretch in history where the Rockies were so photogenic for so many days!#ShareYourWeather pic.twitter.com/LzqX9AqvVD
'Human-sized' spider web found in Missouri forest https://t.co/gRXBdIiZZY
— The Independent (@Independent) October 5, 2020
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
Trump's doctor walks backs comments on timing of President's Covid-19 diagnosis and treatment https://t.co/OUqJNKmXOP
— Jeffrey Levin (@jilevin) October 5, 2020
Here are 5 takeaways from Sunday’s update on Donald Trump's COVID-19 health, treatments and more. https://t.co/5uQh2rYcAs
— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) October 5, 2020
US states see record rise in COVID cases as cold weather arrives https://t.co/11bBi4tnZO
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 5, 2020
Donald Trump and Covid: what we know so far https://t.co/2B5kSzVUez
— The Guardian (@guardian) October 5, 2020
Donald Trump did not disclose a positive result from a rapid test for Covid-19 on Thursday https://t.co/7956mnd22n
— The Independent (@Independent) October 5, 2020
Poll: 9 in 10 Republicans say Trump handled diagnosis correctly https://t.co/FCN41xH0hw pic.twitter.com/yVm5MoHuL1
— The Hill (@thehill) October 5, 2020
Coronavirus: Trump's health, Paris bars, and test and trace glitch https://t.co/5eyi53dFPn
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) October 5, 2020
I continue to be amazed, even four years into this, at not just Trump's pathological narcissism but the way those around him (doctors, staffers) continually indulge it, even when it means putting others and himself at greater risk. https://t.co/z9kXfDACWt
— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) October 4, 2020
It comes as a further 22,961 lab-confirmed cases of the #coronavirus were recorded in the UK, taking the total number to more than 500,000 since the outbreak began https://t.co/CaY1Jrxwj9
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) October 5, 2020
Rishi Sunak insists Eat Out scheme did not fuel coronavirus spike https://t.co/3D2CuBr5hg
— The Sun (@TheSun) October 5, 2020
Coronavirus: Cineworld suspends UK, US cinemas and seeks new funding https://t.co/bpWNrTHqDH
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) October 5, 2020
Why the missing 15,841 COVID-19 cases will affect everyone https://t.co/guxQON9mxN
— Sky News Tech (@SkyNewsTech) October 5, 2020
(If you like these posts and my work please contribute via the PayPal widget, which has recently been added to this site. Thanks in advance for any support.)
Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”