The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials)😉
Main Topic: The Northeast Braces For Henri
Dear Diary. The good news this morning is that Henri remains disorganized looking on satellite loops as it makes its way northward off the East Coast, despite a slight central pressure drop. The bad news is that the system will most certainly produce headaches from New York City through New England on Sunday, with a landfall most likely on Long Island. Henri will probably make landfall as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, but effects early next week will be widespread. Flooding and power outages will be more than just a nuisance as the system crawls northward early next week.
We will be watching to see if Henri truly becomes historic in nature. If the system were to produce enough damage in the Northeast the name Henri would be retired. Certainly stronger storms like the Long Island Express in 1938 have affected the Northeast, so Henri is not unprecedented. Should the system not explode of anonymously warm Atlantic waters we cannot make a climate change link. We probably are looking at another system similar to Hurricane Bob in 2011 but much weaker. Here is a little more from Wikipedia on that system:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bob
Hurricane Bob was one of the costliest hurricanes in New England history. The second named storm and first hurricane of the 1991 Atlantic hurricane season, Bob developed from an area of low pressure near The Bahamas on August 16. The depression steadily intensified, and became Tropical Storm Bob late on August 16. Bob curved north-northwestward as a tropical storm, but re-curved to the north-northeast after becoming a hurricane on August 17. As such, it brushed the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 18 and August 19, and subsequently intensified into a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir–Simpson scale). After peaking in intensity with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h), Bob weakened slightly as it approached the coast of New England.
Bob made landfall twice in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane on August 19, first on Block Island and then in Newport. Upon doing so, it became the only hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States during the 1991 season. Moving further inland, Bob rapidly weakened, and deteriorated to a tropical storm while emerging into the Gulf of Maine. Shortly thereafter, Bob made landfall in Maine as a strong tropical storm early on August 20. Bob entered the Canadian province of New Brunswick a few hours later, where it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. By August 21, the remnants of Bob crossed Newfoundland and re-emerged into the open Atlantic Ocean. The remnants traveled a long distance across the northern Atlantic Ocean, and finally dissipated west of Portugal on August 29.
Bob left extensive damage throughout New England in its wake, totaling approximately $1.5 billion (1991 USD, $2.85 billion 2021 USD). This made it one of the costliest United States hurricanes at the time; as of 2013, it ranked thirty-second in the category. But some sources say that Bob might have caused as much as $3 billion (1991 USD, $5.7 billion 2021 USD) in damage.[1][2] In addition, eighteen fatalities were reported in association with Bob.[3][4] The loss of life and most of the damage occurred as a result of high winds and rough seas. There were six confirmed tornadoes during its passage. Bob is the most recent hurricane to hit the New England states directly as a hurricane.[5]
| Hurricane Bob approaching New England near peak intensity on August 19 | |
| Formed | August 16, 1991 |
|---|---|
| Dissipated | August 29, 1991 |
| (Extratropical after August 20) | |
| Highest winds | 1-minute sustained: 115 mph (185 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 950 mbar (hPa); 28.05 inHg |
| Fatalities | 15 direct, 2 indirect |
| Damage | $1.5 billion (1991 USD) |
| Areas affected | North Carolina, Mid-Atlantic states, New England, Atlantic Canada, and Iberian Peninsula |
| Part of the 1991 Atlantic hurricane season |
As of this writing Henri was just upgraded to hurricane status with a central pressure of 991 millibars. Models at most have Henri dropping down to 970 millibars, and I seriously doubt that the system will get that strong. Therefore, Henri won’t measure up too well to the 950 millibar behemoth that was CAT3 Bob 30 years ago. This is not to write that there will not be serious effects, though.
One note:
Today I’ll be posting forecast notes on Henri in the space below (The latest and most important items will be at the top of this list, which I will be updating frequently as the day progresses):
Here are some “ET” reports from the last couple of days:
Here is more climate and weather news from Saturday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”