The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials). 😉
Main Topic: Another Anomalous Midwest Tornado Outbreak Forecast for Today
Dar Diary. Just as I feared a few days ago, we will probably see some severe storms in association with a well-advertised, historic warm wave that is currently increasing ahead of a rapidly developing front in the northern Plains. There has never been a tornado as far north as Minnesota occurring during the month of December, but meteorological ingredients nay fine together enough to see one. Today will be historically brutal:
A major weather system is strengthening today as it tracks from the western to central U.S. Wind is the major story, with nearly half the states having an NWS wind headline (many Warnings for 60+ mph gusts). This is combined with snow/blowing snow in some locales too. #ILwx #INwx pic.twitter.com/OKylA65AjK
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) December 15, 2021
The Storm Prediction Center has issued another moderate outlook, which looks very similar to the one centered over Kentucky in association with their historic, awful outbreak:
Another historical weather day is forecast today with 2 never-before-seen outlooks issued:
— National Weather Service (@NWS) December 15, 2021
1) First Moderate Risk area in the IA/MN/WI region during the month of December in @NWSSPC history. pic.twitter.com/CMBJSsB2NP
Nothing to see here, just tornadoes possible where's still snow on the ground. pic.twitter.com/DjpXJmly4n
— Jessica Arnoldy (@JessicaArnoldy) December 15, 2021
The severe weather event likely to unfold in the Midwest/Upper Midwest today is simply unheard of for this time of year. Anomalous warmth surging northward, with monthly high temperature records threatened, is a key reason why. https://t.co/BVqvrag0jL
— Andrew Freedman (@afreedma) December 15, 2021
Storms here could be moving EXTREMELY fast, up to 80 mph at times, and contain wind gusts of 80-100 mph. Tornadoes are also possible, including a few stronger ones.
— National Weather Service (@NWS) December 15, 2021
All of this will likely be occuring AFTER DARK so make your preparations now and follow severe weather alerts. pic.twitter.com/sux1ruOSQT
I pray that we won’t get F3 or worse wedge tornadoes out of this, similar to what occurred in the Quad State area, but these are not likely, thankfully.
Here are what some experts are saying about the dynamics in association with this dire forecast:
These storms – and embedded tornadoes – will additionally be moving quite fast, with storm motion over 70 mph. This will be compounded by storms occurring at dark.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) December 15, 2021
Add a lack of December tornado history in MN and this makes for a concerning situation.https://t.co/M66ziPkQzy
Glancing at the HRRR, it stuck out to me how the convective mode with tonight's squall line/potential derecho in the Upper Midwest is depicted as evolving from linear in the south to more discrete in the north.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) December 15, 2021
I did a quick illustration to highlight this: pic.twitter.com/uGFtCSDThh
Accordingly, this helps us visualize why SPC highlighted northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota for a rare December 10% hatched tornado risk.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) December 15, 2021
This region will have more directional shear & curved hodographs than farther south, plus cold front oriented normal to the shear vector. pic.twitter.com/ewzZ4ssbjS
A strong southwesterly LLJ in this region typically aids in transporting moisture from lower to higher latitudes.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) December 14, 2021
Owing to the unusually strong LLJ, the integrated vapor transport (IVT) here, and subsequent precipitable water (PW) content, are both above climatological bounds: pic.twitter.com/mmFxVg71xO
All of this leads us to an unusually mild & humid airmass in IA/southern MN, with an unusually strong LLJ resulting in strong low level wind shear as evidenced by the hodograph.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) December 14, 2021
Despite the time of year – and time of day – this setup favors a fast-moving line of severe storms. pic.twitter.com/rtLWmQFr5B
Pretty anomalous severe setup today
— Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon) December 15, 2021
Even weak showers may generate severe wind via downward momentum transfer. May mimic "cold core" setup with arc of semi-discrete (mini?)supercells in shear-perpendicular regime up north. Sig. tornadoes psbl here, which could be long-tracked. pic.twitter.com/4agGlr3iyt
At first glance, torgen may be a bit finnicky thanks to fairly low low-level streamwiseness, but vorticity along the front will be plentiful.
— Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon) December 15, 2021
Analogs few and far between; 11/11/15 in IA perhaps a good solution, with a hint of 5/21/19 possible if "cold core" regime stays discrete
imo convective mode may depend a lot on RH / buoyancy at time of CI. NAM brings in higher sfc dews to E NE, and cooler air off the deck. HRRR's higher LCLs, and/or very dry mid-levels, could start a cold-pool-driven QLCS earlier. This would mitigate a NAM3k-style discrete event. pic.twitter.com/y9xiqXkPjt
— Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon) December 15, 2021
And then there is a chance of large wildfires along with damaging winds well south of the severe area:
Already:
107mph…that will get your attention https://t.co/FX0viUKS17
— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) December 15, 2021
Dangerous and unprecedented Severe (Moderate Risk 4/5) and Fire Weather conditions are expected today across portions of the CONUS. A fast moving storm system will produce multiple weather hazards through tonight. Stay weather aware and visit https://t.co/QMmU4tBZDt for more info pic.twitter.com/6PBFM83uJh
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) December 15, 2021
Never before has the @NWSSPC issued an extremely critical fire weather outlook (pink area) for the southern/central Plains in December.
— Oklahoma Mesonet (@okmesonet) December 15, 2021
Below are some great wildfire safety tips from our partners at @NWSNorman. #okwx #okmesonet https://t.co/fREMaUulnO pic.twitter.com/QJpLkmqPG5
Good Lord. https://t.co/BRgChxDtSv
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) December 15, 2021
Among the many threats posed by Wed's epic central US windstorm, there's this, per NWS/Des Moines:
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) December 15, 2021
"Despite the lack of leaves on the trees, there remains a lot of weak areas on trees from the 2020 Derecho that could be further damaged during this event."https://t.co/jSBw8qFWuA
Evening Updates:
I don't think I've seen this before. A tornado warned storm in Nebraska moving at 100 mph! #NBCDFWWeather pic.twitter.com/A7YyadHIXG
— Rick Mitchell (@RickMitchellWX) December 15, 2021
The scale of the forward spread vs. lateral spread in this wind-driven Texas Panhandle fire…just wow. https://t.co/7LUbAvoeiD
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) December 15, 2021
Family heading back to KC from Denver
— Greg Thomas (@greg80795608) December 15, 2021
Western Kansas on I-70 pic.twitter.com/ixwzbiqB63
The number of wind damage reports with today's system moving through the plains is staggering! There are also a handful of tornado reports coming in closer to the storm's circulation. Several of these are for winds over hurricane strength (over 74 mph.) pic.twitter.com/KeoxJFF9uj
— Keith Monday (@kmondayWSOC9) December 15, 2021
Simply remarkable satellite imagery. It's got a little bit of everything. Severe weather (derecho). Dust storm. Wildfires. Snow. Sting Jet. pic.twitter.com/fAp6Z44fEe
— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) December 15, 2021
Related:
Notable facts on tomorrow's severe weather potential:
— Jake Carstens (@JakeCarstens) December 14, 2021
1. It's the first time in meteorological winter (DJF) that Minnesota has been included in a Slight Risk on the Day 2 outlook, at least back to 2002.
2. There are no tornadoes on record in the state during these months. pic.twitter.com/Iue43x2fHY
This is an important point to consider when working with climatological tornado datasets – or many datasets in general.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) December 14, 2021
Understanding how the data was collected & its caveats is arguably more important than what the data shows on its own – these can help to explain some trends. https://t.co/VkfG0BvHhi
An apocalyptic winter storm front swallowing Boulder this morning!
— David Roche (@MountainRoche) December 15, 2021
In 90 seconds, it went from calm and warm to a wall of wind stronger than anything I have experienced 🤯 pic.twitter.com/0YU8Mq6taV
Winter Storm Brings Damaging Wind Threat, Snow
— James Wilson (@tornadokid3) December 15, 2021
From The Weather Channel iPhone App https://t.co/egKawNLTFJ pic.twitter.com/STbqwJWDUe
A dryline reaching Southern Minnesota on December 15th is not something I would've expected but here we are. pic.twitter.com/ccQ5pjokfv
— Kaylan Patel (@WxPatel) December 15, 2021
Here are some “ET’s” reported from Wednesday:
#ThursdayMorning – #Wx: The #ExtremeTemperatures continue. Recommend @climateguyw 's daily digest of all things #Climate and #weather for more analysis on the whys and wherefores: https://t.co/MVTSfUvH4i
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) December 16, 2021
15 December-Historic day in USA
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 16, 2021
A summary here:
Texas 92F/33.3C
OK 83F
KS 80F
AR and MO 79F
Iowa 78F at Oskaloos and Chariton Mc Nay -NEW DECEMBER STATE RECORD smashed by 4F
IL 75F
Wisconsin 72F at Boscabel -NEW DECEMBER STATE RECORD
More records tomorrow:Don't miss the updates! pic.twitter.com/cvzxB8T79q
USA Warm Spell- Victim number two is….#Wisconsin. With a provisional 70F Boscobel already tied the December State record which was set at Kenosha and West Allis in December 2001. Warm air is moving northeast, many more records on the way. Stay tuned always on @extremetemps ! pic.twitter.com/2Er39DVfnK
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 15, 2021
70s in Iowa in mid-December.
— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) December 15, 2021
Nothing to see here folks. Move right along.#ClimateCrisis pic.twitter.com/guVh7UMrN1
Breaking news: As of midday the State of #Iowa already broke its record of the highest temperature ever recorded in December with 75F at Ottumwa (still potentially rising). Previous 74F at Thurman on 6 Dec 1939. History is gonna be rewritten with hundreds of records being smashed pic.twitter.com/tZSfXXlvJZ
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 15, 2021
It is 6 am, and Kirksville has broke their high temperature record. pic.twitter.com/zPmykiCnvV
— NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) December 15, 2021
Here is some November 2021 climatology:
November 2021 in #Guatemala was drier than normal in the South,wetter in the central parts and normal in the North.Temperature anomalies ranged from average to +1C above and was the 37th consecutive warmer than average month nationwide.See rainfall anomalies maps by Insivumeh. pic.twitter.com/G9FptiTjv3
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 15, 2021
November 2021 in #Fiji was warm. Average temperature anomaly was +1.02C above the 81-10 norm.During the month a temperature of 36.6C was recorded Keiyasi,only 0.7C from the Fijian all time high. Precipitations were near average. See rainfall anomalies map by Fiji Met. Service. pic.twitter.com/SMLNH0JRZp
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 15, 2021
Here is more climate and weather news from Wednesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
And JTWC is now predicting initial landfall in the Philippines as a Cat 5 (plus other landfalls within the islands):https://t.co/qK1C7w9tIZ https://t.co/ALuaHXFfG5
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) December 15, 2021
New heat wave coming to Central/Western Australia. The weekend will probably witness the highest temperature of the whole 2021 in the Southern Hemisphere with temp. above >45C on Saturday in Central Australia and on Sunday in Western Australia. pic.twitter.com/xJyPZquywj
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 15, 2021
Thank you for your patience through the survey process of this historic tornado event that impacted Western Kentucky Friday night. The portion of the long-track tornado from Fulton County to Muhlenberg County in Western Kentucky will be given a preliminary damage rating of EF4. pic.twitter.com/N5hM3aEmKb
— NWS Paducah, KY (@NWSPaducah) December 15, 2021
#WednesdayMorning Reading: #Conservation + #ClimateAction: Scientists urge creating strategic forest reserves to mitigate #climatechange, protect biodiversity https://t.co/Ryf739owLi via @physorg_com
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) December 15, 2021
#WednesdayMorning Reading: “I was so scared to go to the streets and just hold a placard. I was scared of people looking at me, scared of what my friends from school would think." @vanessa_vash's fight for the forgotten countries of the #climatecrisis https://t.co/e8Wbq3VnBa
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) December 15, 2021
#WednesdayMorning Reading: #Arctic vs. #ClimateChange: "Large commercial ships are increasingly infiltrating formerly frozen areas, disturbing wildlife and generating disastrous amounts of trash." There's something almost sacriligious going on.https://t.co/NQLSAIl55I
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) December 15, 2021
Interesting new study of SAR11 bacteria & how they work in relation to the carbon cycle. #ClimateCrisis #Science, always discovering more. Gas-passing plankton illuminate another piece of the carbon cycle puzzle https://t.co/dOGdLwEdjo via @physorg_com
— Paul Noël Writer, Environmentalist, 🍃💚🍃 (@JunagarhMedia) December 15, 2021
Coal-free Victoria could be just over a decade away, analysis suggests
— Environment Victoria (@EnviroVic) December 15, 2021
"We're calling for the Latrobe Valley Authority to be funded until the very last coal power station closes and included in upcoming budgets" @GregFoyster @JarrodWhittaker @abcnews https://t.co/GKfH73AowQ
No snow on Christmas for Southtown unless Heat Miser & Cold Miser make a last-minute deal… https://t.co/SNax9gK2FL
— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) December 15, 2021
New, the first of two concluding S5 episodes: @amywestervelt guides us through the actions needed NOW to evade the worst of climate chaos.
— Scene On Radio (@SceneOnRadio) December 8, 2021
The Power Structure, Not the Energy Source, with brilliant thinkers and activists including @KateAronoff @JKSteinberger @maxberger pic.twitter.com/mSn0alfabB
#ClimateAction – #Winter #2: Adding a #carbonPrice would bolster the #climate provisions of the #BuildBackBetter reconciliation bill. There's still time, and if you haven't called your Senators lately, time to do it again.
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) December 15, 2021
Switchboard: 202-224-3121 https://t.co/ALZwubiCdf
Another gorgeous animation of this morning's squall. #COwx https://t.co/oJg9rUvgNx
— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) December 15, 2021
The initial front has just barrelled through the Boulder area. The sky's been unearthly. https://t.co/B4qzCkj6yr
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) December 15, 2021
Enjoy the views: morning sunshine over the snow at Yosemite @YoseConservancy #CAwx 12/15/2021 pic.twitter.com/WTFOmcsua5
— Rob Mayeda (@RobMayeda) December 15, 2021
I have to admit that I'm in total weather geek mode tonight. Winds gusting 50-60 mph the past hour straight and continuous heavy snow. Just glad I'm not out on the road. #UTwx pic.twitter.com/fmwPIPJqaL
— David Lawrence 🎄🎅🎁 (@weatherdaveutah) December 15, 2021
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
Omicron is spreading at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant. I need to be very clear: vaccines alone will not get any country out of this crisis.
— Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) December 14, 2021
It’s not vaccines instead of masks, distancing, ventilation or hand hygiene.
Do it all. Do it consistently. Do it well. pic.twitter.com/YAVfJXsviQ
People need to continue Covid-prevention practices, wearing masks, maintaining a distance and washing their hands.
— Jake Reyna (@iJakeReyna) December 15, 2021
“So we need to act now. It’s not time to wait. There is no time to wait until we start to see increasing hospitalizations"https://t.co/5oqoHWuYM6
📍Key study finds #Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies **70 times faster** than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus, which may explain why Omicron may transmit faster than previous variants. Less in lungs though.
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 15, 2021
https://t.co/tgCeF7q9HF pic.twitter.com/H8Pmqq5uAb
📍The coronavirus is airborne. Very airborne. Even if you don’t see anyone—doesn’t mean the aerosols aren’t in the air. WATCH📺
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 15, 2021
➡️ you need high quality N95 / KN95 / KF94 / FFP2/ FFP3 masks.
➡️ also please ventilate, get HEPA filters, get upper room UV. pic.twitter.com/4RjVs7BE2x
Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto, who has battled Stage 4 cancer and multiple sclerosis, urged his viewers to get vaccinated after testing positive for breakthrough COVID. Now he's getting sent death threats. https://t.co/pxQVbAmTgz
— NPR (@NPR) October 27, 2021
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”