Extreme Temperature Diary- Tuesday August 16th, 2022/Main Topic: Rise of the U.S. Extreme Heat Belt/Chinese Record Trends

The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Risd of the U.S. Extreme Heat Belt/Chinese Record Trends

Dear Diary. As I complained yesterday, climate crisis news and events are coming at us so fast, it’s hard to highlight just one per day on this blog. Of course, many that I don’t highlight as the main topic of the day are linked on my daily news feed list. Today it would be prudent to do a twofer.

Yesterday I promised to update my NCEI record stats for China since they are having a near season long historic heat wave, which will obviously affect crops that feed well over a billion people:

I can vouch for the dataset I have been using since the decade of the 2000’s as being very accurate, cataloging practically all reports of records coming from all stations that have been recording climatological data for at least 30 years.

Here is what we see for China, which has good data, but only back to the 1970’s. Many other countries like the United States have been recording climatological data back to the turn if the 20th century:

As expected, due to climate change the trends on the above charts are up. One report can be a tied record. For example, so far since 1/1/2020 there have been 2025 reports of daily high minimum records across China in the U.S. National Center for Environmental Information website through 8/7/2022.

Let’s breakdown daily records since 1/1/2022:

And by month:

As shown on the above two charts, there have been very few months this decade in which more cold records were reported than cold, which is a big warning sign of nature being out of balance because of carbon pollution. Hundreds of hot records have been reported since June 1st, the start of climatological summer in China.

Here are some more Chinese reports just from the last two days via Maximilliano Herrera:

Now for our second part, I learned yesterday that researchers have proposed that a new “Extreme Heat Belt” is setting up across the United States.

This reminds me of the Tornado Belt, which most people in the general public are aware of. This is all disturbing news. Here are more details from Axios:

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/15/extreme-heat-belt-global-warming?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pro_deals_climatetech_subs&stream=top

Aug 15, 2022 – Energy & Environment

An “Extreme Heat Belt” will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

Andrew Freedman

Counties expected to experience heat indices above 125°F by 2053

Heat index is what the temperature feels like, combining humidity and air temperature

Note: Shaded counties are those that will, on average, have 0.5 days or more at or above a 125F° heat index in 2053; Data: First Street Foundation; Map: Axios Visuals

A new study reveals the emergence of an “extreme heat belt” from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053.

The big picture: In just 30 years, climate change will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer.

  • The findings come from a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation.
  • The new report is unique for examining current and future heat risks down to the property level across the country, and joins similar risk analyses First Street has completed for flooding and wildfires.
  • As average temperatures increase due to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, instances of extreme heat are forecast to escalate.
  • This report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity.

Threat Level: The report, which is based on First Street’s peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to “extreme heat,” defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million.

  • However, due to the anticipated warming during the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people, an increase of 13 times over 30 years.
  • The developing “Extreme Heat Belt” forms a region of vulnerability from northern Texas to Illinois, and includes the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Tulsa and Chicago.
  • By 2030, some coastal areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may also experience days with a heat index above 125°F, the report found.

Zoom in: The report shows a country that will have to grapple with the effects of increased heat exposure nearly everywhere, though there will be distinctions based on geography.

  • For example, the study finds that in 2053, the West will have the highest chance for long durations with “local hot days,” which are days that exceed the temperatures typically experienced for a particular area.
  • The Gulf and Southeast will see the highest chances and longest duration of exposure to what are termed “dangerous days,” with a heat index greater than 100°F, the report found.

Between the lines: The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street’s analysis found.

  • The counties with the largest changes in dangerous days between 2023 and 2053 are mainly located in Florida, led by the populous areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.
  • The report shows how the characteristics of heat waves may change in the near future. Many spots currently see more than 20 straight days with heat indices above 100°F. However by 2053, such streaks could be as many as 74 consecutive days, the report states.
  • The study also sheds light on cooling demand driven by the increasingly hot conditions, including cooling-driven increases in carbon emissions, which would aggravate warming further.
  • And Texas, Florida, California, Ohio and Missouri constitute the top 5 states with the biggest cooling demand-related uptick in CO2 emissions between now and 2053, the report shows.

Meanwhile… The U.S. is already seeing the clear fingerprints of human-caused global warming on extreme heat events. Last month, for example, the country’s nighttime lows were the warmest on record for any month.

  • Unusually hot overnight temperatures during heat waves increase the risk to public health of heat-related illness.
  • In addition, the number of warm temperature records outnumbered the cold temperature records by a ratio of nearly eight-to-one.

What’s next: Communities are innovating to reduce the impacts of extreme heat and put in place better heat action plans, among other climate resilience steps.

Go deeper…

Another take on this story:

Here are some more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks:

Here is more climate and weather news from Tuesday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

(If you like these posts and my work, please contribute via this site’s PayPal widget. Thanks in advance for any support.) 

Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”

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