The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of recently reported ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: The Climate Guy’s Predictions for the Midterms
Dear Diary. It’s time to address the proverbial elephant invading the room, pun intended. Politicians, pundits and even climate experts have described the U.S. midterm elections as crucial for keeping our democracy intact. Should Republicans gain power fairly with every vote counted, they will be very reluctant to let it go after subsequent elections. Also, should this now fascist authoritarian party get control of one or both houses of Congress, all of President Biden’s climate initiatives will be under threat. The fossil fuel loving Republicans will be able to defund a lot of what’s in the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains most of Biden’s climate change fighting measures.
So, what does the old Climate Guy think will happen on election day tomorrow? Using conventional wisdom and polling, I would have to sadly predict that the Democrats will lose the House, with the Republicans gaining about 20-30 seats. Republicans have to net only 5 seats among the 435-seat body to gain control. Usually, the opposite party of the President during their first midterm does well…that’s just common political science knowledge.
Unlike in 2010, though, when Obama underwent his first midterm, this won’t be a “wave” election, when Tea Party Republicans gained 63 seats. I think that messaging of losing our democracy will register through the electorate enough to prevent a wave election, but as many pundits have stated, “It’s the economy, stupid,” so high inflation will seal the fate of Democrats. Also, please keep in mind that redistricting, or gerrymandering, alone because of DeSantis’ actions in Florida and elsewhere will swing some seats towards the Republicans.
The U.S. Senate is a tossup. At a 50-50 split plus Vice President Kamala Harris being the deciding vote, the Republicans only need one more seat to gain control of the Senate. The most likely place to pick up that one seat would be in my home state of Georgia. The Republicans have trotted out a very flawed candidate in the person of Hershel Walker, who is best known to be a football star hero, but later became quite the philanderer, having many kids out of wedlock and allegedly insisting that one of his girlfriends get an abortion, despite his strong pro-life stance. Just like Trump, Walker has also been known to constantly lie about his credentials and businesses. I guess that’s why these two peas in a pod support each other.
Anyway, I’m predicting that the Senate will be a toss-up, with the most likely outcome being another 50-50 split, thus the Democrats would retain control of the Senate. The Senate Pennsylvania race between Fetterman and Mehmet Oz looks very close, and could go the way of Oz. If either Oz or Walker loses, it’s likely the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. And yes…Georgia, Georgia, Georgia, if it weren’t for you after a runoff election in 2020, the Democrats would not have gained control of the Senate so that climate initiatives would have been possible under Biden, producing a ray of hope for worldwide mitigation efforts.
If my predictions hold true, or worse, a circus will ensue during 2023, which will be an embarrassment for the U.S. The House under Kevin McCarthy as Speaker will try playing tit for tat, impeaching Biden on trumped up corruption charges probably involving his son, Hunter Biden, to get even with the Democrats impeaching Trump. Certainly, there will be no movement on climate as House Republicans start to undo the Inflation Reduction Act. What’s worse, the House will set Trump or some other Republican up for victory after the 2024 election, even if a Democrat appears to have won the vote. Yes, alternative slates of electors could undo any free and fair elections in late 2024. That’s another reason to get rid of our Electoral College system in our Constitution.
Well, the next 72 hours will be interesting. We will know fairly early tomorrow night whether or not the House falls. It may take several days, if not some runoff elections, to determine what happens to the U.S. Senate. Follow Dr. Michael Mann’s reactions tomorrow night to see how this election goes. He’s quite the political animal like yours truly, so his post-election insights will be valuable.
Here is more on this subject:
Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks:
Here is some new October 2022 climatology:
Here is more climate and weather news from Monday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
More on Nicole:
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Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”