Extreme Temperature Diary- Friday October 27th, 2023/Main Topic: Cold Front Will Put an End to U.S. Record October Heat

guyonclimate_mi5tor

The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Cold Front Will Put an End to U.S. Record October Heat

Dear Diary. September going through most of October has been quite toasty for most of the United States. The ratio of daily record high max records to those of daily low mins has been over ten to one for both months. Our climate is not so broken yet that temporarily weather corrections won’t occur, however. Finally, as October turns the page onto November at Halloween, the climate changed atmosphere will be spitting out a colder than average weather pattern, putting an end to record warmth now affecting most of the eastern half of the country:

As noted from the above chart from Friday afternoon, cold air from Canada has already spilled into the northern Rockies and is penetrating into the northern Plains. We will see many reports of record warmth in the Northeast today where some locations will get close to 80°F.

By the first day of November these minimum temperatures look quite chilly. We might see some reports of record chill by then across the Plains, but the airmass settling over the nation won’t be historically cold. Historic cold outbreaks do set hundreds of records:

For a detailed report on this welcome cooldown by some who like traditional cold fall weather, here is a new Washington Post article:

Halloween weather forecast: Rain in Mid-Atlantic, mostly dry elsewhere – The Washington Post

Trick or treat? Here’s your Halloween weather forecast.

Large parts of the country look dry but cold. Some rain could fall in the Mid-Atlantic.

By Matthew Cappucci

Updated October 27, 2023 at 12:56 p.m. EDT|Published October 27, 2023 at 12:41 p.m. EDT

The height of Halloween spirit in Alexandria, Va., in 2021. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

There are few nights of the year when more people take to the streets than on Halloween. Children frolic through neighborhoods in hot pursuit of candy, parents and guardians chase after them hoping to manage their sugar highs, and millions find themselves outdoors for hours.

It’s a time when the weather forecast is of the utmost importance. Fortunately, the weather is looking mostly cooperative. Most of the Lower 48 will be dry except for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, where there could be some rain, and around the Great Lakes, where some snow showers are possible.

That said, it will be a cold one. Virtually the entire Lower 48, other than Florida and California, will face temperatures well below average, particularly over the Plains, where readings will plummet up to 30 degrees below the norm.

High-temperature difference from normal on Tuesday, as predicted by the National Weather Service. (WeatherBell)

Despite temperatures over the weekend approaching record highs in the eastern United States, a dramatic change is on the way. Canadian high pressure is settling into the West, its leading edge demarcated by a cold front that’s swinging across the heartland. By early next week, the cold front will blast all the way to the Eastern Seaboard. D.C., for example, will be in the 80s this weekend, with highs in the mid-50s by Tuesday.

The cold front sagged through the Texas Panhandle on Friday morning in what locals colloquially call a “Blue Norther.” In Perryton, Tex., temperatures dropped from 64 to 48 degrees in 40 minutes. Winds suddenly gusted to 44 mph out of the north as the front blew through.

Light showers are ongoing ahead of the front, and that will be the trend these next few days. On Friday night, the cold front will stretch from Chicago to Dallas. By Saturday evening, it will progress to south of New York City to Philadelphia to Little Rock. The front’s progress will slow to a crawl, keeping the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in the mild air on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday, the front will press southeastward, allowing the cool air to reach as far south as Georgia. But the front could get hung up along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast late Tuesday, and some rain could develop along it.

Region-by-region trick-or-treating forecast

New England

Temperatures will hover in the 20s for northern and western Maine, northern New Hampshire and northeast Vermont. Thirties dominate elsewhere, except 40s inside of Interstate 95 in southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. There will be mostly clear skies in central New England and light winds with a bright moon. The “waning gibbous” moon will be 91 percent illuminated. Clouds will linger near the coast and over the Appalachians.

Temperatures at 8 p.m. Tuesday in the eastern United States, predicted by the National Weather Service. (WeatherBell)

Mid-Atlantic

Some showers are probable in the eastern Mid-Atlantic, mainly in southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. Some models, such as the European, suggest more-widespread showers could expand to the north and west, with a wave of low pressure forming along the front.

Temperatures will settle in the upper 40s to around 50 east of I-95 and the lower 40s to the north and west after dropping during the afternoon and evening in the wake of a cold front. Lower 30s are expected in the Maryland Panhandle, parts of West Virginia and adjacent Pennsylvania.

The European model shows some snow showers in the Midwest and Great Lakes and some rain in the Mid-Atlantic on Halloween night. (WeatherBell)

Southeast

Some showers are probable in the Carolinas, possibly extending in Georgia. Temperatures start in the 70s in Florida, the 60s in Georgia and southern South Carolina, the 50s over the Deep South and the 40s in North Carolina. Readings will tumble 10 degrees more over the remainder of the night. Expect clouds in Georgia and the Carolinas, with mostly clear skies in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee valleys

A few snow showers are possible in Wisconsin, western Michigan, northern Illinois and Indiana; otherwise, it will be mostly dry and clear. Temperatures in the 40s in Tennessee will drop into the 30s to the north and northwest with some 20s in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. It will feel even colder, with blustery winds from the northwest.

North-central U.S.

Temperatures will be in the teens and 20s in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, with 30s elsewhere. Skies will be mostly clear, but clouds will increase in southern Minnesota and Iowa, where some snow showers or flurries are possible.

Predicted temperatures at 6 p.m. Mountain time on Halloween from the National Weather Service. (WeatherBell)

South-central U.S.

Expect clear skies, except for a few clouds in South Texas. Temperatures will be in the 30s near and north of I-40 in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Forties to around 50 will dominate to the south, except mid-to-upper 50s near the Gulf Coast and Mexican border.

Intermountain West

Temperature depend on elevation. Readings in the 20s will be prevalent in northern zones and/or higher elevations with 50s in the lowest valleys of New Mexico and Arizona. Otherwise, most folks will stay in the 30s and 40s. Highs will generally be 5 to 12 degrees below average. Skies will be clear in southern regions, with cloud cover surfing the jet stream and fanning over Montana, Idaho and northern Wyoming.

West Coast

Clouds will predominate, except in the Great Basin of Nevada. Readings will be in the 70s in the Central Valley of California, the 60s in the Willamette Valley of Oregon and the 50s elsewhere.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

By Matthew Cappucci Matthew Cappucci is a meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang. He earned a B.A. in atmospheric sciences from Harvard University in 2019 and has contributed to The Washington Post since he was 18. He is an avid storm chaser and adventurer, and covers all types of weather, climate science, and astronomy. Twitter

Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

One Last Set of September 2023 Climatology:

Here is More Climate and Weather News from Friday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Today’s News on Sustainable, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

More from the Weather Department:

More on the Environment and Nature:

More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:

If you like these posts and my work on record temperature ratios, please contribute via my PayPal widget on this site. Thanks in advance for any support. 

Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *