🌡️ ERA5 data from @CopernicusECMWF— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) November 20, 2023
indicates that 17 November was the first day that average global temperature exceeded 2°C above pre-industrial levels, at 2.07°C above 1850-1900 average.
Provisional ERA5 value for 18 Nov is 2.06°C.
WMO #StateofClimate report 30 Nov at #COP28. pic.twitter.com/f6ZOX6skXE
Even in the most optimistic scenario of current climate plans, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14%.— UN Climate Change (@UNFCCC) November 20, 2023
A new @UNEP report warns: Nations must urgently reduce emissions or we might face global warming of 2.5-2.9°C.
More: https://t.co/RInqRuCbzV#COP28 pic.twitter.com/2d6tKVk8mk
As a reminder, though:
The 1.5C and 2C warming thresholds have been defined in terms of the trend line. Not individual years, let alone months, weeks, or days (the shorter the time period, the larger the random fluctuations). Those who imply otherwise are misleading you. https://t.co/btfcHIsxDf— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) November 20, 2023
Now comes Michael Mann deciding that "long run" means *trend line*. (See link below)— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) November 20, 2023
So I put a quadratic trend line into my 10-year running average graph. Since this is a trailing average over 10 years, the year is 2026/27 when we break 1.5°C for good. https://t.co/YSOpoicqsE pic.twitter.com/fC4d5EyHEN
It’s just one day (so far) above 2°C, but it highlights again that the world is approaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement.— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) November 20, 2023
We already have many of the solutions to rapidly reduce emissions & halt the rise in global temperatures.
We just need to choose to use them. https://t.co/IylANSaMJU
We now have results from a modern reanalysis product (ERA5) that show November 17th was in fact the first day the world has experienced that was 2C above the preindustrial (1850-1900) average.— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) November 19, 2023
Hopefully it will prove transitory, but its a worrying sign. https://t.co/u11iXDTaYG
Yesterday, temporarily, planet Earth took its first step over the 2.0 degrees Celsius barrier. pic.twitter.com/0SFcnbJ4Lp— Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) November 19, 2023
For the first time in the modern era, Earth's temperature climbed 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average Friday.@ssdance reports:https://t.co/N3QlJwZ8cu— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) November 20, 2023
graphic via @OceanTerra pic.twitter.com/yXgE3mWJAI
Earth passed a feared global warming milestone Friday, at least briefly
Average global temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above a pre-industrial benchmark on Friday, preliminary data show
By Scott Dance
The planet marked an ominous milestone Friday: The first day global warmth crossed a threshold, if only briefly, that climate scientists have warned could have calamitous consequences.
Preliminary data show global temperatures averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above a historic norm, from a time before humans started consuming fossil fuels and emitting planet-warming greenhouse gases.
That does not mean efforts to limit global warming have failed — yet. Temperatures would have to surpass the 2-degree benchmark for months and years at a time before scientists consider it breached.
But it’s a striking reminder that the climate is moving into uncharted territory. Friday marked the first time that everyday fluctuations around global temperature norms, which have been steadily increasing for decades, swung the planet beyond the dangerous threshold. It occurs after months of record warmth that have stunned many scientists, defying some expectations of how quickly temperatures would accelerate this year.
“I think while we should not read too much into a single day above 2C (or 1.5C for that matter) it’s a startling sign nonetheless of the level of extreme global temperatures we are experiencing in 2023,” Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with Stripe and Berkeley Earth, said in a message to The Washington Post.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, said Sunday on the social media platform X that Friday’s global temperatures were 1.17C (2.1F) above the 1991-2020 average, a record-setting margin.
Given how much human-caused warming had occurred by that period, that means Friday’s average global temperature was 2.06C (3.7F) above a preindustrial reference period, 1850-1900, she said.
Provisional ERA5 global temperature for 17th November from @CopernicusECMWF was 1.17°C above 1991-2020 – the warmest on record.— Dr Sam Burgess 🌍🌡🛰 (@OceanTerra) November 19, 2023
Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C. pic.twitter.com/jXF8oRZeip
The estimate of global warmth comes from a European model that uses the same sorts of observations used in weather predictions to instead look backward, and estimate global climate conditions nearly in real time.
Direct observations that scientists will gather and vet in the coming weeks could soon confirm the record warmth.
A year of record-setting warmth continues
That the globe surpassed the 2-degree warming benchmark for at least one day adds an exclamation point to a string of temperature records set in recent months.
Even before Saturday, scientists said 2023 was virtually certain to surpass 2016 as the globe’s warmest on record, and likely to mark one of its warmest periods in 125,000 years, going back to a time before Earth’s last ice age. That estimate is based on paleoclimate records that show there was at least no extended period of the sort of warmth the planet is now experiencing, and that temperatures are rising with unprecedented speed.
Analyses released this month show 2023 average global temperatures are likely to end up 1.3 to 1.4C (2.3 to 2.5F) above preindustrial levels. Climate scientists predict that sustained global warming at 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels could overwhelm societies and upend economies and political systems.
Planetary warming is only expected to accelerate in the coming months because of a deepening El Niño, the infamous climate pattern that drives weather extremes and raises global temperatures by releasing vast stores of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
But that surge of El Niño-fueled warmth typically does not arrive until after the climate pattern reaches its peak — something forecast to occur this winter. Because of that, scientists had said earlier this year they did not expect the globe to surge to such record warmth until 2024.
Friday’s milestone offers yet more proof of how the planet has defied climate scientists’ expectations this year.
By Scott Dance Scott Dance is a reporter for The Washington Post covering extreme weather news and the intersections between weather, climate, society and the environment. He joined The Post in 2022 after more than a decade at the Baltimore Sun, where he most recently focused on climate change and the environment. Twitter
Global temperatures briefly break 2°C as a warning light ahead of #COP28— Brian McHugh 🌏🏳️🌈 (@BrianMcHugh2011) November 20, 2023
With thanks to @EliotJacobson and @MichaelEMann for my latest piece for @YorksBylines #ClimateChange#ClimateCrisishttps://t.co/JFtWt0Qy8Y
You no longer have to die, to experience hell— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) November 20, 2023
You can experience it right here on Earth in the coming years as humans push Earth faster and faster into the abyss of an unlivable Hot House Earth https://t.co/A5RKn0CPbI
Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Today was another scorching day in parts of BRAZIL🇧🇷,specially in Minas Gerais:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 19, 2023
Salinas had its hottest day in climatic history with 42.7C.
42.8C at Itaobim.
Sadly I have bad news:after a couple of cooler days,fierce heat will return mid next week with again 41C/43C in "Minas". pic.twitter.com/4QugnyzMN5
More record heat in #Mexico:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 20, 2023
yesterday the city of San Luis Potosi, located at 1874m asl rose to an incredible 31.8C , its hottest November day on records, even more amazing since it was recorded on day 19th.
More extreme heat today with 40C in the lowlands. https://t.co/jdP1Bvwyth
Second phase of the record heat wave in Central Asia— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 20, 2023
Today 20 November 31.8C at Essenguly and at Tedzhen in TURKMENISTAN.
Next night will be crazy:Tropical (Tmin >20C) in some areas and tomorrow >30C in Uzbekistan and >25C in Kazakhstan.
It's an absolutely insane November. pic.twitter.com/iaegovafG8
New Heat Wave in Western Australia:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 20, 2023
Today the long term station of Bidyadanga had a MIN temperature of 29.0C which ties its highest in November in climatic history.
The heat wave will be intense and long lasting in the West but cold spells will affect Central/Eastern Australia. pic.twitter.com/4nKtVQ1iMV
Yesterday 19 November was a very mild day in #France.— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 20, 2023
Temperatures rose as high as 26.2C at Cogolin, but it was mild also at higher elevations with 14.9C at Briancon at 1300m asl.
Colder weather is on the way in a couple of days though. https://t.co/hXNHyiHT04
Intense heat wave in Southern Africa with temperatures reaching 43C in South Africa,Zimbabwe,Mozambique and Malawi.— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 20, 2023
The heat will last most of the week, intensifying and further spreading to Nambia,Botswana,Madagascar and Tanzania. pic.twitter.com/25EP8WI5pP
Very hot in all Indonesia from 37.4C in Java,36.6C in Flores Island,36.0C in West Timor— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 20, 2023
Record in West Papua:
Serui,in the Yepen Islands,with 36.2C broke its all time high. pic.twitter.com/VvluI6dMUU
Remember remember this November – Climate hell👇— Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) November 20, 2023
46C in Argentina
46C in South Africa
44.6C in Bolivia
43C in Brazil
43C in Paraguay
42C in Mexico
37C in Thailand
36C in Laos
33.2 in Spain pic.twitter.com/NWxHazHNw4
Here is some November 2023 Climatology:
U.S. in disarray. pic.twitter.com/BjTZnJkXza— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) November 20, 2023
Here is More Climate and Weather News from Monday:
The new UNEP Emissions Gap finds that humanity is still ‘breaking all the wrong records’ in fast-warming world, and that we are still far off track to limit warming to well-below 2C. I have a new article covering the details over at @CarbonBrief: https://t.co/48vL245YDk pic.twitter.com/Yb2h8UJYk9— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) November 20, 2023
🌎📈 422.36 ppm #CO2 in the atmosphere on Nov. 18 2023 📈 Up 4.81 from 417.55 ppm one year ago 📈🌎 @NOAA Mauna Loa data: https://t.co/nu6ktMn2wU 🌎 https://t.co/DpFGQoYEwb Daily: https://t.co/PTTkLiPGm2 🌎🙏 Pls. help make this global sustainability # visible 🙏 pic.twitter.com/RsQxpF3wzm— CO2_Earth (@CO2_earth) November 20, 2023
World facing ‘hellish’ 3C of climate heating, UN warns before #COP28— Damian Carrington (@dpcarrington) November 20, 2023
– ‘We must start setting records on cutting emissions,’ @UNEP boss says, after temperature records obliterated in 2023#emissionsgap
Story by mehttps://t.co/hQpwHNZWp1
World facing ‘hellish’ 3C of climate heating, UN warns before Cop28— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) November 20, 2023
Meanwhile Argentina elects a climate denier who promises to gut climate action and in USA climate denier Trump may get elected again
As climate worsens people vote for climate deniers https://t.co/0EgwnNB7yo
Twitter is rampant with misinformation and disinformation these days. Points of clarification are essential. So let me provide one:— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) November 20, 2023
Planetary warming can STILL be kept below 1.5C.
My recent @LiveScience commentary: https://t.co/9SZ2bigjAM
Striking frontcover of today's Guardian:— Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman) November 20, 2023
"The 1% polluter elite"
Reports on new Oxfam findings:
"Richest 1% account for more carbon emissions than poorest 66%"https://t.co/0UvZXBpbP3 pic.twitter.com/Xgy1BXvZoa
Global heating is disproportionately caused by the wealthy.— Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 (@rahmstorf) November 20, 2023
That's an opportunity, since they are perfectly capably to pay for the investments required to stabilise our climate, including the energy transition. https://t.co/D7I5eIUXSd
Climate change is fundamentally unfair:— Reto Knutti (@Knutti_ETH) November 20, 2023
The super-rich 1% were responsible the same amount of CO2 emissions (16%) as the poorest two thirds of humanity, according to the new Oxfam report.https://t.co/Mn7qI0CDDd pic.twitter.com/9XqRjhBLyi
The key monitoring region (Niño 3.4) in the central equatorial Pacific has just risen to over 2.0˚C above average for the first time during this El Niño event 📈— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) November 20, 2023
The last time that this part of the ocean was this unusually warm was in February 2016. pic.twitter.com/pejA6BEgN3
Your 'moment of doom' for Nov. 20, 2023 ~ Hot times ahead!— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) November 20, 2023
"…the biggest impact of El Niño is likely to be felt in the summer of 2024-25. 'We know that the impact on temperatures associated with El Niño happens the year after the event,' says Karoly."https://t.co/9EkLZY4SSC
Twelve billionaires’ climate emissions outpollute 2.1m homes, analysis finds. These billionaires generate obscene amounts of carbon pollution and include Bill Gates & Jeff Bezos all while we are in extreme danger of climate change https://t.co/pErHRnGohH https://t.co/nBu5qbcjAm pic.twitter.com/Wjl3sfnXVp— Dr. William J. Ripple (@WilliamJRipple) November 20, 2023
#MondayMorning Reading: #GlobalWarming vs. #Glaciers: "You know, about a quarter of the glaciers are gone. And what I mean by gone is, yeah, some of them disappeared entirely." Read more: https://t.co/sOINqba6WS— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) November 20, 2023
Hopefully young voters will weigh Biden’s historic climate action and pro-worker policies against Republicans’ denial/policies/actions that *will ensure* climate change is as horrific as possible.— Green News Report (@GreenNewsReport) November 20, 2023
Voting/Not voting in 2024 will determine our climate futurehttps://t.co/Eqzdmxqw0g https://t.co/tSpkJkHpTF
I had a couple of people comment that there’s no direct evidence that CO2 causes global warming. Whether their comment is genuine or disingenuous, they are wrong: NASA measures direct evidence humans are causing climate change – CBS News https://t.co/mkA3zz7E01— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) November 20, 2023
Did you know that U.S. climate pollution has fallen 16% since 2007?— Climate Connections (@CC_Yale) November 20, 2023
🗞️ Eight key takeaways from a major new climate report https://t.co/r5UDV4MMXg
Just Stop Oil protesters’ jail terms potentially breach international law, UN expert says https://t.co/MuYkT5JAOw— Guardian Environment (@guardianeco) November 20, 2023
Extreme weather 'biggest threat' to UK heritage https://t.co/attrv1kbz4 The charity says climate change is "the single biggest threat" facing its 28,500 historic homes, 250,000 hectares of land and 780 miles of coastline.— BONUS (@TheDisproof) November 21, 2023
Today’s News on Sustainable Energy, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:
The new UNEP emissions gap report includes a chapter focusing on carbon dioxide removal.— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) November 21, 2023
It has a neat figure highlighting the feasibility, scalability, ease of MRV, environmental consequences, public perception, cost, and permanence of CDR pathways: https://t.co/ljvZHAtgIF pic.twitter.com/ckP42ev4fV
1/ We just released a new report titled “Biden’s Fossil Fuel Fail: How U.S. Oil + Gas Supply Rises under the Inflation Reduction Act, Exacerbating Environmental Injustice.”— Oil Change International (@PriceofOil) November 20, 2023
Here’s the short version: https://t.co/ELbZNbxv1i
In at least one state, the biggest power plant is now composed of batteries in basements and solar panels on roofs, all controllable by the utility.https://t.co/DHaU3zal0g— Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) November 21, 2023
Published today:— Joeri Rogelj (@JoeriRogelj) November 20, 2023
The Broken Record of countries' climate pledges not delivering on the emissions reductions we need.
Read the latest @UNEP #EmissionsGap report https://t.co/StqF4XclDp
(A longer 🧵to follow) pic.twitter.com/2clXYmiMQM
There are mounting calls for a fossil fuel “phaseout” ahead of the UN climate talks.— Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) November 21, 2023
Experts say achieving 1.5 degrees means no new drilling or mining, but with hundreds of new fossil fuel projects in the pipeline, forces are aligned against a phaseout.https://t.co/GYCnzRf5rS
More from the Weather Department:
A few tornadoes, perhaps significant, are possible if sustained supercells can form ahead of a broken squall line this evening.— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) November 20, 2023
The greatest risk will be over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Arklatex.
Best tornado corridor along the I-20 stretch. https://t.co/xgt7xW0WSd
For many of you over the next couple of days you will be dealing with TORNADO WARNINGS for the first time in over 5 months!— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) November 20, 2023
Expect to be in a TORNADO watch by afternoon likely close to the i20 corrior in Louisiana then when to warnings come the atmosphere means business as the… pic.twitter.com/XrnAyRjzYe
Closely monitoring the tornado threat this afternoon into tonight, especially across north-central Louisiana & central Mississippi. Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) threat for damaging winds (60-70mph) & a few stronger tornadoes. @weatherchannel— Scot Pilié (@ScotPilie_Wx) November 20, 2023
Full update: https://t.co/p8pXPKVSLV pic.twitter.com/yfuTy0CKEb
Traveling in the eastern U.S. tomorrow (Tuesday)? It's going to be a mess with a lot of rain and some snow in parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes. Conditions should improve some Wednesday outside New England.— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) November 20, 2023
Here are the details ⬇️https://t.co/0OzS1HCHpD
Hurricane force winds in Gatlinburg! Mountains getting some big gusts expected later today into tomororw. NWS saying up to 80mph! High Wind Warnings in place. EURO Tuesday AM here. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/G9mJrs0cxE— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) November 20, 2023
Is the first sign of winter on its way? ⛄— Met Office (@metoffice) November 20, 2023
Although there is some uncertainty at this stage, there is a chance of a cold spell of weather by the weekend with some sleet, and possibly snow over high ground ❄️ pic.twitter.com/Q1HpNArXl2
The curious dance of the striped cuckoo— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) November 20, 2023
More on the Environment and Nature:
"How underground sounds can help us save the world's largest trees"…….— Robert Redmayne Hosking 🔥🌍🔥 (@rhosking252) November 20, 2023
Scientists are learning how the communication of trees can share with us, a new depth of understanding and knowledge.
The next time you wonder if trees can talk……go and listen. https://t.co/8cLnj3ilZT
Nuts, humanity at its dumbest. Saudi Arabia is building a futuristic ski resort in the middle of the desert https://t.co/SqNh9rMEQr— Paul Noël, Citizen of the pale blue dot, our home (@JunagarhMedia) November 20, 2023
#MondayMorning Reading: "Nutrients are essential to crop production. But the convergence of high rates of chemical fertilizer use and immense manure production led to well-documented risks to human #health and the #environment." https://t.co/UAbwUkpNBd— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) November 20, 2023
More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:
Again, I can't confirm this but it's reportedly video of Ulawun erupting…..— Volcaholic 🌋 (@volcaholic1) November 20, 2023
On the evening of the 20th November, a significant eruption took place at Ulawun Volcano in Papua New Guinea, with volcanic ash reaching 15,000 meters.pic.twitter.com/x6dUoPb3vt
In the Zhongnan mountains in china,— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) November 20, 2023
there is this 1,400-year-old ginkgo