Extreme Temperature Diary- February 2nd, 2024/ Main Topic: Ha Ha…A Toasty Groundhog Predicts an Early Spring

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The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track global extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Ha Ha…A Toasty Groundhog Predicts an Early Spring

Dear Diary. Yesterday we delved into how warm conditions will be going well into February. Today is Groundhog Day in which supposedly a little rodent can tell whether or not a portion of the U.S. will have six more weeks of winter…all in jest and for fun. Old Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow, so spring is just around the corner:

Most of the U.S. had only about two weeks of bitter cold winter conditions this season earlier in January. I see no comparable conditions going through most of the rest of this month, although we should see some colder than average air masses moving southward from Canada around and after Valentine’s Day if overextended models past 168 hours can be believed:

Generally, I think that the little rodent will be right this year. If he has any credibility, in future years he will be predicting more and more early spring as the world warms from climate change.

Here is a short article from the Washington Post on Groundhog Day and this year’s weather:

Punxsutawney Phil does not see his shadow, predicts an early spring – The Washington Post

Punxsutawney Phil says early spring. Here’s why that could be a thing.

Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow. His predictions are pretty bad, though.

By Kasha Patel

Updated February 2, 2024 at 7:38 a.m. EST|Published February 1, 2024 at 8:00 a.m. EST

Six more weeks of winter slacks or an early welcome to springtime tasks? It depends on which mammal you want to ask.

On Friday, Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog, announced his weather forecast. If he sees his shadow, expect a winter blast. If he doesn’t, get ready for spring — fast. This year, he saw no shadow to cast. He declared an early spring, taking many aghast.

It’s true that groundhogs, even ones with human names, don’t know much about weather prediction. His forecasts are mostly fiction, but he chirps it with a lot of conviction.

Since 1887, Phil forecast accurately about 40 percent of the time — that’s worse than flipping a dime.

Seeing his shadow is a common component. Eighty-five percent of his predictions call for an extended cold moment. He is clearly a big wintertime proponent, but that’s probably because he’s a hibernating rodent.

Phil rarely forecasts spring to come early. Maybe this time he’ll be more accurate, surely.

The groundhog saw his shadow, Feb. 2, 1954, as the sun peeked through an overcast sky at Washington Park Zoo in Milwaukee, Wis. (Dwayne Newton/AP)

The fact that he tries could merit some admiration. It’s hard to predict one condition for the entire country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Even NOAA predicts weather for different regions across the nation.

The National Weather Service issues seasonal outlooks based on computer models and science. They do not have a groundhog for reliance.

According to the Weather Service, the northern United States will probably see temperatures above average degrees. If you like a warm Pacific Northwest and Alaska, warmer-than-normal temperatures may put you at ease. In the Northeast, an early spring bloom could activate your allergies. Southwestern Texas may see a below-average breeze. The mid- to low latitudes have equal chances of above-, near- or below-average temperatures, which I admit is a bit of a tease.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern United States, especially in the Pacific Northwest and for most of Alaska. Much of the United States has an equal chance of experiencing an above-, near- or below-average winter, though. (NOAA)

The Weather Service’s warmer forecast is not too strange. Winter is the fastest warming season in the United States because of climate change. An excess of greenhouse gases more frequently pushes weather beyond the typical range.

Warmer winters still allow cold snaps to roar, just not as intense as before. Although a warmer world could push blasts of cold air to mid-latitudes more. Scientists say that’s a mechanism they are continuing to explore.

A strong El Niño, characterized by a warmer region in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, is also in play. The warmer waters push the Pacific jet stream to a more southerly stray. That brings warmer and drier-than average winter conditions in the northern U.S., scientists say. Southern U.S. regions are affected in a cooler and wetter way.

Punxsutawney Phil probably hasn’t accounted for climate change or the current El Niño pattern in many of his weather prognoses. Maybe that’s why he’s wrong more often than not, if I had to give diagnoses.

In any case, human weather forecasters are on the job, especially when a groundhog thinks a weather map is a bunch of blobs.

By Kasha Patel Kasha Patel writes the weekly Hidden Planet column, which covers scientific topics related to Earth, from our inner core to space storms aimed at our planet. She also covers weather, climate and environment news. Twitter

More on Groundhog Day:

Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

Here is more brand-new January 2024 climatology:

Here is More Climate News from Friday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

More from the Weather Department:

Today’s News on Sustainable Energy, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

More on the Environment and Nature:

More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:

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Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

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