The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😜
Main Topic: Scientists Detect a Sharp Acceleration in Global Warming
Dear Diary. As I keep posting over and over again, the only climate debate I will entertain on this site is not whether or not global warming trends are being caused by mankind’s climate change, but how fast and how bad conditions will get in tune. We have yet another article on that for today’s presentation.
I will state that it appears that Dr. James Hanson is winning this debate in which he states that global warming will accelerate past the +1.5°C above preindustrial condition threshold before 2032. He stated this before knowing that a historic record warm El Niño would develop thus year, which will only strengthen his argument.
Here is that argument from Science News:
Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming | ScienceDaily
Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
Date:August 1, 2026
Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Summary: Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.
Earth’s temperature rise has shifted into overdrive, with the past decade warming faster than any other since modern records began. Credit: Shutterstock
Global warming has sped up since around 2015, according to a new analysis from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). After removing the effects of natural temperature swings, researchers found the first statistically significant evidence that the planet’s long-term warming rate is accelerating.
Over the past decade, global temperatures have risen at an estimated pace of about 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset used. By comparison, the average warming rate from 1970 to 2015 was just under 0.2°C per decade. The recent pace is higher than that of any previous decade since instrumental temperature records began in 1880.
Scientists Isolate the Long-Term Warming Signal
“We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015,” says Grant Foster, a US statistics expert and co-author of the study, which was published today in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.
“We filter out known natural influences in the observational data, so that the ‘noise’ is reduced, making the underlying long-term warming signal more clearly visible,” Foster added.
In climate data, “noise” refers to short-erm temperature changes that can temporarily hide or exaggerate the underlying trend. El Niño, for example, can push global temperatures higher for a limited period by releasing heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. Volcanic eruptions can have the opposite effect by sending particles into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight, while changes in the Sun’s activity can also produce smaller temperature variations.
To separate these temporary influences from the broader warming trend, the researchers analyzed measurements from five widely used global temperature data sets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5).
“The adjusted data show an acceleration of global warming since 2015 with a statistical certainty of over 98 percent, consistent across all data sets examined and independent of the analysis method chosen,” explains Stefan Rahmstorf, PIK researcher and lead author of the study.
Warming Acceleration Appears Across Five Datasets
A statistical certainty of more than 98 percent means the researchers found strong evidence that the change in the warming rate is real rather than the result of random variation in the data. The same overall pattern appeared in all five temperature records, even though the datasets are produced by different scientific organizations and use somewhat different methods.
After the researchers adjusted for El Niño and the solar maximum, the extreme warmth of 2023 and 2024 was reduced slightly in the analysis. Even so, both years remained the two warmest since instrumental records began.
Across all of the datasets, the acceleration started to become visible in 2013 or 2014. The researchers describe the broader shift as beginning around 2015, when the evidence became clearer.
Two Statistical Methods Point to the Same Shift
To determine whether the warming rate had changed since the 1970s, the team used two statistical approaches. The first was a quadratic trend analysis, which tests whether the temperature curve is bending upward over time rather than rising at a constant rate.
The second was a piecewise linear model. This method divides the temperature record into separate periods and objectively identifies when the rate of warming appears to change. Both approaches supported the conclusion that global warming has accelerated.
Study Does Not Identify the Cause
The research was designed to detect and measure the statistical acceleration, not to determine exactly why it has occurred.
However, the authors noted that climate models can produce periods in which warming speeds up. In other words, an increasing rate of warming is consistent with the range of behavior represented in current climate modeling.
Climate models are computer simulations that use the laws of physics to estimate how the atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land respond to greenhouse gases and other influences. They do not predict every short-term fluctuation perfectly, but they help scientists evaluate long-term climate patterns and possible future changes.
1.5°C Threshold Could Be Exceeded Before 2030
“If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement before 2030,” says Stefan Rahmstorf. “How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero.”
The 1.5°C limit refers to the goal of restricting long-term global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. A single year above that level does not by itself mean the Paris Agreement threshold has been permanently crossed. Scientists generally focus on sustained warming over a longer period.
The findings suggest that Earth may now be warming considerably faster than it did during the final decades of the 20th century. Whether that acceleration continues will depend heavily on future carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas.
Story Source:
Materials provided by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Journal Reference:
- G. Foster, S. Rahmstorf. Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly. Geophysical Research Letters, 2026; 53 (5) DOI: 10.1029/2025GL118804
Cite This Page:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 1 August 2026. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm>.
Here are some “ETs” recorded from around the U.S. the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is More Climate News from Friday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)