Extreme Temperature Diary- Friday November 6th, 2026/Main Topic: Extreme Flooding in the Southwest Foreshadows a Wild El Niño Winter

Green News Report

Episode: 11/3/2026 — More info…

Reminder: I'll be offering a comprehensive El Niño update live on YouTube in a few hours (Noon Pacific on Nov 6). See you then, and come with your questions (submit in the live chat!). hhttps://

— Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T16:44:38.000Z

I’ve been photographing the flood damage in and around Durango. It’s shocking to see what all that water and mud has done to our community.Here are some views from yesterday in the Trimble area, north of town. www.waterdesk.photos/Colorado/Dur…

— Mitch Tobin (@mitchtobin.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T03:04:49.792Z

The Southwest’s extreme flooding foreshadows a wild El Niño winter | Grist

Extreme flooding in the Southwest foreshadows a wild El Niño winter

Historically, the oceanic phenomenon boosts precipitation in the southern U.S. Here’s a glimpse at the pain to come.

Gregory Bull / AP Photo

Matt Simon Senior Staff Writer

Published Nov 05, 2026

The Southwest just got way too much of a good thing. Last weekend, a ferocious storm inundated communities and killed at least four people. Though precipitation is an essential component of Arizona’s desert climate, the state got two or three months’ worth of it in just a few days — far more than human infrastructure could handle all at once. Since September 20, an astonishing 28.84 inches of rain has fallen on Clovis, New Mexico, compared to its historical average of just 3.3 inches.

“This weekend was just adding more on the rough times that those communities in Southwest Colorado and Arizona and Utah and New Mexico have been having recently,” said Russ Schumacher, director of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, who’s also the state climatologist. “I think the El Niño connection is pretty clear.”

Indeed, that band of warm water in the Pacific could be priming much of the southern United States for a winter of increased precipitation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook. “Could an event like this have happened in a non-El Niño year?” asked Michael A. Crimmins, a climatologist at the University of Arizona. “It could have, but it would have been a lot harder to pull all of the ingredients together at the same time, and would have been a lot less likely.”

The looming problem this winter is heat, oddly enough. The unfolding El Niño is already the strongest on record, and it could get stronger still in the next few months. Although that amounts to just a handful of extra degrees in the Pacific, it injects a tremendous amount of energy into the atmosphere, scrambling weather the world over. The phenomenon is so influential, in fact, that it has helped cancel hurricanes over in the Atlantic, by messing with winds high up in the atmosphere. Accordingly, this year shattered the record for the latest first hurricane in a season by nearly a month. Normally by this time of year we’d have seen six of these cyclones, but 2026 has still only produced one.

The Southwest, though, gets no such relief from inclement weather. In addition to adding heat to the sky, the warmer waters of El Niño also increase atmospheric moisture. Even beyond the El Niño, temperatures in the Pacific have been running extra hot, which explains why the western part of the ocean has produced 10 hurricanes this season even as the Atlantic has remained quiet. (Overall, more than 90 percent of the excess heat that humans have pumped into the atmosphere has been absorbed by the oceans.)

All this warm water means more moisture for the weather patterns that have been moving into the Southwest over the last month. A separate system in late October, for instance, became one of the most extreme storms in Colorado’s history, pelting higher elevations with up to 8 inches of rain in four days, causing widespread destruction. “It’s just really extreme amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere that have been aimed into the Southwest in each of those storms,” Schumacher said.

This autumn precipitation primed Arizona, Colorado, and other Southwestern states for yet more destruction this past week. For one, rivers were already running high, then ran all the higher. And two, if soils are soaked, a follow-up bout of rain will run off and cause flooding. “We get the second storm, just a little bit after the first one, then everything was primed for even worse flooding this time around,” Schumacher said. 

In mountainous terrain, this gets especially dangerous, as the topography funnels rainwater into raging torrents. “If you hike around the Southwest, you’re going to see out-of-place boulders all over the place,” Crimmins said. “Water put it there. Maybe it was 5,000 years ago or something like that, but water moves. We can have really epic flash flooding.”

The one silver lining here is that any increased precipitation from this El Niño could bring drought relief to much of the southern U.S., according to NOAA’s projections. Climate change is not only exacerbating these ongoing dry spells — hotter temperatures also increase evaporation from reservoirs. At the same time, populations are growing in the Southwest, meaning more people demanding more water. 

With these factors conspiring, the Colorado River’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are approaching the point of collapse. The potential for more rainfall this winter might help fill them, Schumacher said, but it can’t reverse the system’s precipitous decline. “It’s a long way to go to get even back to where we were a year ago,” he said. “Let alone when it was in good condition decades ago.”

The wildcard this year is snowpack: It’s still too early to tell, Schumacher said, how much snow will fall in Colorado. Whereas rainwater flows quickly into rivers, making it harder to store without overwhelming infrastructure — hence all the destructive flooding of late — snowpack slowly releases water as things thaw in the spring. With a record low snowpack earlier this year, Colorado is in desperate need of bountiful flakes in the months ahead.

Water agencies can’t change the weather, but they can at least change how they manage precipitation. Down in Arizona, cities like Tucson have been installing green infrastructure — basically dirt spaces that hydrate native plants — which slow down the flow of water, thus preventing flooding. “There’s really cool and clever ways of thinking about stormwater as a resource,” Crimmins said, “rather than a nuisance.”

Canadian records from November 5, 2026. #Canada

— Don Sutherland (@donsutherland1.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T11:01:37.510Z

The preliminary global mean surface temperature for November 4 was 14.889C (ERA5). That broke the daily record of 14.578C from 2024. It was also the fourth consecutive day above the pre-2026 November monthly record. #ClimateChange

— Don Sutherland (@donsutherland1.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T04:24:25.459Z

#Climate-forward Democrats may have even created a path for a “new #climate politics”.www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T11:33:22.766Z

Every week, I document my personal practice of hope – looking for and sharing good news about climate action and what individuals can do to make a difference – via my free Talking Climate newsletter.

— Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-11-05T22:40:05.946Z

If sports, music and film can shape what we watch, wear and value, they can help shape climate action, too.TNC Chief Scientist @katharinehayhoe.com makes the argument for why cultural influencers should have more climate responsibility: https://nature.ly/4yNpcgG

— The Nature Conservancy (@nature.org) 2026-11-06T13:37:01.72781594Z

Here's a feed of 4,500 scientists who do climate. Just pin it and you can follow along!

— Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-11-05T22:35:15.394Z

👋 Hi! I’m a climate scientist. I share good news about solutions, not so good news about how climate change is affecting us, and endless ideas of what we can do to build a better world together – because hope begins with action.Looking for more? I curate a climate feed and a ton of starter packs ⬇️

— Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-11-05T22:34:22.466Z

Central Florida is on its way to removing long-term drought. NOAA's drought Termination and Amelioration site www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit… Oct. 31 that central Florida needed 16" of rain in 1 month to eliminate long-term drought; now it says 12". Of course the coast is out of drought.

— Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-11-05T23:28:49.590Z

National Weather Service ordered to resume twice-daily weather balloon launches www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news…

— WeatherMatrix (@weathermatrix.bsky.social) 2026-11-05T18:27:02.228Z

Emerging economies set to match advanced nations' #RenewableEnergy capacity additions, IEA says www.reuters.com/business/ene…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T11:49:25.955Z

The world’s largest offshore #wind developer said it welcomed the clarity of the midterm election results in the US, which have boosted the market fortunes of renewable energy groups previously stymied by the Trump administration. www.ft.com/content/3066…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T09:46:03.159Z

2026 all about big and small #batteries – with small installed by #Australia households at rate of 1 gigawatt-hour per month – rooftop #solar is shaping up to have its biggest year of growth on record as it rides the wave of the consumer #energy revolution. reneweconomy.com.au/australia-is…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T11:30:54.736Z

Egypt’s Great Pyramid of Giza is around 4500 years old.#Nuclear waste repositories will have to contain their contents for more than 20 times longer.’Hard to guarantee 100,000 years.In fact digging it back up again in 40 years might be more accurate.www.neimagazine.com/decommission…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T16:59:16.832Z

Damaged #Chernobyl #nuclear site needs urgent funding, warns European development bank. Half a billion euros is required to fix the protective dome that was damaged by Russian attacks. www.politico.eu/article/dama…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T09:43:30.646Z

None of the damage that the Trump regime has done to science has been fixed just because of the midterm election, and a lot of it will be difficult or impossible to fix. We feel better because we can envision a way this ends, but there’s a lot of work to do to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

— David Ho (@davidho.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T18:00:46.270Z

And if you want a weekly dose of hope on how science is building solutions for nature and climate, 👇🏻

— Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-11-05T22:53:26.509Z

Trillions of dollars has been wiped off the stock value of major tech firms in the US, Europe and Asia in a market rout after the US midterm elections sparked concerns of a slowdown in artificial intelligence ( #AI ) development. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article…

— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T11:35:56.713Z

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