Extreme Temperature Diary- Saturday November 7th, 2026/Main Topic: Cryosphere Faces Thousands of Years of Damage When World Overshoots 1.5C, Scientists Warn

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Episode: 11/5/2026 — More info…

Cryosphere faces permanent damage when world overshoots 1.5C, scientists warn | Climate science | The Guardian

Climate science

Cryosphere faces permanent damage when world overshoots 1.5C, scientists warn

UN-backed report finds even temporary rises above Paris agreement target could cause harm to glaciers and polar ice sheets

Climate science

Ajit Niranjan

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Earth’s icy regions face such dangerous melting that global heating should be brought back below 1C after an inevitable period of overshooting global temperature targets, a UN report has found.

Permanent and widespread losses of snow and ice expose a “persistent myth” that overshooting the 1.5C target of the Paris climate agreement – to 2C or 3C – could be manageable or even preferable to urgent cuts to emissions, the report found.

The planet has heated by 1.3C since pre-industrial times and failures to curb greenhouse gas emissions and protect nature have led scientists to conclude that some level of overshoot is inevitable as they fight to keep end-of-century warming to 1.5C.

But extreme effects on the cryosphere – Earth’s water in a solid state, including all its ice and snow – mean temperatures must rise above that threshold for as short a period as possible, the scientists urged. Added to this, enough planet-heating carbon should be removed from the atmosphere to bring long-term warming down much further, ideally below 1C by 2150.

Illustration of permafrost with inset image of Prof Gustaf Hugelius

The high overshoot expected under current policies – with peak temperatures of about 3C – would thaw nearly all near-surface permafrost, make “severe and possibly abrupt” disruption to ocean circulation likely, and lead to widespread acidification, the report found. The latest scientific research suggests sea ice recovers more slowly than previously thought.

The report, written by 80 scientists brought together by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), found much of the damage would be permanent even if global temperatures were brought back down to 1.5C, such as glacier melt raising sea levels and threatening water security.

James Kirkham, a glaciologist at ICCI and the lead author of the report, said the cryosphere is “one of the most sensitive components of the climate system”, and the consequences of its loss affect the whole planet.

“This year, we’ve already seen one of the largest and most deadly ice rock avalanches ever recorded, on the Nepal-China border – it killed thousands of people and left damage equivalent to 10% of Nepal’s GDP in a single event,” said Kirkham. “Switzerland has lost 20% of its glacier ice in the last five years, and thousands of glaciers worldwide are expected to become extinct in the coming decade, every single year.”

Aerial view of flooded buildings covered in mud beside a brown river
Flooding and destruction near the Nepal-China border after a devastating ice and rock avalanche earlier this year. Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters
Mountain in Slovenia after melting of glacier.

Meanwhile, the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica, which are melting about six times faster today than in the 1990s, would continue to lose ice even in scenarios where overshoot is brief and temperature rise returns to 1.5C, the report found. The scientists said a safe, long-term temperature limit for polar ice sheets lies much closer to 1.0C of global heating, and possibly even lower.

“Snow and ice respond rapidly to every fraction of a degree of warming,” said Kirkham. “But most of these systems will take centuries or millennia to recover after overshoot, especially if tipping points are crossed that cause changes to become essentially irreversible.”

Last month, a UNEP report found the world must cut emissions by 18% by 2030 and by 45% by 2035 to have a good chance of keeping temperatures from rising 1.7C above preindustrial levels. It found there were “no good outcomes” of remaining above 1.5C.

Two hikers look out at a melting glacier in a mountainous area, its white area overtaken by brown rock
Hikers at the melting Plaine Morte glacier in western Switzerland. Glaciers in the Alps, Rockies, Iceland and Scandinavia could lose more than 90% of their ice mass under current climate policies. Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images

The cryosphere report found that current policies, which will result in 2.8C of global heating, would reduce the mass of glacier ice to below 10% in the Rockies, Alps, Iceland and Scandinavia. If warming was limited to 1.5C, about 20-35% of the mass would remain.

In the Hindu Kush Himalayas, where glaciers are a source of water for nearly a quarter of humanity, current policies will leave just 41% of the ice mass. If warming was limited to 1.5C, 83% would remain.

Bill Hare, a climate scientist and the CEO of Climate Analytics, a policy institute, who was not involved in the report, said: “Ice sheets melting six times faster than 30 years ago, sea ice and mountain glaciers disappearing at record speed, sea levels inexorably rising, the life-giving polar oceans acidifying: all irreversible now on human timescales, all laden with worldwide consequences, and all taking climate impacts past limits of adaptability.”

He added: “Every government minister and every fossil fuel executive who’s ever succeeded in watering down climate action can look at this report and see how their actions have fundamentally damaged the world we live in.”

Canadian records from November 6, 2026. #Canada

— Don Sutherland (@donsutherland1.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T12:36:17.125Z

#Norfolk, VA has seen 5.51" (140.0 mm) of rain so far today. That washes away the daily record of 3.05" (77.5 mm) from 1977. It also sets a new November monthly record. #vawx

— Don Sutherland (@donsutherland1.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T22:51:45.280Z

The preliminary global mean surface temperatures for November 5 was 14.820C (ERA5). That would break the daily record of 14.531C from 2024. It would also surpass the pre-2026 November monthly mark for the fifth consecutive day. #ClimateChange

— Don Sutherland (@donsutherland1.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T05:40:00.805Z

We would expect the 2026 record to exceed the 2023 record by about 0.1C given the current planetary warming rate of ~0.3C/decade. We will see if that happens.

— Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T17:01:49.927Z

"Democrats stayed quiet on climate. Now it’s time to act" | My new commentary for @thebulletin.org:thebulletin.org/2026/11/demo…

— Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T20:49:10.525Z

With accelerating sea level rise causing major headaches in Florida, the state just voted to slash a key way to fund adaptation efforts. This is sure to cause trouble, @harrisalexc.bsky.social reports.

— Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T16:56:12.031Z

Last week was the worst king tide South Florida had ever seen. It's a trend supercharged by sea level rise, the "moon wobble" and more.I crosschecked the moderate flood days at Virginia Key tide gauge against king tides vs storms. Thanks to @bmcnoldy.bsky.social for the second set of eyes!

— Alex Harris (@harrisalexc.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T19:32:54.775Z

In case you missed my big November El Niño update, the full 90+ minute recording is now available (it's long, but information and data-packed–so consider using YouTube's auto-transcript feature to find segments of interest). Lots of good questions today!

— Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T23:38:53.000Z

"Climate skeptics used AI to review their work. It told them they were biased." by @jessimckenzi.bsky.social: thebulletin.org/2026/10/clim…#Deniers #Koonin #McKitrick #Curry #Christy #Spencer

— Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T00:35:59.517Z

According to ERA5 reanalysis, Florida had its wettest October on record (1940-present).

— Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T17:05:17.531Z

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