Extreme Temperature Diary- Friday October 9th, 2020/ Main Topic: Summer Weather Is Lengthening, Invading Fall’s Territory

The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Summer Weather Is Lengthening, Invading Fall’s Territory

Dear Diary. The title of today’s subject means that there are consequences. Just ask people in the Florida Panhandle that saw Hurricane Michael in 2018. That system rode in on a carpet of record heat that extended from the Southeast into the Middle Atlantic area during October. Now ask the people of Louisiana, who are about to get whacked by Hurricane Delta later today. Warm late summer weather has extended into October across the South from 2018-2020, making the Gulf Coast susceptible for hurricanes later in the fall.

I’ll have much more on Delta on today’s post, but first here is Climate Central’s latest assessment on lengthening summers:

https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/resources/lingering-summer-warmth

Lingering Summer Warmth

OCT 7, 2020

Summer warmth is creeping into our fall season, causing changes to natural events such as migration and hibernation while presenting yet more challenges to American farmers.

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EXPERTS TO INTERVIEW | METHODOLOGY

KEY CONCEPTS

  • A Climate Central analysis found that summer warmth is intruding upon our colder seasons, with 50% (122) of the cities analyzed recording summer temperatures that last a week or more longer than they did 50 years ago. 
  • The intrusion of summer warmth into our colder seasons is presenting a challenge for native plant and animal species whose life cycles are scheduled around the once-reliable seasonal changes of the temperate North American climate. 
  • Lingering warmth has implications for fall harvests and agriculture. Colder temperatures help to keep many invasive and pest species at bay, so the invasion of summer warmth into our colder seasons could favor crop weeds and pests— potentially  resulting in losses for farmers.
  • While a longer growing season can mean more time for growing and harvesting crops, rising temperatures and other climate change impacts have a damaging effect on U.S. agriculture.
Last Day Above Threshold

Last Day Above Threshold

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Shifting Seasons

Shifting Seasons

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Data Download (CSV)

A recent analysis found that average fall temperatures are increasing due to our warming climate. This week, Climate Central found that summer temperatures are lingering longer, increasingly intruding on the fall season. The analysis looked at the last calendar day when local temperatures reached their average daily summer high. Of the 242 cities analyzed across the U.S, 77% (186) recorded their last day of summer-like temperatures an average of three or more days later since 1970 with half (122) lasting a week or more longer. The largest changes were reported in the Gulf region: Florida and Texas top the list with Miami, Lubbock, and San Angelo extending into the year by an average of 45, 25, and 24 days respectively since 1970.

The hallmarks of our shifting spring phenology can be most noticeable, such as earlier floral bloom and snow melt, but we know that delayed autumnal temperatures also have consequences for ecosystems. The intrusion of summer warmth into colder seasons presents a significant challenge for native plant and animal species whose life cycles are scheduled around the once-reliable seasonal changes. For instance, natural tactics to withstand cold temperatures (known as ‘overwintering’) are pushed back, meaning later migrationhibernation and leaf drop.

A longer frost-free season spells trouble for allergy sufferers, but it could mean more time for growing and harvesting crops ーan average of two extra weeks since 1970. While this may be a possible benefit to some farmers and crops in some locations, there are numerous other impacts of climate change on agriculture such as water stressdepleted crop yields, and risks for farm workers due to excessive heat, and losses from increases in extreme weather events.

Colder temperatures are what keeps many pest and invasive species at bay, so retreating cold could also favor the survival of more mosquitoesticks (and the diseases they carry), as well as crop pests and weeds. Natural ecosystems are complex and intervening to either conserve a beloved species or suppress the growth of an unfavorable one may not be within our power. Our best hope to stabilize our climate is by significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

POTENTIAL LOCAL STORY ANGLES

Are there migratory species that visit my area?

Climate change is threatening migratory species in a number of ways, in addition to widespread habitat degradation. You can find out if migratory species visit a national park near you by visiting the National Park Service (NPS) website. You can also explore a host of tools on BirdCast, developed by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Journey North provides maps of Fall 2020 sightings of a selection of popular species, such as the monarch butterfly and the bald eagle.

How is climate change affecting farmers near me?

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) coordinates regional ‘Climate hubs’ to disseminate region-specific, scientific insights relating to climate change to agricultural producers. You can find out what’s important to farmers in your region by checking out your region’s homepage or contacting your hub’s coordinator. 

When does fall foliage appear in my area?

Fall foliage typically peaks between late September and late October. Check out the Smoky Mountains Fall Foliage Prediction Map for a more precise prediction of when the leaves are expected to turn in your area.

LOCAL EXPERTS 

There are several government bureaus with local agencies that work towards preserving native species and ecosystems while managing invasive ones. You can get in touch with local experts in your area through the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as well as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The SciLine service, 500 Women Scientists or the press offices of local universities may be able to connect you with local scientists who have expertise on the impacts of a warming fall season in your area. The American Association of State Climatologists is a professional scientific organization composed of all 50 state climatologists.

NATIONAL EXPERTS 

METHODOLOGY

Daily temperature data from 1970-2019 were obtained from the Applied Climate Information System. Thresholds were calculated by finding the average summer maximum temperature from 1970-2019 and rounding that number to the nearest five degrees. For example, the average summer maximum temperature (1970-2019) in Abilene is 93.4°F so the appropriate threshold would be 95°F. Only 242 of our 244 stations are included in summary statements due to large data gaps in St. Johnsbury, Vt. and Wheeling, W. Va.

Today I will be listing items in association with Delta below. The most recent items, which I will be updating frequently, will be at the top of this list:

Here is more climate and weather news from Friday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:

(If you like these posts and my work please contribute via the PayPal widget, which has recently been added to this site. Thanks in advance for any support.) 

Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”

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