The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track global extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: U.S. Average Temperature Summer Forecast
Dear Diary. Today is the last day of boreal spring or meteorological spring. We are about to enter Summer 2022, which like recent summers has become more dreaded due to the climate change phenomena of more heat waves and ramped up tropical activity. Summer should only be about sun and fun and eventually can be if we work hard towards a more sustainable world.
At the very start of summer, it’s time for me to make another attempt at a forecast for average seasonal temperatures in the U.S. This forecast will be very broad and not specific for any one state comprising the continental United States (or lower 48 states).
So how will boreal Summer 2022 stack up compared to long term temperature averages across the United States? Will we continue to see the climate crisis signature of warmer than average conditions? Let’s try to make a forecast as usual at the start of a new season.
So how did the forecast work out for Spring 2022? Here is a link to the post for that forecast:
By June 7th the National Center for Environmental Information will finish their assessment for Spring 2022, so our verification is not complete as of June 1st. Let’s do fill in ranking numbers with 1 being the coldest and 128 warmest for a verification for months during 2022, which have already been assessed:
Here are my two cents for a broad, rough forecast for the U.S. for Spring 2022, which I guarantee to be warmer than this past winter, of course, as the amount of daylight increases across the Northern Hemisphere. First, I like to look at water temperature anomalies surrounding North America just before the start of a season to get a sense of how much potential heat can be added to the atmosphere across the continent. Here is what we see:
Water temperatures are mainly above average across the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, but cooler than average across the West Coast. We also continue to see a healthy, cool La Niña across the equatorial Pacific. These anomalies have not changed much since the beginning of last winter. The way they have behaved during the spring leads me to believe that they will continue to have a positive effect on temperatures.
Second, I like to look at the strength of the Hudson Bay low or polar vortex at the start of any season:
This time around we see don’t see a vortex around Hudson Bay. Instead, we see a very convoluted pattern around North America. This leads me to believe that most of the U.S. should see above average temperatures. Meteorological models look average for the northern 2/3rds of the country through mid-June, though. Overall, what we see here should produce above average conditions for the lower 48 states.
Here is the National Weather Service forecast for Summer 2022:
I can’t disagree much with their assessment for this summer, especially after noting what has been happening with La Niña and the Hudson Bay Low. Another big factor is the ongoing western drought, which unfortunately should raise temperature averages. This is factored into the NWS outlook. I do disagree with their assessment for the Northeast. It looks like cool Canadian air masses will be penetrating the area from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast through most of June, although this could change as we move into July and August.
Overall, Summer 2022 will probably verify well above average looking at trends from the rest of the planet.
Last, we can get another clue looking at prior National Center for Environmental Information ranking and temperature record count data. For this I like to drag out that “Record Scoreboard” (updated through 5/31/2022):
Temperature averages have only been slightly above climatological normals since the beginning of this year. Record totals were on the warm side for Spring 2022. It’s cringeworthy to think that once we see another strong El Niño any cool months like April 2022 will be all warm with blue colors disappearing from my charts.
I’m predicting that all three summer months should be above average. (Here is the link to avg. rankings per year for the lower 48 states since 1895):
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings
Not all seasons in the near future will see above average temperatures, but seasonal forecasters are beginning to ”chuck it,” discounting colder than average scenarios due to carbon pollution.
Again, here are all seasons ranked for the last decade:
Here is my bottom-line forecast for Summer 2022:
“I think that this winter will be ranked well above average. Carbon pollution is definitely making below average seasons rarer. I’m going to forecast that the Summer 2022 ranking will be around 110 + or – 10, with above average confidence given all of the factors on this post. Due to the forecast anomalous warmth, more serious climate crisis events, such as historic heatwaves and hurricanes, will be quite likely this summer.“
My forecast for Winter 2021/22 of a ranking of 110 was spot on, and we will see if my forecast ranking of 100 for Spring 2022 verified in a few days.
Notice that the past seven summers had a ranking at or above 101. My summer forecast for 2022 is similar to that of most of the last nine summers except for that of 2014.
As of 2022 the top ranking for any month or season would be 128 since climatological rankings for the United States started in the year 1895. Carbon pollution is definitely making below average seasons rarer. As stated, I’m going to guess that Summer 2022 gets ranked around 110 + or – 10, and with above average confidence given all of the factors in this post.
We will see how this forecast pans out around September 7th, 2022.
Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks:
Here is more climate and weather news from Tuesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”