Extreme Temperature Diary- Wednesday September 14th, 2022/Main Topic: Prospects for Another Significant U.S. Heatwave During September

The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Prospects for Another Significant U.S. Heatwave During September

Dear Diary. We are now in the last few days of summer with the last-named heatwave, Falkor, in the rear-view mirror. So, we won’t have to contend with dangerous heat until 2023, right? Unfortunately, wrong:

The good news here is that the building heat dome going towards the autumnal equinox next week won’t be as strong as indicated on my above tweet. Forecasts from the GFS this year have been mostly too hot, which modelers need to work on. So, for today’s purposes we will use the European model.

Here is the latest forecast, indicating that we will see a strong heat dome by Tuesday over the central and southern Plains:

The orientation of this ridge will serve as a heat pump, pushing anomalously warm air northward into the Midwest and Northeast:

I’m pretty sure that we will see a CAT1 or CAT2 heatwave using my scaling criteria. Whether or not we see a dangerous named CAT3 is up in the air, which will depend upon the National Weather Service issuing heat warnings, not just advisories. It looks like humidity will make enough of a comeback to see some of these.

Here are some forecast temperatures for 9/20, which look like they could be for any 7/20 east of the Rockies:

I have no doubt that we will see numerous records set next week.

One other question is whether or not the ridge can break down enough across the eastern U.S. so that it won’t be affected from a hurricane developing from tropical depression seven. Today it looks like T.D. 7 will be another miss, but that’s not a given:

In this day and age of added heat ramped up by climate change, are early fall summer-like heat waves becoming more common? Yes, of course. We will add this coming heatwave to the stats. I seriously doubt that this coming heatwave will match the one I witnessed during 2019, which lasted into early October. That one was wild in my corner of the world:

I’ll have more on this September heat in the coming days.

Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks:

Here is some more August and Summer 2022 climatology:

Here is more climate and weather news from Wednesday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”

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