Extreme Temperature Diary- Saturday October 21st, 2023/Main Topic: A Much Hotter than Average Summer Outlook for Australia

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The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: A Much Hotter than Average Summer Outlook for Australia

Dear Diary. I keep getting reports nearly every day of dangerous record spring heat from different locations across Australia. This is what we should expect because of climate change and especially because of a very strong El Niño. El Niño Pacific patterns tend to bring dry hot weather to Australia:

Here is a taste of record temperatures occurring across the island continent the last few days:

As far as a heat dome across Australia goes, we already see one stubborn anomalous ridge building across the continent this week, but at least there are some cold fronts still working their way northward:

Here is a port from the Australian Meteorological Bureau indicating what to expect during the upcoming hot summer season from November through January:

Australian climate outlooks (bom.gov.au)

Climate outlook for November to February

Issued 19 October 2023

Long-range forecast overview

  • November to January rainfall is likely to be below average across areas of southern, western and northern Australia, including most of Queensland.
  • November to January maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average for most of Australia.
  • November to January maximum and minimum temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to be unusually high (in the top 20% of the climatological record) for most of Australia.
  • The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including the El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events currently underway, and record warm oceans globally.

Drier than median November to January likely for western, northern and southern Australia.

  • For November, below median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia, except for the far north and south-east of Queensland, eastern regions of NSW, and south-west Tasmania.
  • November to January rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below median for most of Australia, except for central interior WA, interior NT, eastern SA, south-west Queensland, most of NSW, eastern Victoria, and south-west and north-east parts of Tasmania.
  • Past accuracy of November to January long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for parts of central and areas to the north of the Great Australian Bight.

Rainfall maps (toggle-select to enlarge) MORE MAPS

Warmer November to January days and nights for almost all of Australia

  • For November, and November to January, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.
  • For November to January, most of Australia is at least twice as likely as normal to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for central and western WA, northern NT, and central Queensland. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
  • For November, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Australia, except for most of SA, western and central Victoria, south-west NSW, and northern and central coastal regions of Queensland.  
  • For November to January, above median minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, excluding southern SA, western VIC and north- eastern Queensland where the chance of above or below median temperatures is roughly equal.
  • For November to January, broad areas of Australia are at least 2 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times as likely for much of eastern NSW; parts of central and northern WA; the Top End of the NT; and central Queensland away from coastal regions. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of November to January periods from 1981 to 2018.
  • Past accuracy of the November to January long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia, excluding the central NT, where it has been low. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia but decreases to low to very low for the northern Kimberley in WA, central NT, and a small area of central Queensland.

Maximum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge) MORE MAPS

Climate influences

The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate drivers:

  • El Niño is underway. Models indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is possible, with sea surface temperatures remaining above El Niño thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn 2024. El Niño typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for eastern Australia. As we head into summer, the below average rainfall signal contracts, with only parts of north-east and the far south-east of Australia typically seeing below average rainfall during this time. El Niño also typically results in warmer than usual spring days for the southern two-thirds of Australia, with summer also having a weak tendency towards warmer days across much of the eastern half of the country.  
  • A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. All models indicate that it will continue into at least the end of December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
  • When a positive IOD and an El Niño occur concurrently, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.
  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive. Forecasts indicate it will move to neutral in the coming week.
  • Australia’s climate has warmed by ~1.48 °C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

The Bureau’s climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice, and land surface processes and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and SAM in its long-range forecasts.

Of course, I’ll be posting more notes on Australian heat per Maximiliano Herrera such as the ones in our next daily section:

Here are some other “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

Here is some more brand-new September 2023 climatology:

Here is More Climate and Weather News from Saturday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Today’s News on Sustainable, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

More from the Weather Department:

More on the Environment:

More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:

If you like these posts and my work on record temperature ratios, please contribute via my PayPal widget on this site. Thanks in advance for any support. 

Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

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