Extreme Temperature Diary- Thursday August 27th, 2026/Main Topic: Nepal Climate Tragedy and Glacial Retreat

Update: Today’s catastrophic flood along the Nepal-Tibet border was initially suspected to be a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). But new satellite analysis points instead to a massive glacier collapse and ice-rock avalanche that blocked a river before unleashing a devastating surge. 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-08-26T20:11:06.937Z

A massive glacier collapse triggered the deadly #Nepal #Tibet disaster. Some background: The glaciers in this #Langtang region have lost ~41% of their area since ~1815 – and the rate of loss has increased 4X since the 1970s – as these high elevations warm roughly 2X as fast as the global average 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T22:16:06.429Z

I'll host a short-notice, "pop-up" livestream TODAY, Aug 27 at 4pm PT to discuss:1) What is known about the human impacts and geophysical causes of the Himalayan glacier collapse disaster, and2) Severe humid heatwave/dry t-storms/fire risk in California

Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T21:32:48.000Z

Glaciers in the Himalayas are rapidly retreating under climate change, leading to widespread formation and expansion of glacial lakes and increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods. To date, more than 388 GLOF events have been documented in the region 😰Source ⬇️

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-08-26T20:15:42.345Z

Update: this horrific and devastating event was not caused by a GLOF but something else, similarly worsened by climate change – a huge chunk of ice that fell off a glacier and plunged into a river 😱 www.nytimes.com/interactive/…

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-08-27T12:05:30.691Z

Rock Landslide and Glacial Collapse Likely Caused Floods in Nepal and Tibet, Scientists Say – The New York Times

Landslide Along With Glacial Collapse Likely Set Off Nepal Flooding, Scientists Say

New satellite imagery added to scientists’ understanding of the events that precipitated the deadly flooding in Nepal and Tibet.

Leo Sands
Laura Chung
Robin George Andrews

By Leo SandsLaura Chung and Robin George Andrews

Scientists piecing together satellite imagery and seismological data said on Thursday that a high-altitude landslide coinciding with a glacial collapse likely caused the deadly flash flooding in Nepal and Tibet.

Glaciologists and geologists had already determined that an enormous chunk of a glacier had snapped off on Wednesday morning. On Thursday, a group of scientists analyzing the events preceding the flooding said that newly available images, captured at a time with less cloud cover, show that an enormous chunk of the mountainous bedrock beneath that glacier had also given way.

“The rock that the glacier was sitting on collapsed,” said Kristen Cook, a geomorphologist at the Université Grenoble Alpes in France. The combined force of the collapse sent millions of metric tons of rock and ice into the valley below, she added.

“It was a much larger collapse than we were initially able to see in the satellite imagery,” she said.

The deluge of rock and ice, which pulverized into mud and water as it surged down the mountainside, was so powerful that the U.S. Geological Survey registered the landslide as a magnitude 5.2 seismic event.

That this event registered as an earthquake is not unusual. Whenever a huge amount of energy is transferred to the Earth’s crust — from an earthquake, an asteroid strike, or even a crowd of people jumping up and down at a concert — seismic waves are produced, which are detected by seismometers all over the planet.

This debris flow would have released the same amount of energy as 1,000 tons of TNT. “Perhaps more importantly than energy, we can directly compute the mass from our force estimate. This comes out as nearly 400 million metric tons,” said Stephen Hicks, a seismologist at University College London.

To put it another way, this landslide was comparable to 1,000 Empire State Buildings crashing down into the river valley simultaneously.

Warming temperatures caused by climate change may have destabilized the rock face, scientists said, but they added that it was too early to determine a precise cause.

The landslide and glacial collapse took place on the north face of Langtang Lirung, a Nepalese mountain near the border with Tibet, at an elevation of around 17,000 feet, according to the scientists.

“Essentially, a chunk of the mountainside collapsed,” said Daniel Shugar, a geologist at the University of Calgary in Canada who is part of the group.

Scientists are slowly building a more detailed picture of the chain of events that led to Wednesday’s flooding. Torrents swept through the Himalayan valleys between Nepal and the Tibet region of China, devastating villages, killing hundreds and leaving more than 1,000 people missing.

According to Dr. Cook, the flow of rock and ice incorporated water and river sediment as it tumbled downstream along a network of rivers and tributaries, reaching dozens of miles from the site of the original landslide.

While the new imagery added to scientists’ understanding of the cause of the disaster, many questions remained. Among them is how much rock and ice was released by the landslide, and why the volumes of floodwater were so huge.

Dibas Shrestha, an expert in hydrology and meteorology at Tribhuvan University in Nepal, said in an email that he “couldn’t even imagine the volume of ice-water-rock mix flow that we have witnessed downstream.” Videos taken at the Gyirong border crossing between China and Nepal show a wall of water overcoming the area.

One possibility, scientists say, is that the landslide created upstream river dams that eventually burst, unleashing an enormous gusher of water.

Mohan Bahadur Chand, a Himalayan glaciologist and assistant professor at Kathmandu University, said that one initial hypothesis is that accumulated debris temporarily blocked the Lhende River, leading to a catastrophic overflow.

As higher-resolution satellite imagery becomes available in the coming days, Dr. Chand said it could become clearer how much of the glacier had broken off and what other sediment had been swept into the water. From there, it could be possible to calculate the volume of water that had swept across the region, he said.

Judson Jones contributed reporting.

Leo Sands is a correspondent for the Breaking News Hub of The New York Times based in London.

Laura Chung is a Sydney-based reporter and researcher for The Times, covering Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific.

Super-duper El Niño? Warming oceans make the strength harder to measure. Emily Becker explains the new “yardstick” scientists are using to separate El Niño from long-term global warming trends. www.climate.us/news-feature…

Climate.us (@climate.us) 2026-08-27T19:48:37.691Z

"El Niño is being supercharged by climate change, study finds" by Doyle Rice for @usatoday.com: www.usatoday.com/story/news/w…[I appreciate the data & study, but differ with the authors on the interpretation as spelled out below]🧵

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T21:02:57.896Z

As we weather the intensifying current El Niño, remember what this new science tells us: "Our results suggest that the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños – two of the strongest in recent memory – may be harbingers of more extreme events to come as the planet warms.theconversation.com/galapagos-co…

Jonathan Overpeck (@greatlakespecktwo.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T18:37:37.316Z

Supplementing this thread with a reminder that the most recent IPCC assessment shows very little consensus as to whether or not El Niño events will increase in amplitude with warming:

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T20:46:28.612Z

In a previous study w/ Mark Cane & co using the Cane-Zebiak model of El Niño (michaelmann.net/sites/defaul…) we showed that natural (volcanic+solar) forcing leads to an uptick in amplitude of ENSO variability during the last two decades of 20th century that closely matches the pattern seen above.

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T20:07:02.479Z

Europe’s Heatwaves Are Putting Nuclear Power Under Pressure oilprice.com/Energy/Energ…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T09:21:33.529Z

continuation of assault on climate model projections by fossil fuel/climate denial lobby & attack dogs (Trump/GOP, Roger Pielke Jr. of Koch-funded think tank AEI and now failed academic and Trump appointee professional climate denier Dr. Matthew Wielicki). See: thebulletin.org/2026/05/sorr…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T16:36:39.187Z

"Why the 2026 hurricane season is so quiet" by Gareth McGrath for #StarNewsOnline: www.starnewsonline.com/story/weathe…[p.s. our own pre-season prediction called for a very quiet 10±3 named storms]

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T00:18:28.524Z

here's a link to our pre-season forecast: web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearch…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T00:19:03.263Z

Climate change is absolutely a national security concern, as literally decades of defense and intelligence community assessments have documented, until they began to be censored by Trump et al.I've summarized those assessments here:www.stripes.com/branches/arm…share.google/Pg4VKEKKezzQ…

Peter Gleick (@petergleick.bsky.social) 2026-08-26T22:38:26.562Z

‼️ Extreme Ocean Heatwave S FL🪸 Coral rescues are ongoing. NOAA: Highest Alert possible (Alert Level 2). Coral have now been under 17 weeks of heat stress, an event only 2nd to the unprecedented 2023 #heatwave. 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T13:49:14.118Z

Although it has dropped out of news in recent days, wildfire activity across western U.S. and SW Canada remains very high, with numerous large fires active. Fires are now more broadly distributed vs. early in the summer, stretching from central CA to southern BC & east to ID/MT.

Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T00:31:19.000Z

Remnants of Tropical Storm Iselle will send considerable mid- and upper-level moisture, and some marginal mid-level instability, toward CA over the next 48 hours. Expect "tropical skies," continued elevated humidity, & isolated light showers/very slight chance of t-storms. #CAwx

Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T00:24:28.000Z

Short-lived Tropical Storm Dolly is here, and it figures to be more boon (beneficial rains) than bane for the Caribbean islands. @irenesans.bsky.social and @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the details: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/08/trop…

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T18:53:24.384Z

🍂 In just 5 days Meteorological fall begins! 🍂 This summer will finish as the hottest on record in the US, so we deserve a big break. And it’s coming soon! In the next 3 months we lose – on average – 40 degrees near the Canadian border and 20 along the Gulf and West Coast! 🎉 #autumn🍁

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T13:20:39.986Z

Two upcoming data centres will emit 4.5 million tonnes of carbon a year when fully running, exceeding fossil fuel company ExxonMobil’s entire UK emissions.www.edie.net/two-data-cen…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T10:45:28.664Z

Costco distribution center goes off grid.Cheap reliable power for them and good PR.www.thecooldown.com/green-busine…

(@mr-yoyito.bsky.social) 2026-08-26T18:03:19.175Z

Plug-in solar panels are coming to a shop near you – here's what to knowbbc.com/news/article…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T08:05:37.687Z

US-Iran war spurs Europe, Asia to boost renewables www.reuters.com/business/ene…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T08:04:40.806Z

The Pembina institute has released a report demonstrating that under the UCP's current program for data centres, Albertans could see their electricity bills going up hundreds of dollars a year./1#abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

The Breakdown AB (@thebreakdownab.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T17:50:17.554Z

Good Energy launches solar payment plan to tackle up front cost barrier. Good Energy has partnered with Zopa Bank to launch a new finance offering for residential solar installations. utilityweek.co.uk/good-energy-…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-26T08:17:29.947Z

The NEM's first solar battery hybrid is sending power to the grid at 10pm, and helping reshape the energy game reneweconomy.com.au/the-nems-fir…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T10:42:32.751Z

US #nuclear regulator prepares to abandon a decades-old radiation safety rulewww.npr.org/2026/08/27/n…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T19:34:16.794Z

Just published: UK and England butterfly population indicators using UKBMS data. These show a long-term decline in the all-species index in the UK of 18% and a 37% decline for habitat specialists in the UK.Check out the full statistics here ⬇️ www.gov.uk/government/s…

UKBMS (@ukbms.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T13:00:54.373Z

Today I learned there's a website that can translate hieroglyphics from an image, and I'm amazed.Words spoken by Osiris… He says: "O you who come into being, may I drink of the water of the river. May I be among those who follow Osiris… I may drink of the cool water of the lake…

Peter Gleick (@petergleick.bsky.social) 2026-08-26T23:46:09.832Z

Even @nature.com pays their respects to Dolly Parton

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-08-27T12:02:07.950Z

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