Extreme Temperature Diary- Wednesday February 25, 2026/Main Topic: ‘Groundbreaking’ Model Can Calculate True Impact of Climate Change with Bad News for Europe

Handy new model can “compute the frequency, duration, intensity, spatial extent and other variables of extreme events. This allows researchers to analyse the extent to which emission-intensive actors such as states or companies are responsible for increasing climate damages and risks.”

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T14:54:18.156Z

‘Groundbreaking’ model can calculate true impact of climate change and it’s bad news for Europe | Euronews

‘Groundbreaking’ model can calculate true impact of climate change and it’s bad news for Europe

By Liam Gilliver

Researchers have created a new mathematical solution to analyse how emission-intensive actors are responsible for increasing climate damage.

A “groundbreaking” study has lifted the lid on just how much human-made climate change is impacting extreme weather across Europe.

Climate researcher Gottfried Kirchengast and his team at the University of Graz in Austria have developed a new method for computing the hazards from extreme events such as heat waves, floods and droughts.

Using a new mathematical solution, the model can be used to compute the frequency, duration, intensity, spatial extent and other variables of extreme events. This allows researchers to analyse the extent to which emission-intensive actors such as states or companies are responsible for increasing climate damages and risks.

“If suitable long-term climate data are available, the development of climate hazard metrics for extremes of interest can be tracked year by year and decade by decade – in European countries and any other region worldwide,” says Kirchengast.

How climate change is baking Europe

Researchers used the new method to investigate changes in extreme heat events in Austria and across Europe, using datasets of daily maximum temperatures from 1961 to 2024.

The threshold for “extreme” was taken as the temperature at each location that exceeded the daily values in the period from 1961 to 1990 by one per cent. For Austria, this was 30°C, in southern Spain it was over 35°C and in Finland it was around 25°C.

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The study, published in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes, found that the total extremity of heat in Austria and most regions of Central and Southern Europe has increased about tenfold in the current climate period from 2010-2024 compared to 1961-1990

“This massive increase in the total extremity metric goes far beyond its natural variability and shows the influence of human-made climate change with a clarity that even I as a climate researcher have never seen before,” says Kirchengast.

The cost of extreme weather

Thousands of deaths across Europe last summer were attributed to extreme heat, as temperatures soared to 40℃ across large parts of the continent and pushed several countries into drought.

Researchers at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine looked at 854 European cities and found that climate change was responsible for 68 per cent of the 24,400 estimated heat deaths during this period, having raised temperatures by up to 3.6°C.

2025’s extreme summer weather also sparked short-term economic losses of at least €43 billion, with total costs slated to hit a staggering €126 billion by 2029.

A study published back in September, led by Dr Sehrish Usman at the University of Mannheim in collaboration with European Central Bank (ECB) economists, found that heatwaves, droughts and floods affected a quarter of all EU regions during the 2025 summer.

The immediate losses amount to 0.26 per cent of the EU’s economic output in 2024, but the study’s authors stress that these estimates are likely conservative as they don’t include compound impacts when extreme events occur simultaneously, such as heatwaves and droughts.

Talked about the record Southwest warmth in my post today, and in fact Pueblo set an all time monthly record high of 83F.

Alan Gerard (@wxmanms1.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T05:33:25.127Z

Denver days this winter (since Dec. 1):50°+: 58 days (most on record)60°+: 37 days (most on record)70°+: 7 days (most on record)#COwx

Chris Bianchi (@bianchiweather.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T21:19:52.481Z

🥶 Crushing cold in Greenland tonight!!Forecast is -88°F (60° below normal) which would be only 5°F higher than the all-time Greenland low of -93°F. 🥶

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T03:31:27.946Z

Water scarcity is no longer a passing crisis. In many regions demand now permanently exceeds supply – a condition experts call water bankruptcy, @JulianCribb writes.#climate #water #environment #population #sustainability

Pearls and Irritations (@johnmenadue.com) 2026-02-24T22:00:50.013132+00:00

How a greening Arctic might be kick-starting a dangerous feedback loop #Climate

Climate Tracker (@climate.skyfleet.blue) 2026-02-24T09:45:57.912Z

Global Warming ➡️ Less Permafrost ➡️ More Rain ➡️ More Land Slides#Climate

Patrick Bujok (@pbujok.bsky.social) 2026-02-22T17:31:17.923Z

The stupidity. It burns!www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T18:32:50.583Z

"In a whole number of ways — the defunding of the science, the defunding of the infrastructure for assistance — the Trump administration is truly putting Americans in harm’s way," says climate scientist Michael Mann.

Truthout (@truthout.org) 2026-02-24T23:30:05.462Z

From 1950–1995, max of one Caribbean hurricane in Oct-Nov in any year. But in 1996-2024, the region had two+ hurricanes in Oct-Nov nine times. Causes: increased SSTs and Potential Intensity, decreased vertical wind shear, increased mid-level relative humidity, stronger tropical waves.

Dr. Jeff Masters (@drjeffmasters.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T15:16:52.968Z

Chronic ocean heating fuels ‘staggering’ loss of marine life, study finds #Climate

Climate Tracker (@climate.skyfleet.blue) 2026-02-25T10:31:14.040Z

a video highlighting just how important NCAR is, from a bunch of scientists who use this incredible public resource daily

miriam nielsen (@zentouro.info) 2026-02-25T17:08:35.813Z

The US NSF has put out a "dear colleagues" letter that is essentially a yard sale list for @ncar-ucar.bsky.socialIt asks questions such as, who'd like to take over some of NCAR's programs? Is anyone interested in commercial use of the Mesa Lab? If you have thoughts, send them to NSF_NCAR@nsf.gov

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-02-25T15:36:54.531Z

As @amywestervelt.bsky.social has pointed out … There's *always* as #climate connection. www.fastcompany.com/91490280/eps…

Jason Dove Mark (@jasondovemark.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T18:53:07.220Z

Listen to this guy… besides being devilishly handsome lol… he has something very surprising to say.

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T16:59:32.772Z

Every job is a climate job. Young Vancouver event planner revels in the challenge of her role @climatedesk.org @katharinehayhoe.com @zeroemissions.bsky.social www.nationalobserver.com/2026/02/23/o…

Patty Lane (@pattylane.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T22:40:27.405Z

🔥 The huge 25,000 acre #fire burning in the #Everglades has been sending smoke south. That will change overnight and Wednesday. Get ready for the smell of #smoke into Central #Florida tomorrow. This fire is a preview of things to come this spring due to our worst #drought in 25 years. 🔥

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T22:32:12.918Z

Hurricane Melissa was upgraded to 190 mph today, tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record! NHC says: “Based on a blend of the satellite estimates, flight-level wind and dropsonde data, and the fact that the area of strongest winds was likely notsampled… 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T17:46:08.893Z

#Scotland’s plans to achieve its First Carbon Budget (2026-2030) are largely ‘credible’ with only some risk, climate advisors have concluded. www.edie.net/scotland-in-…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T09:30:40.036Z

' #Scotland is an energy powerhouse. It produces far more energy than it requires for its domestic consumption. Yet due to Westminster’s control of energy policy, Scottish consumers endure some of the highest energy bills in Europe. 'www.thenational.scot/politics/258…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T09:32:42.557Z

'The End of Baseload Power as We Know It'"Growing renewable penetration reshaping base-load generation economics.California renewables plus storage steadily displacing fossil generation.New nuclear looks economically uncompetitive."oilprice.com/Energy/Energ…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T22:49:50.497Z

Sizewell C #nuclear power to cost almost double today’s prices."Sizewell is an appalling waste of electricity consumers’ and taxpayers’ money."www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T09:19:19.827Z

#Nuclear Waste Leaks show need for focus on #renewables. Dounreay decommissioning programme will continue until the 2070s during which time some £7.9billion will be spent. After the recent leak Dounreay says there may be other unrevealed hazards.'www.pressreader.com/uk/the-natio…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T09:29:21.463Z

The Dangers of Ionising Radiation: A Scientific Guide to Radiation Risks for Government Agencies, Legal Professionals and Medical CliniciansLink free first 30 pages.Recent evidence showing increased incidences of leukemias near #nuclear reactors.ethicspress.com/products/the…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-02-25T14:13:45.273Z

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