The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😜
Here is a new feature for this blog, which I will add daily. This is the latest inciteful Green News Report from my friends Desi Doyen and Brad Friedman at Progressive Voices. Hit ‘continue reading,’ listen, then hit return to see my daily topics:
Main Topic: U.S. Average Temperature Forecast for Summer 2026
Dear Diary. It will be the start of meteorological summer by June 1st, so once again as we do on this blog, it is time to make a forecast for the coming season. As forecast, Spring 2026 had well above average temperatures for the lower 48 states, another sign of anthropogenic climate change.
At the very start of summer, it’s time for me to make another attempt at a forecast for average seasonal temperatures in the U.S. This forecast will be very broad and not specific for any one state comprising the continental United States (or lower 48 states).
So how did the forecast work out for Spring 2026? Here is a link to the post for that forecast:
By June 10th the National Center for Environmental Information will finish their climatological assessment for Spring 2026 so our verification is not complete as of May 28th. Let’s do fill in ranking numbers with 1 being the coldest and 132 warmest for a verification for months during 2026, which have already been assessed:
Spring 2026 should be a top 5 ranked spring since 1895 looking at numbers coming for March and April and the fact that May has been well above average so far. March was the most anomalously warm month in U.S. history. A raking of 132 would be the warmest ranking out of 132 years of lower 48 rankings since 1895.
Here are my two cents for a broad, rough forecast for the U.S. for Summer 2026, which I guarantee to be warmer than this past spring, of course, as the amount of daylight increases across the Northern Hemisphere.
First, I like to look at spikes on graphs because they can tell us something. Last year we had a slight downtick in temperature averages last summer, but as one can see, the overall trend is for warmth. Looking at trends, there should be a slight uptick from 2025:
Second, I like to look at water temperature anomalies surrounding North America just before the start of a season to get a sense of how much potential anomalous heat can be added to the atmosphere across the continent. Here is what we see:
Anomalously warm seas surround most of North America. It has cooled some off of the East Coast some since the last season began in March. Also, cooler than average waters extend southward from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest waters. Mostly warmer than average conditions around the rest of North America lead me to think that SST influence will be a positive factor for this coming season. Also, it appears that the current ENSO Pacific is moving towards a strong El Niño phase. This usually means that the polar vortex over Canada will get weaker relative to average with time. This should be a warming factor this season.
We do note that the first two weeks of June will be warm across the West and northern tier of the United States, so summer will get off to a very warm start there. The South will get off to a cool start and may not have a very hot summer looking at most guidance.
Here is the National Weather Service forecast for Summer 2026:
The NWS forecast for the South might be a bit too toasty and the Midwest too cool, but overall, I think that this summer’s ranking should verify a tad above that of Summer 2025, which was 120.
Next, we can get another clue looking at prior National Center for Environmental Information ranking and temperature record count data. For this I like to drag out my “Record Scoreboard” (updated through 05/28/2026):
For these data sets all monthly ratios of > 10 to 1 DHMX to DLMN or > 10 to 1 DLMN to DHMX are in bold type. The rankings are for the lower 48 states with the warmest ranking since 1895 of average temperatures being 132 and 1 being the coldest as of 2026. Blue colors represent cold months and red warm. Those months and years with counts close to a 1 to 1 ratio of highs to lows are colored black. Boldly red-, blue-, or purple-colored months, such as January 2020 and October 2024, have ratios of >10 to 1 daily record highs to lows or <1 to 10 daily record highs to lows, and are either historically hot or cold, most of which have made news. All-time record hot or cold ranked months are highlighted in purple. I’ve subtracted Alaska record counts so we can better compare apples to apples with record totals and rankings for the lower 48 states.
Looking at trends, warm months should continue, but it looks like we are due for a cooler than average month like that of January 2025. Will that month be during this summer? Possibly, but I rather doubt that.
I’m predicting that June 2026 will be above average with July and August 2026 also being above average. Here is the link to avg. rankings per year for the lower 48 states since 1895:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings
Just about every season in the future will see above average temperatures, so seasonal forecasters are beginning to “chuck it,” discounting colder than average scenarios due to carbon pollution.
Here are all seasons ranked for the last decade:
The last time we had an above average summer season ranked as low as near 100 was in 2019. An average ranking on the above chart would be 66 as of 2026. Will Sunmer 2026 buck this trend? I think not.
Here is my bottom-line forecast for Summer 2026:
“I think that Summer 2026 will be ranked well above average. I’m going to forecast that the Summer 2026 ranking will be around 125 but possibly as low as 115, with above average confidence given all of the factors written within this post. It should be slightly warmer than Summer 2025, which came in as 13 warmest with a ranking of 120.
My forecast for Winter 2025/26 was for a ranking of 120 + or – 10 rankings was 10 rankings too cool but within my range. That verification was at 130, or the 3rd warmest winter on record. The warmest was that of 2024/25.
We will see how well my forecast ranking of near 120 + or – 10 rankings for Spring worked out in a few days.
As of 2026 the top ranking for any month or season would be 132 since climatological rankings for the United States started in the year 1895. Carbon pollution is definitely making below average seasons so rare that they are about to be a thing of the past. As stated, I’m going to guess that Summer 2026 gets ranked around 125 but possibly as low as 115 and as high as 130, and with above average confidence given all of the factors in this post.
Have a fantastic summer.
Here are some “ETs” recorded from around the U.S. the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Here is More Climate News from Thursday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)