Extreme Temperature Diary- Wednesday September 23rd, 2026/Main Topic: Extreme Heat Caused by ‘Super El Niño’ Could Kill Over 450,000 People in Coming Months

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I discussed the "Godzilla" El Niño and how it's likely to combine with human-caused warming to supercharge extreme weather in the months ahead with @caitrionaperry.bsky.social of #BBCNews, live from #ClimateWeekNYC

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T00:06:30.799Z

Extreme Heat Caused by ‘Super El Niño’ Could Kill Over 450,000 People in Coming Months: Report | Common Dreams

Extreme Heat Caused by ‘Super El Niño’ Could Kill Over 450,000 People in Coming Months: Report

“This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives.”

Jake Johnson

A report published Wednesday by researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that extreme heat fueled by this year’s “Super El Niño” event could kill more than 450,000 people in the coming months, in addition to deaths from drought, wildfires, and other extreme weather.

The report notes that “anomalously warm conditions” caused by the record-shattering El Niño—which refers to the warming of ocean-surface temperatures in the Pacific—“will resemble the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future… and will lead to 44% more extremely hot days than we would expect in a normal year.”

Climate Impact Lab researchers projected that the extreme heat will result in 451,000 more lives lost through February 2027, compared to a typical year.

“This is about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood,” the new report observes. “With current forecasts suggesting El Niño will remain in place through spring 2027, we expect all of these numbers to grow even higher, particularly as impacts such as higher-than-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will linger into June and July.”

Nigeria is expected to see the largest number of El Niño-related deaths over roughly the next five months, at 31,400. Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil will see more than 10,000 deaths each through February, according to the Climate Impact Lab.

“This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said in a statement. “This report allows decisionmakers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.”

The impact lab’s report describes this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from our future,” noting that “it is bringing temperatures climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future.”

“Twenty years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal,” said Tamma Carleton, faculty head of research for the Climate Impact Lab and co-author of the new report. “We don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency.”

The report was released shortly after United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned in his final address to the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday that “a supersized El Niño” is “speeding straight for humanity.”

“As tragic events have shown, impacts are arriving sooner, hitting harder, and spreading further than many anticipated,” said Guterres. “Now we face a near-certain breach of the 1.5°C limit.”

On Saturday, The Washington Post observed, the average ocean-surface temperature in a portion of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean reached 3.05°C, “the highest peak sea surface temperature anomaly on record.”

“The record anomalous reading occurred two months earlier in the year than the previous peak in November 2015 and an El Niño in 1877 that contributed to a famine that wiped out 3 to 4% of the global population,” the Post added.

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.

Jake Johnson

Jake Johnson is a senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams.

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Huge El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths in next six months. www.theguardian.com/environment/…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:27:41.312Z

António Guterres, UN secretary general, has criticised “immoral” fossil fuel companies for their “grotesque greed”, warned that we have “opened the gates of hell” and hailed the new “clean energy age”. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:29:50.659Z

UN chief says 'big oil' treats atmosphere as open sewer.#climatewww.afp.com/en/un-chief-…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:53:00.691Z

How sea level rise poses an ‘existential threat’ to humans, heritage, nature.(and coastal #nuclear reactors, spent fuel and intermediate level rad-waste stores, infrastructure)#climate www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-ho…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:49:04.263Z

Death cult does its thing.#AI #climatewww.scientificamerican.com/article/trum…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:54:54.114Z

Seven of the nine Planetary Boundaries are now at their highest recorded levels of transgression. “We do not have the luxury of time, but we do have the knowledge, capacity and solutions to change course.” www.stockholmresilience.org/5.17909f491a…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:13:29.006Z

Can't make it? NO PROBLEM: www.youtube.com/live/R6tFJiz…We will be live streaming and the event will live on the @standupforscience.net youtube page!

Colette Delawalla, PhD (@cdelawalla.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T10:40:52.224Z

I'll be talking w/ @caitrionaperry.bsky.social on #BBCNews at 6:30pm ET (11:30pm London local time) about the record El Niño, the ongoing human-caused warming of the planet, the U.N. summit and the politics of climate denial and inaction going into the U.S. midterm elections: www.bbc.com/live

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T21:18:31.801Z

Climate impacts are not partisan. And caring about our homes, health, families, and futures shouldn’t be either.@fisherdanar.bsky.social & I look at what climate communicators can teach us about connecting climate change to the things people already care about most.Read more: bit.ly/4hHM9MI

Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2026-09-22T20:38:07.552Z

In case you missed it live, this session was recorded and is now available! Remarkably, it now appears that Hurricane Polo has likely become the fastest-strengthening East Pacific hurricane on record (from tropical storm to category 5 strength in ~30 hrs)!

Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T23:54:28.000Z

The incredible full day, high resolution view of Hurricane Polo today.

Dakota Smith (@weatherdak.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T02:53:14.394Z

An extraordinary high-resolution view of a Category 5 Hurricane Polo this afternoon, seen from NOAA-20.

(@cira-csu.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T23:29:29.351Z

Looking at all cases globally of both Rapid Intensification and Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI), you can see where #Polo falls on that scale (magenta star). It’s the 5th most intense in the NOAA record since 1980. 1/

Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T17:05:44.428Z

Crazy weather day today: Polo culminates its run from a 35 mph TD Sun PM to the 2nd strongest East Pacific hurricane on record (by pressure) today, HI has another tropical threat, flash flood emergency in NM, and a Nor'easter looms. balancedweather.substack.com/p/polo-under…

Alan Gerard (@wxmanms1.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T22:22:42.115041Z

"It's warming of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. That's it. That's what El Niño is. An unusually warm blob of water near the Galapagos Islands, 3,500 miles from California," Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social, @ucanr.edu climate scientist, told @jessicagarrison.bsky.social

Pam Kan-Rice (@ucanrpam.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T18:31:13.267Z

I offered my thoughts on the potential global implications of a likely record-strength El Niño event in 2026-2027 during the latest episode of BMO's Sustainability Leaders Podcast.capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/insights/…

Daniel Swain (@weatherwest.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T03:24:34.189Z

Our message to global leaders: we need #solar power everywhere by the decade’s end.www.theguardian.com/commentisfre…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T10:31:21.433Z

IRENA: Global #renewables capacity additions must double, but #solar PV potential makes this ‘feasible’. www.pv-tech.org/irena-global…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:23:05.874Z

There may be good reasons to build #solar panels over aqueducts and irrigation canals (location? access? temperature control? algae control?) rather than on adjacent land. But the #water savings are tiny. Really tiny.www.kqed.org/science/2002…

Peter Gleick (@petergleick.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T18:57:43.988Z

#Solar and #wind generation meet record 80% of power demand on #Australia national gridRooftop solar alone generates more than half of all power used.www.theguardian.com/environment/…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:21:11.903Z

India is producing more green energy – but wasting a lot of it. A decade ago India's installed #renewableenergy capacity was barely 4GW. It now makes up 300GW or 54% of its total 552GW installed capacity.www.bbc.co.uk/news/article…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:19:12.349Z

Vestas unveils largest onshore turbine to date. Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas has a 7.2MW turbine, its largest onshore #wind turbine to date.www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1970…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T10:07:45.592Z

In early September, the organization behind Canada’s push for small modular #nuclear reactors (#SMRs) quietly signalled their demise. www.theenergymix.com/rip-smrs-is-…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:16:12.290Z

International Energy Agency (IEA): Faster electrification can slash energy import bills by $US400 billion, cut global oil use by 18 million barrels a day.reneweconomy.com.au/faster-elect…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T09:25:26.836Z

Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington.Today, #Russia remains America’s top supplier of #nuclear enrichment services (the process that turns natural #uranium into nuclear fuel). This is odd …foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T12:16:16.217Z

Decommissioning #Scotland #Douraey #nuclear reactor still holds close to 1,000 uranium elements that swelled and jammed in place.Crews cut just 30 free last year …www.autonocion.com/us/dounreay-…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T10:06:15.093Z

"Stand Up for Science’s Climate Week Discussion Panel to Tackle Science, Democracy and Climate Tomorrow" via Char Bowling for #EINNews: uspolitics.einnews.com/pr_news/9442…

Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T19:33:38.173Z

AI Data Centres have yet another heat problem.www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202…

Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T11:58:21.886Z

A picture I took last night.Two things can be true.1. Gas prices are skyrocketing because of Trump's illegal war and that's bad for consumers and the economy.2. Gas prices should be higher because their cost doesn't include the massive environmental and #climate damages fossil fuels cause.

Peter Gleick (@petergleick.bsky.social) 2026-09-23T17:18:45.446Z

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