Extreme Temperature Diary-November 4, 2018/ Topic: Ocean Warming…More Alarming News

Sunday November 4th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing post will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials)😊.

Ocean Warming…More Alarming News

It’s hard to keep one’s chin up when you are constantly getting punched with both a left hook then a right. That’s what I feel like after seeing two big climate studies published last week. I presented the first that dealt with how climate pollution was affecting the jet stream a couple of days ago. The second one was a real succor punch to the gut indicating that we have less time to turn to green energy than was previously thought. Well, today I am presenting that second study, which says that the Earth’s oceans have absorbed 60% more heat than from prior reports. The article that I am linking is from Andrew Freedman who I have personally met and is a very good, balanced scientific writer:

https://www.axios.com/worlds-oceans-warming-60-percent-faster-than-thought-8660aeb2-ce59-40e7-be9a-ee7f36da4c5d.html?fbclid=IwAR08z9UeHTSOu-nO3voPt94CRcjOpbirwK4pn-i8TA9puZPR_PbN5zmAkMc

Quoting the first paragraphs of the Axios article:

The world’s oceans have absorbed about 60% more heat during the past 25 years than previously estimated, according to a new study published in the journal Nature. The study takes advantage of a new method that can serve as a whole ocean thermometer.

Why it matters: If the ocean is absorbing even more heat than observed, it would suggest future global warming will track on the upper end of projections — possibly as high as 5°C, or 9°F, by 2100 if emissions are not significantly curtailed.

The oceans are absorbing about 93% of the extra energy from increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

What they did: For the study, scientists, led by Princeton University geochemist Laure Resplandy and Ralph Keeling from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, devised a new way of taking the global ocean temperature. It relies on precise atmospheric measurements of oxygen and carbon dioxide, which date back to 1991.

  • The scientists examined the combined amount of oxygen and carbon dioxide in the air, which they term “atmospheric potential oxygen,” or APO.
  • Both of these gases are less soluble in warmer water, and as the ocean warms, these gases are released into the air, which increases the APO.
  • This contrasts with other methods that use millions of observations from ocean sensors, including buoys and ship-based instruments. These measurements have considerable uncertainty, particularly the further back you go in time.

What they found: The amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted by human activities before putting the goals of limiting warming to under 2℃, or 3.6℉, out of reach is about 25% less than what was previously calculated.

The above figure is from the PDF of the study linked below:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=I1EGGXMLtXi51c4n114xntRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PPM6F5Tw–xUcDaVyo5KYP7_G9gTDd9jkXQCGLmYVcdicsSjMOVjjnqoykMUbPx-KuFbGEw4tXNSki3umfu2JN88oJ-l4D77h2tn0cHLUqNpL7KzltfidpeEPoyGN9gb46QAVHTbw4dRHRYtwWG7Xz-eBDkA5I_oQ8QqVkcMLz-XcMI25oV9OThRMy9Bi5tYw%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.com

Once again we see yet another scientific publication answering two of my main overall questions for this site of “how fast” climate change is occurring, and “how bad” conditions could get for future generations. For both questions the new study spells much more stress for humanity that will be trying to adjust to a new, harsher environment as early as, well…today. If correct, with a rise of +5C above preindustrial conditions by century’s end, it’s game over for the climate and perhaps civilization itself. Don’t forget that scientific consensus for a stable climate is that global averages can’t rise above +2C above preindustrial conditions.

As of early November 2018 I see stark ocean warming just eyeballing the latest global sea surface temperature chart. I can’t recall this chart having as many or as large yellow and orange areas:

Yes, you can also make out the beginnings of the next El Nino west of South America. If the oceans warm more rapidly ditto for land areas and global ice.

It seems like we just can’t get a break in the climate news department. I’d love to see and report a peer reviewed study come out stating that the human race has more wiggle room to get it’s act together on the climate, but all I have seen since 1988 says no. We’ll keep taking those succor punches, but if and when expert scientists like Dr. Hayhoe or Dr. Mann become negative as far as hope goes, I’ll give up that ghost too. For now, I’ll just slink off into my corner of the ring after getting a bloody nose and get bandaged up, getting ready for the next vicious rounds of reports.

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For all you lovers of cold weather don’t despair. It looks like the dipole pattern will only get stronger by the middle of this month leading to a polar outbreak in the eastern U.S.

 

 

Eyeballing these forecast EURO model 850 millibar temperatures we could easily see some recird cold “ETS.” Stay tuned:

 

Here is  more climate and weather news from Sunday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity.)

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The Climate Guy

 

 

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