Monday August 24th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Earth Doling Out Wind And Fire…More Tropical Notes And Reports From A Flaming Hot West
Dear Diary. No. This is not your grandfather’s climate when the musical group Earth Wind and Fire had their heyday during the 1970s and 1980s. In 2020 we are having to deal with ramped up heat waves leading to conflagrations and stronger hurricanes because of an increase in sea surface temperatures. Therefore, mother Earth is doling out worse fires and higher wind.
The cases in point this week will be a continuation of the awful fires in California due to a heat wave I’ve named Beelzebub and a potential major hurricane in Laura bearing down on the northern Gulf coast. Today I will be listing Twitter notes with article links from experts in both climate crisis related events.
Here is more on Laura and Marco. The latest information, which will be updated during Monday, will appear at the top of this list:
Tonight's HWRF is more worrisome with more of a westward trend for #Laura. Still looks like a landfall east of Houston/Galveston, but ensemble guidance is way to close to this big city for comfort. pic.twitter.com/Wa20D7SfBJ
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) August 25, 2020
Excellent overview, Matt. You somehow manage to capture the key threat while calming frayed nerves. Keep up the great work! https://t.co/x9Nezpl10k
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) August 25, 2020
The center of #Laura continues moving briskly WNW this evening. It has made it second landfall in #Cuba near San Cristobal & will likely emerge into the Gulf of Mexico around midnight.
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) August 25, 2020
Curved bands suggests a healthy structure that should be relatively unaffected by land. pic.twitter.com/mpNmI7bmv4
Growing confidence that #Laura will hit the NW Gulf Coast (most likely TX or LA) as a hurricane, prob. at least Cat 2 strength. Key details may not sharpen until Laura clears Cuba and begins organizing in earnest tonight > Tues. Our latest at @CC_Yale:https://t.co/vbPNscvXIH
— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) August 24, 2020
Will the wake of #Marco limit the intensification of #Laura – or at least delay it? It's possible. https://t.co/2BcxPsylOU
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) August 24, 2020
New NHC Advisory has:
— Matt 😷 Lanza (@mattlanza) August 24, 2020
* A Hurricane Watch from Port Bolivar, TX-west of Morgan City, LA (incl Galveston Bay)
* A Storm Surge Watch from San Luis Pass, TX-Ocean Springs, MS
* A Tropical Storm Watch off the hurricane watch to San Luis Pass, TX and the Mouth of the MS River. pic.twitter.com/uqdmMmbwM8
1 PM #Marco Update: barely a tropical storm with 40 mph winds thanks to strong wind shear. Moving NW and will move over SE La this evening. Some rain and surge arrives later. #BeOn4 @WWLTV pic.twitter.com/zmPEgBaRb3
— Dave Nussbaum (@Dave_Nussbaum) August 24, 2020
The 12Z MON HWRF is trending stronger…now a solid CAT3 borderline CAT4 at landfall. This model continues to be consistent with a western or central Louisiana landfall from the Sunday runs. pic.twitter.com/gJu9WpCoDh
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) August 24, 2020
Per the GFS, shear over Laura peaked this morning. Moderate deep-layer N/NNE shear is forecast to continue through tomorrow AM, then becoming weak until landfall. The earlier it develops an inner core, the more it can utilize this favorable environment & rapidly deepen. pic.twitter.com/ARQIzE4oaS
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 24, 2020
11 am EDT Monday, August 24 Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Laura: There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast to the north-central Gulf coast beginning Wednesday. https://t.co/FyFu0bJzgQ pic.twitter.com/yqTTFp65ee
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 24, 2020
There's been lots of discussion on Laura's short term track staying south of prior forecasts – and this certainly has implications on its US landfall location.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 24, 2020
Using the EPS ensembles, a farther south track today is strongly correlated with a farther south/west landfall. pic.twitter.com/WnMO6V1sKV
So lets carry over this ensemble comparison to today for #Laura's track in the GoM. We see the same thing between the Operational GEFS (under dispersive) & GEFSv12 (more realistic spread) in the forecasts initialized at 06z Today. pic.twitter.com/nHeHPrjVMt
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) August 24, 2020
Sea surface temperatures south of Cuba and in the Gulf are seriously steamy… plenty of fuel for #Laura in the coming days. Hopefully wind shear will be enough to keep it from going completely crazy these next 2-3 days, but rapid intensification is not out of the question. pic.twitter.com/SWA6OYQlJt
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 24, 2020
#Laura has consistently stay south of official forecasts, but as of Monday morning, the last few forecast cycles are steady and doing well so far. pic.twitter.com/kwW4ZC1Vii
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 24, 2020
#Laura has done remarkabley well given its journey over hostile topography today. After another day with Cuba Monday, the growth game is its to lose. A long track across the warm GOM could allow it to blow. Laura has the upside to be our first major hurricane. Time will tell. pic.twitter.com/8e9pq4xyaE
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) August 24, 2020
ECMWF is suggesting shear to relax across the Gulf just in time for Laura's entrance. Ominous combination when SSTs are in the upper 80s. Willing to bet Laura gets its act together over the next 24-36 hours. pic.twitter.com/qY8wJOCF4P
— John Kassell (@JPKassell) August 24, 2020
#Marco is up first followed by #Laura. Not a whole lot of time between the two impacting some of the same areas. @GregPostel & I will let you know what to expect from both systems. Plus, LIVE reports from @JimCantore & @TevinWooten! Join us on the @weatherchannel. pic.twitter.com/iJGdOxPF36
— Alex Wallace (@TWCAlexWallace) August 24, 2020
Hurricane hunters are working overtime
— Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather) August 24, 2020
Between the Air Force Reserve and NOAA, FIVE different planes have or are currently surveying the atmosphere in and around #Marco and #Laura this morning pic.twitter.com/8DgSWPF7PW
#Marco and #Laura closed the gap overnight in terms of projected landfall points. Now ~150 miles apart as opposed to closer to ~250 miles yesterday. Close in space, but not in time.#Marco makes landfall tonight#Laura makes landfall late Wed night/early Thu AM
— Kathryn Prociv (@KathrynProciv) August 24, 2020
~48 hours apart pic.twitter.com/5d3YOCbew0
Though its center is exposed, tropical storm #Marco still bringing heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms to Florida's Emerald Coast. #flwx pic.twitter.com/NOJdOzng8C
— Greg Postel (@GregPostel) August 24, 2020
This morning's view of Tropical Storm Marco, approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast. pic.twitter.com/QYVJSQdarE
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) August 24, 2020
This morning's recon mission suggests Laura's LLC is near/underneath the new burst of convection south of Cuba, once again continuing the systematic trend of deviating south of the forecast track. The apparent LLC is south of every EPS ensemble member from yesterday's 12z run. pic.twitter.com/TjBDsMYtdU
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 24, 2020
An ASCAT pass of TS #Laura shows a new LLC forming between Cuba and Jamaica. This could have large impacts on the path leading to more time over water and less land interaction with Cuban mountains. This might the final LLC as there shouldn't be too many issues from here on out. pic.twitter.com/8NkLSJLKts
— Kaylan Patel (@WxPatel) August 24, 2020
A video of people climbing on top of short block buildings in Haiti to stay away from the flood.#Laura pic.twitter.com/on7rX1noCS
— Onz Chery 🇭🇹 (@Onz_11) August 23, 2020
Here's how the Atlantic #hurricane season in 2020 stacks up with the average hurricane season through August 23. Record-setting for named storms, well above-average for named storm days, hurricanes and ACE. Still no major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year. pic.twitter.com/JwlXHYFeFd
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 24, 2020
Growing risk for the next tropical cyclone in the 2020 Atlantic season, #Nana. This system will be pushing over the western Atlantic during early September. Another US tropical cyclone strike is possible with this event, but it's anybody's guess where that happens at this point. pic.twitter.com/2sJTea9ggx
— MJVentrice (@MJVentrice) August 24, 2020
Le #typhon #Bavi s'intensifie sur les eaux chaudes de la mer Jaune avant de longer l'ouest de la péninsule coréenne entre mercredi soir et jeudi (en même temps que l'atterrissage de Laura aux US). La capitale de Corée du Nord (Pyongyang) se trouve à proximité de sa trajectoire. https://t.co/xQRgSXZjbm
— Etienne Kapikian (@EKMeteo) August 24, 2020
28 years ago this morning, 922-mb, category 5 #HurricaneAndrew hit S. Dade County, FL. Here's the last radar view of the storm's intensely convective, "truck tire" eyewall, from the reflectivity-only WSR-57 on the roof of the NHC/WFO facility (then in Coral Gables), before… pic.twitter.com/M8p1kI9x5q
— Roger Edwards (@SkyPixWeather) August 24, 2020
Here are more notes from Monday on the western fires and Beelzebub:
🔥 Tomorrow at 9:00 AM,
— KQED Forum (@KQEDForum) August 24, 2020
We talk with @Weather_West about the link between #climatechange and California #wildfires.
❓ What questions do you have about the role of climate change in causing wildfires?https://t.co/Dykkz13Axv
New episode on the #CaliforniaWildfires…@lizziejohnsonnn w/ updates on the fires and how it's impacting firefighters and local residents@Weather_West on the #climate science and conditions behind the fires
— The Climate Pod (@climatepod) August 25, 2020
iOS: https://t.co/PDAgt3Qkai
Spotify: https://t.co/U2rNZ5wAqN
#Smoke continues to blanket the region, but with winds out of the south it has a more northward trajectory. In addition, the marine layer is trying to push into the coast.
— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) August 24, 2020
SMoke + fOG = SMOG
Check with @AirDistrict for the latest air quality information.#cawx 🎥: @CIRA_CSU pic.twitter.com/qA57pj5ZZA
Finally some good news to report: last night's dry lightning event was less widespread & intense than earlier feared. Nearly all lightning spared Bay Area, though there were strikes in Central Valley & western Sierra foothills that may have sparked new fires. (1/3) #CAwx #CAfire pic.twitter.com/bazfnHrICa
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 24, 2020
Also: we still aren't totally out of the woods in NorCal. Dry thunderstorms are still expected today, mainly in northern 1/3 of state but possibly clipping North Bay. These could yet spark new fires. But all in all, a better than expected outcome. #CAwx #CAfire (3/3) pic.twitter.com/sz1VIBXoJr
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 24, 2020
There's No Denying It
— Allan Margolin (@AllanMargolin) August 24, 2020
CA Wildfires Are Historically Huge & Getting BIGGER https://t.co/zN2HHoG8pB via @washingtonpost @EEN_Moms @CLIMATEMAMA @ClimateMuseum @CitizenWonk @citizensclimate @climateguyw @abbeludwig @peterhaynes1 @Pajjr2016 @TheRynheart @morgfair @DrStephensonN pic.twitter.com/kl0yBPqtq2
.@leahstokes op-ed: Last week, a heat wave baked the West. The cause is climate change: It has made heat waves five times more likely to occur in the western United States. https://t.co/e43NjsS7tp via @theatlantic
— Climate Nexus (@ClimateNexus) August 24, 2020
“Historically, fires in such forests stayed on the ground, rarely burning up the trees.”
— laura routh (@theowlinthewood) August 24, 2020
But during this past week’s fire that swept through the redwoods near Santa Cruz, CA, “crown fires exploded through the tops of the redwoods.” https://t.co/nHjaiujebb
Sorry to be the one to break this news to you but warmer than average with humid conditions will continue today…. Warming will continue through Thursday but the good(?) news is the humidity levels will decrease so it'll be a "dry" heat. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/MSm4cmVl2m
— NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) August 24, 2020
It's going to get very HOT today, that thinking has not changed. Hotter lower desert to approach 115 today and Phoenix likely to see 114 deg. Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect so stay hydrated. #azwx pic.twitter.com/rjq65AZ3CF
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) August 24, 2020
Ugh, another 90 degree low at Sky Harbor this morning. #azwx
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) August 24, 2020
Our horrible western ridge may be rebuilding over the West in early September and take up residence over California's current burning areas with the worst possible orientation. Stay tuned for updates on https://t.co/DqTUVZvnxD and those of @Weather_West. pic.twitter.com/7wcTDdaiu5
— Guy Walton (@climateguyw) August 24, 2020
Here is an ET from Monday:
Just tied the record high for Phoenix today at 115°! It's also the 13th day of 115°+ of the year. #azwx pic.twitter.com/qQh4T2CO8i
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) August 24, 2020
Here is more climate and weather news from Monday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) August 24, 2020
"Climate chaos: Extreme heat, wildfires and record-setting storms suggest a frightening future is already here" via Jeff Berardelli (aka @WeatherProf) for @CBSNews: https://t.co/PV1Oe4334j
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) August 24, 2020
#MondayMorning Reading – #ClimateAction: The fast-fashion industry…uses cheap factory labor… and can subject employees to poor working conditions while also wreaking havoc on the environment. To Take on the #ClimateCrisis, We Need to Change Everything https://t.co/1scTrsgX8d
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) August 24, 2020
The current warming spike is unprecedented in at least two millennia. Who knew? https://t.co/ul7fwiKCdQ
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) August 24, 2020
#MondayMorning Reading: #Investment + #EnergyTransition: "Renewable energy sources like #solar and #wind power are readily available alternatives…" Not to mention #energystorage: Major investment firm dumps Exxon, Chevron and Rio Tinto stock https://t.co/FP0Nt7JGAv
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) August 24, 2020
"Many more large methane plumes are being revealed than ever suspected. Most come from oil and gas facilities. A great many come from the Permian Basin in West Texas."@TXsharon I think you may have suspected…https://t.co/4V2fMdVJ3j
— Justin Mikulka (@JustinMikulka) August 24, 2020
#MondayMorning Advisory: #EnvironmentalJustice; the #EnergyTransition and refineries, and other issues that affect the communities and #health during this virtual summit on Friday. Check out the lineup: https://t.co/F05F80gDh9
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) August 24, 2020
As temperatures rise “extreme precipitation” will too.
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) August 24, 2020
Why? Because, simply put, air holds more water vapour as it gets warmer.
For every 1 degree of warming in the atmosphere, we see a 7% increase in water vapour" https://t.co/D9Pv6GcOyY
#MondayMorning Reading #CarbonCapture: "Anybody that thinks we can continue to burn fossil fuels for another decade, because we'll just do DAC, you know, down the road. That's not a viable approach." #Climatechange Removing #CO2 tech has side effects https://t.co/WZFmEVHyGE
— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) August 24, 2020
Record-warm Arctic summer no joy to wildlife
— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) August 24, 2020
"Nature is increasingly feeling the effects of the dramatic changes.
In small #Arctic town of Khatanga, locals in late July watched with bewilderment as herds of wild reindeer rushed through town streets" https://t.co/kFZbVQpJNx pic.twitter.com/OCmohBr3yG
In cities across the U.S., decades of racist housing policies have led to stark inequalities in who suffers from climate change. New piece with @PopovichN https://t.co/xVfXOv7YGq
— brad plumer (@bradplumer) August 24, 2020
How farmers are at the forefront of sustainable solutions.https://t.co/hDfTpBYaJF
— gardenandhealth (@gardenandhealth) August 13, 2020
Busy few days coming up with strong cold front to impact Great Lakes, Mid-Atlatnic and Northeast with SEVERE STORMS. Damaging wind is the primary threat. pic.twitter.com/x3f65MnF9D
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) August 24, 2020
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
LESSONS FROM A PANDEMIC – 16 septembre – @McGillTised accueille cette année le Symposium Trottier, avec un format en ligne! Conférenciers @NaomiOreskes et @MichaelEMann. Cet événement se déroulera en anglais. Inscription : https://t.co/4NZow3bnTv #TrottierSED2020
— IET (@EnergieTrottier) August 24, 2020
Analysis: What does it mean that most Republicans see the coronavirus death toll as acceptable? https://t.co/042Z0pq55U
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 24, 2020
BREAKING: A novel treatment has been discovered that can reduce COVID-19 transmission by up to 75%. It’s called wear a fucking mask.
— Sam Ghali, M.D. (@EM_RESUS) August 23, 2020
Personal freedom, distrust of science or plain old discomfort are some reasons people cite for eschewing face coverings during the pandemic.
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) July 31, 2020
Farmers credit Ivanka Trump's program with saving livelihoods despite criticism https://t.co/U4o2KUV0qu
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) August 24, 2020
It rips me up every time I read of another person who thinks COVID is a hoax, then loses a loved one and tells everyone it's serious. Please don't wait until this horrible disease wrecks your life to take precautions for yourself and others.https://t.co/I4f6YqcxIE
— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) August 24, 2020
White House Chief of Superspreading https://t.co/SfdGmU3SaF
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) August 24, 2020
SPOTTED @ Trump White House #WearADamnMask 👇https://t.co/IAeFQvQjNy
— Constance Boozer (@StanceBoozer) August 24, 2020
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”