The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Whiplash Weather Set To Strike U.S. With Record Warmth Followed By Late Fall Chill
Dear Diary. It’s been a while since I wrote a weather post simply because conditions have been mostly benign across the United States during the fall. Our climate isn’t so broken yet that all weather from week to week is eye openly bad. Weather a rise the U.S. has been good this fall mainly because the jet hasn’t buckled yet, which would usher in building cold air from Canada into the lower 48 states.
We are expecting big changes going into the heart of November:
First, we should see some eye popping warmth next week before the jet does buckle. This was expected over a week ago:
The GFS from the above tweet way overdid that bomb potential, though. Here is the latest forecast valid for Monday:
A strong system will be approaching the West Coast, but whether or not it achieves bomb status remains to be seen. What will verify is record warmth in the Plains and Midwest. 500 millibar heights above 585 decameters in November is rare I deed. Here is what we see at 850 millibars:
There is lots of anomalous red on the a I’ve map.
At the surface here is model temperature guidance:
Pick a spot anywhere from Colorado eastward to the Mississippi River, and there is potential for a record. Typically by the second week of November snow cover is starting to build in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes areas. We won’t see any at all through the middle of next week.
That should change once the jet buckles:
Snow will start to fly in the northern Plains as I expect that area of the country to be chilled down to typical ice box conditions, perhaps lasting through the rest of the climatological cold season:
Whether or not we see many cold records coming from the coming cold pattern remains to be seen. Because cold weather has gotten off to such a late start from the Upper Midwest into the Rockies without any snow I doubt we will see many. Time will tell.
Here are some “ET’s” reported this Saturday:
Here is more new October 2021 climatology:
Here are some more COP26 articles and news:
Here is more climate and weather news from Saturday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
Now here are some of today’s articles and notes on the horrid COVID-19 pandemic:
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Guy Walton “The Climate Guy”