The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: New Attribution Study For New York Storm
Dear Diary. In a world with what appears to be an increasingly short memory, I’m glad that climate scientists have recently come up with quick attribution methods for significant weather events. Attribution studies with short turn arounds do get more attention by the media and the public in general that has events fresh on their minds. One event, which most climate scientists like Doctor Katherine Hayhoe, that appeared to be a slam dunk candidate for being influenced by climate change was the recent New York City flood that I delved into here:
The big question here is how much did climate change exacerbate flooding? A quick attribution study was made over the weekend with some interesting findings that are found in the following Guardian article:
He added that while natural variability can deliver major storms, “human-driven climate change is the primary driver, underscoring the urgent need for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts”.— Brian McHugh 🌏🏳️🌈 (@BrianMcHugh2011) October 2, 2023
New attribution study on New York storm #ClimateChangehttps://t.co/sPQ8RGxClf
Type of storm that drenched New York is up to 20% wetter due to climate crisis
Rapid attribution study finds storm 10-20% wetter after city experienced a month’s worth of rain in just a few hours on Friday
A school bus drives in floodwaters at the FDR Drive in Manhattan on 29 September. Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters
Mon 2 Oct 2023
The unmistakable influence of the climate crisis helped cause New York City to be inundated by a month’s worth of rain within just a few hours on Friday, scientists have warned, amid concerns over how well the city is prepared for severe climate shocks.
A new rapid attribution study, released by scientists in Europe, has found that the type of storm seen on Friday is now 10-20% wetter than it would have been in the previous century, because of climate change.
Flash flooding soaked large parts of the US’s largest city, turning roads into rivers, following intense rainfall that broke records. John F Kennedy international airport measured 8in of rainfall in one day, the most since records began, while Brooklyn received a month’s worth of rain in just a few hours. People had to be rescued from swamped basement apartments, subway and bus services were canceled and sewage backed up in overwhelmed pipes.
Climate scientists have stressed that such pounding rainfall is a symptom of a warming planet, with a hotter atmosphere able to hold more moisture that is then unleashed in torrential downpours.
“Human-driven climate change plays a dual role, both intensifying these storms and warming the atmosphere,” said Davide Faranda, a scientist at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace in France. “Deeper storms yield more intense phenomena, while a warmer atmosphere can accommodate a greater amount of rain.”
Tommaso Alberti, a researcher at Italy’s Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, said that the extreme event that hit New York “aligns with climate change projections”. He added that while natural variability can deliver major storms, “human-driven climate change is the primary driver, underscoring the urgent need for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts”.
Global heating has fueled contrasting extremes in rainfall across the US. While much of the arid south-west has faced prolonged drought – punctuated by occasional disastrous flooding events – the US north-east, including New York, has seen a significant increase in heavy rainfall. The amount of precipitation falling in heavy events in the region has increased 55% since the 1950s, a federal government analysis has found, with climate change the main cause of this.
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania and author of a new book on the climate crisis, said that rapid attribution studies can miss some of the mechanisms that cause extreme weather, but that the increased threat of flooding was nevertheless undeniable.
“New York is experiencing a very clear increase in these extreme – more than 2in per hour – rainfall events, and that’s clearly tied to a warming atmosphere,” he said.
Such flooding can be deadly. In 2021, New York was hit by Hurricane Ida, which caused 11 people to die from flooding that seeped into the basement apartments where many New Yorkers live.
Following scenes where parts of New York again resembled a giant, fetid swimming pool, and less than four months after the city’s skies turned a toxic orange from wildfire smoke, questions have been raised about the preparedness of the metropolis, along with many other major cities, to escalating climate impacts.
“The sad reality is our climate is changing faster than our infrastructure can respond,” Rohit Aggarwala, commissioner of the New York City department of environmental protection, admitted on Friday. Pipes and drains could not cope with the flood water, while the leadership of the city and state – including the city’s mayor, Eric Adams, and the governor, Kathy Hochul – has come under criticism for responding too slowly to the looming threat posed by the rainfall.
“It’s clear that our cities and our aging infrastructure were built for a climate that no longer exists, particularly as a warmed atmosphere holds and releases more water,” said Daniel Zarrilli, the former chief climate policy adviser to New York City.
“This requires not only greater investment to deal with the new extremes, but also the creativity to think differently about design for when the capacity of our infrastructure is inevitably exceeded.”
Here are some other “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Absurd warmth in US-Canadian border;— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 3, 2023
List of October records broken in Canada👎
In Minnesota 88F at Int. Falls (tie) and Baudette (broken),but what it's shocking are the dozens records obliterated of highest Tmins in the 70s in Minnesota and North Dakota (Fargo)
Insane in October https://t.co/TKUHy2s0uc
#Augtober heatwave in #Ontario!— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) October 4, 2023
30.1°C Kapuskasing & Kemptville
29.8°C Nagagami & St. Catharines
Tmin 20.3°C Fort Frances!
More to come… #ONstorm pic.twitter.com/D4jNrYDv3f
#Europe is rewriting history,hundreds more records fell today— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 3, 2023
A thread later for Austria,Poland and Czechia
29.8 #Germany and dozens of records
including Cottbus,Dresden and Munich (list below)
Canary Islands:39.2 Tenerife Sur
France:30.2 Sablons,29.4 Annonay,28.1 Rochefort pic.twitter.com/0ZwEA19yEQ
Record warm nights in hundreds of European stations yesterday,see Tmins record in Germany below— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 3, 2023
More records Tmins
Also Tmax records in Belgium:
25.2 Florennes tied
16.3 Hanko Russaro pic.twitter.com/T7Kv3pwDWT
Southern Africa has seen an alternating of exceptional heat waves and cold spells (not that exceptional).— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 3, 2023
Yesterday up to 42.3C in the Namibian highlands and 40C+ in Botswana,Zambia,Angola and South Africa. Day before yesterday 43C in Mozambique.
More of the same ahead… pic.twitter.com/pasvtdcRb2
Extraordinary heat in the Americas,with records falling allover— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 2, 2023
40.1 Ebini ALL TIME NATIONAL RECORD 25/9
36.1 Montego Bay
Amazons Peru and Brazil also breaking records from Tarapoto to Manaus pic.twitter.com/nEuvPvjkSr
Here is some more new September 2023 climatology:
JMA confirms that it was the HOTTEST SEPTEMBER on record for Japan. The nation's monthly temp was 2.66℃ higher than normal, significantly surpassing the previous record of 1.51℃ set in 2012.— Sayaka Mori (@sayakasofiamori) October 3, 2023
JMA described this heat as "unbelievably very rare." https://t.co/xPJ7f1xDzb pic.twitter.com/AuKJjpO199
September 2023 in #Belgium was also the warmest on records:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 3, 2023
In Uccle the average temperature was 18.8C, +3.6C above normal and 0.4C above September 2006.
Some central areas had anomalies above +4C.
See map courtesy of IRM. pic.twitter.com/1agf8jZ9Vd
September 2023 in the Netherlands had an average temperature of 17.5C , +2.8C above normal .— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 3, 2023
In this case it was the 2nd warmest September on records behind 2006.👎 https://t.co/cZmTP7OhOB
ERA5 September 2023 monthly data are out.— Mika Rantanen (@mikarantane) October 3, 2023
I'm still struggling to comprehend how a single year can jump so much compared to previous years.
Just by adding the latest data point, the linear warming trend since 1979 increased by 10%. pic.twitter.com/AnNAbyUQwY
Here is More Climate and Weather News from Tuesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
"The planet’s average temperature shattered the previous September record by more than half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), which is the largest monthly margin ever observed." Read, be worried, then support rapid action:https://t.co/A4clRHbkom— Dr. Jennifer Francis (@JFrancisClimate) October 3, 2023
Special new Weather West post focused on our new published research: #ClimateChange will likely decrease environmental windows conducive to prescribed fire across much of Western U.S. (but not everywhere, and with some seasonal surprises!). #CAwx #CAfire https://t.co/mp819yzS75— Dr. Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) October 3, 2023
During this June to September period (summer), global average temperatures have been about 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the time of year.— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) October 3, 2023
BUT… this is not equivalent to it being a typical summer in a 1.5°C world. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/M2e1guaax8
“Between 2018 and 2022, weather and climate disasters cost more than $617 billion, it found — a record. Within the last year, 13% of Americans reported economic hardship due to severe weather events and disasters.” https://t.co/CgEyhjgVRv— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) October 3, 2023
A month with particularly large Arctic amplification – changes in October temperatures across the #Arctic by decade…— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) October 3, 2023
Data from @CopernicusECMWF ERA5 reanalysis available at https://t.co/e7aUafgc7S pic.twitter.com/NXOuNoA4gB
"Surviving the climate crisis – Michael Mann’s hopeful lessons from Earth’s deep history" | My conversation about #OurFragileMoment with @NewScientist: https://t.co/F4r7tfUaBP pic.twitter.com/ZwPfLEywC2— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 3, 2023
"We find that $143bn per year of the costs of extreme [weather] events is attributable to climatic change…Our results suggest that the frequently cited estimates of the economic costs of climate change…may be substantially underestimated"https://t.co/1vYieE3WAI— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans) October 3, 2023
Loved talking to an encouraging young leader about the importance of permafrost https://t.co/F9x09sVdXU— Christina Schaedel (@schaedelc) October 3, 2023
From our archives: Scientists say that abrupt shifts in weather patterns are intensifying, adding yet another climate-related threat that is already affecting humans and the natural world.https://t.co/HT7Pmfl7Yt— Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) October 4, 2023
'The era of global warming has ended. The era of global boiling has arrived'. UN Secretary General Guterres warns of 'unbreathable' air and 'unbearable' temperatures to come: https://t.co/M3rEsrU9c3— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) October 3, 2023
No time to wait. #ActOnClimate#climate #energy #renewables #EndFossilFuels pic.twitter.com/lrFuzKDK0H
Dear climate scientists:— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) October 3, 2023
"The reality of what we’re facing keeps me up at night. But I don’t think staving off the very warranted despair is helping anybody. So, I’m here to tell climate scientists — and my fellow climate journalists — to knock it off."https://t.co/YFF9HbHcKH
#TuersdayMorning Reading: #Agriculture vs. #ClimateEmergency: “The concern is if the trend continues, the approved insurance providers that are willing to step up may reach capacity and there could be limited insurability,” #Drought https://t.co/2trSuVR9XI via @SuccessfulFarm— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) October 3, 2023
A super-obvious climate adaptation action to take; it’s foolish to allow a Saudi firm to pump no -renewable AZ groundwater to grow food for cows in Saudi Arabia. https://t.co/CEEW7081Vv— Jeff Masters (@DrJeffMasters) October 3, 2023
On The Climate Brink, I explain what those who say "we'll adapt to climate change" are not telling you.https://t.co/NSrNpqpNVC— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) October 3, 2023
The planet is far off track from meeting its climate goals.— UN Environment Programme (@UNEP) October 3, 2023
This undermines global efforts to tackle hunger & poverty, improve access to clean water & energy, & many other aspects of the #GlobalGoals.
More from #UnitedInScience Report:
'I have found that it is the small everyday deed of ordinary folks that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love.'— Brian McHugh 🌏🏳️🌈 (@BrianMcHugh2011) October 4, 2023
Precedent setting herehttps://t.co/WqAJUHTMWX
Today’s News on Sustainable, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:
Super interesting new poll from @washingtonpost finds that 75% of Americans would be comfortable living near a solar farm, and 68% near wind turbines — a sign that the vocal opponents of those facilities in their communities are a minority: https://t.co/COxZGbi6OD— Sammy Roth (@Sammy_Roth) October 3, 2023
Just 100 companies are responsible for 71% of global emissions. We know who caused this crisis and exactly where to start if we want to solve it: https://t.co/jxjQp6m9N3— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) October 3, 2023
No time to wait. #ActOnClimate#climate #energy #EndFossilFuels pic.twitter.com/XU8pizrcZ3
It comes down to 100 multinational corporations — that's all. They emit 71% of the world's greenhouse gases, ruining our atmosphere and causing the #ClimateCrisis . Just 100 to target for change to save the planet🌏. https://t.co/LJMamCJ0V6 pic.twitter.com/vQebJni4Or— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) October 3, 2023
As clean energy goes up, fossil fuels go down.— Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) October 3, 2023
The problem is clean energy is going up, but fossil fuels & fossil CO2 emissions are not going down.
Policies are working on clean energy, but too few policies in place to reduce fossil fuels.https://t.co/LgTPssaAJE pic.twitter.com/wKKUGeTPOD
Sunak keeps saying households were facing £10k-20k bills, primarily because of the cost of moving to a heat pump. Here’s the second major energy company inside a month announcing a heat pump at a cost that is comparable and even lower than a gas boiler. https://t.co/1ulYIFBxOV— James Murray (@James_BG) October 3, 2023
More from the Weather Department:
Atlantic hurricane season has slowed, but the fat lady hasn’t sung.— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) October 3, 2023
She’s not even in the parking lot yet. We need to remain on guard.https://t.co/uz7hQ1Gax5
Do you smell the smoke and see the hazy skies? It’s smoke all the way from… checks notes… Canada! Who’s seen it’s worst fire season by a landslide. https://t.co/FZU1CkK5mi— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) October 3, 2023
Which regions have the highest odds of experiencing above normal winter snowfall during El Niño? ❄️— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 3, 2023
Blue shaded areas (🔵) on this map indicate places that have more than a 50% chance for experiencing above normal (>100% of normal) winter snowfall.
That includes New England,… pic.twitter.com/pv9c26iieh
More on the Environment:
Trees are among the most impressive creatures on our planet. Where they grow, they dominate the landscape and are the central building block of the ecosystem. Our global ecosystem would be almost inconceivable without the services of trees. They are worth protecting.💚🌿🌱🌲🌳💚 pic.twitter.com/1KL7dsDNF8— Green is a mission (@Greenisamissio1) October 3, 2023
Overall, the public owns over 100,000 acres of injured, young forest on federal and state land.— Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) October 4, 2023
We should restore these woodlands to help future generations, an op-ed argues. https://t.co/fTdRAeMGoX
More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:
Very neat study highlighting the ability of satellite interferometry to calculate extremely detailed maps of vertical land motion – the other half of the relative sea level rise. https://t.co/KzBZqSf5a6 pic.twitter.com/JQ6XvOvoup— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) October 3, 2023
Each human body contains a complex community of trillions of microorganisms— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) October 4, 2023
Do you know that not only do your microbes continue to live on after you die, they actually play an important role in recycling your body so that new life can flourishhttps://t.co/lefzI9K23W
Pictures of the park today.— Edgar McGregor (@edgarrmcgregor) October 3, 2023
Greenest October you'll ever see in Southern Califronia. pic.twitter.com/yqM0trnQyW