Extreme Temperature Diary- Wednesday October 4th, 2023/Main Topic: Welcome Pattern Change to Usher in Fall Temps and Tropical Protection for Eastern U.S.

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The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Welcome Pattern Change to Usher in Fall Temps and Tropical Protection for Eastern U.S.

Dear Diary. I have some great news for a change today. As warm as the planet has become during 2023, the climate still has not become so broken that a weather system can’t produce cooler than average temperatures for at least a couple of weeks across a given portion of Earth. The eastern half of the United States will soon see such a welcome change late this week after experiencing yet another “late fall” due to effects from climate change.

We will go from a heat dome pattern that has produced numerous records across the eastern half of the United States and Canada:

To one which actually might produce some record chill in areas that will see record warmth in the 80’s in the Northeast and Canada today:

A bonus from the pattern change will be protection from strong organized tropical systems, probably all the way through the remainder of October. Remember Hurricane Michael? That October 2018 CAT 5 Hurricane devastated portions of the Florida Panhandle and South Georgia. Remember Hurricane Sandy from 2012? That system devastated much of the Northeast in late October of that year. Many forecasters and climatologists contend that it would not have come as far west as the northeastern U.S. if it wasn’t for the effects of climate change. Michael also would not have been as strong if it weren’t for late season record heat ahead of the system occurring over the southeastern U.S. during October 2018.

Many in the climate and weather world have been astounded of record warm Gulf and Atlantic waters this year, fearing that they could lead to more late season tropical monsters affecting the U.S. While we can’t entirely rule one out a U.S. landfall going into November, at least this coming pattern change will afford the U.S. much needed protection via ushering southward and eastward dry cool air, jet steering currents that deflect systems away from the U.S. mainland, and jet steam winds that shear apart any systems that will try to organize.

Here are more details on the weather pattern transition from Matthew Cappucci:

A strong fall front is marching east, bringing storms and tropical trouble – The Washington Post

Fall front sweeping across U.S. to drop temperatures by up to 40 degrees

After delivering severe weather to the Plains, the front might draw former Tropical Storm Philippe toward Maine and the Canadian Maritimes this weekend

By Matthew Cappucci

Updated October 4, 2023 at 12:15 p.m. EDT

The cold front’s position on Wednesday morning. (NOAA/WPC)

The week began with record-breaking warmth over the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and much of the Great Lakes, but a strong autumn cold front is bringing a major change-up of the seasons. A shot of cool air from Canada is descending over the Lower 48, kicking up severe storms and heavy rainfall over the southern United States as temperatures plummet by as much as 40 degrees in some areas.

Across the nation’s heartland, the battling seasons will bring the risk of flooding rains and windstorms, along with large hail and a few tornadoes in Texas.

The same front will arrive in the Northeast late in the week, interacting with Tropical Storm Philippe as it transitions into a nontropical storm. Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible in portions of northern New England and Maritime Canada.

Thereafter, the pattern looks to favor continued cool weather over the eastern United States, with a renewed warm-up over the western and central states deeper into October.

Fall feel replacing record warmth

High temperature differences from normal Wednesday as predicted by the National Weather Service. (WeatherBell)

The calendar flipped to October amid record-high temperatures over the Corn Belt, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while extending north into Canada. Some of the heat expanded into the Northeast on Tuesday.

On Sunday, Sioux City hit a staggering 97 degrees, tying the Iowa October record. Minneapolis climbed to 92 degrees, beating its previous October record by 2 degrees. Across the central and southern Plains, highs in the 90s were widespread.

International Falls, Minn., near the Canadian border, had a record-tying high of 87 degrees on Monday, and a number of sites in Minnesota and North Dakota never fell below 70 degrees. Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., hit 83 degrees, its highest October temperature on record.

On Tuesday, record-challenging highs in the 80s stretched from eastern Minnesota to New York state; Duluth and Albany set record highs of 82 and 85 degrees, respectively. The National Weather Service predicts record highs on Wednesday from northern Michigan to Vermont, with forecast highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Alpena, Mich., Buffalo and Burlington, Vt., are forecast to set records.

But a cold front is surging east. As of Wednesday morning, it stretched from the Permian Basin and Big Bend of West Texas to the Oklahoma-Texas border to near Kansas City to Madison, Wis. It had already blown through Minneapolis, but the coldest air is lagging several days behind the front; while highs should peak in the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, the Twin Cities won’t make it out of the mid-50s on Friday and Saturday.

The same is true in Sioux City. After several days in the 90s, Friday’s highs should be only in the mid-50s. And even Sioux Falls, S.D., which made it to a record 93 degrees on Monday, shouldn’t climb above 51 degrees on Friday.

A cool high-pressure system from Canada will settle over the eastern Lower 48 into this weekend but should push east beginning Sunday. Winds on the backside of the clockwise-spinning high will turn southerly, reintroducing a warmer air mass over the Plains early next week.

Severe storms over the Plains

Storms erupted along the cold front across the Plains on Tuesday, bringing hail up to baseball size in Kansas. Osborne, Kan., also reported a wind gust to 80 mph, while Fairbury, Neb., gusted to 82 mph.

More storms are in the offing on Wednesday. A Level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk of severe weather was drawn by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center and includes portions of the Red River Valley along the southwest Oklahoma/north-central Texas border. The southern suburbs of Oklahoma City are in the bull’s eye, which stretches southwestward toward Lubbock and encompasses Lawton-Fort Sill and Wichita Falls.

The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. (NOAA/SPC)

The main concern will be large, destructive hail up to egg size with initial rotating thunderstorms that form. That threat will transition to damaging straight-line winds as storms merge into the evening hours and collapse southeast toward the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Both Dallas and Oklahoma City are under a Level 2 out of 5 slight risk. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Dallas could also be at risk of flooding rains, particularly given how poorly the city’s impermeable surfaces handle heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could accompany Wednesday evening’s squall line.

Philippe to become a weekend concern as it interacts with front

Tropical Storm Philippe as seen on Wednesday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

The front will not only trigger severe weather in central states but may also interact with former Tropical Storm Philippe this weekend, drenching parts of Maine.

On Wednesday morning, Philippe was located 200 miles north-northwest of St. Thomas, or 770 miles south of Bermuda. It had 45 mph winds and was drifting north-northwest at 7 mph.

Philippe has lived its life confusingly, defying forecasts and progressing much farther west in the Atlantic than initially predicted, bringing flooding to parts of the northern Leeward and Virgin islands. Now, meteorologists are calling for the storm to turn north — bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda on Friday — before undergoing “extratropical transition” and becoming a “post tropical” storm over the weekend. By then, it will begin deriving energy from the jet stream.

Tropical Storm Philippe forecast track:

The cold front sweeping toward the East Coast should draw post-tropical Philippe toward Maine and/or the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend, by which point it should have winds in the 50-to-60-mph range. While the storm’s long-term path is uncertain, heavy rains and gusty winds are a good bet in Maine as well as Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, with effects not unlike those seen during Tropical Storm Lee but probably somewhat less intense.

Atlantic hurricane season has slowed, but beware of October

The storm is forecast to curl northwestward over Quebec early next week, and its rain could help extinguish still-burning wildfires.

By Matthew Cappucci Matthew Cappucci is a meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang. He earned a B.A. in atmospheric sciences from Harvard University in 2019, and has contributed to The Washington Post since he was 18. He is an avid storm chaser and adventurer, and covers all types of weather, climate science, and astronomy. Twitter

Here are some other “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

Here is some more new September 2023 climatology:

Here is More Climate and Weather News from Wednesday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Today’s News on Sustainable, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

More from the Weather Department:

More on the Environment:

More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:

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Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

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